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March 7-8th Potential Coastal Storm Discussion


REDMK6GLI

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End of this week both global and US models are circling this time period for a potential storm on the EC. Still 5-6 days away and models will inevitably waffle but its worth discussing. Currently looks like there will be little to no northern stream interaction which may cause mixing/rain along I-95 however too early to talk P-types. Lets see if march can deliver us something before winter checks out till the end of this year folks

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End of this week both global and US models are circling this time period for a potential storm on the EC. Still 5-6 days away and models will inevitably waffle but its worth discussing. Currently looks like there will be little to no northern stream interaction which may cause mixing/rain along I-95 however too early to talk P-types. Lets see if march can deliver us something before winter checks out till the end of this year folks

Ready for more self-inflicted punishment so soon?

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You will have a +PNA and a favorable MJO to work with. This would actually be a beast if it were to phase as it's a very potent southern stream system. There's also just enough cold air around to work with, but only if it phases and rapidly intensifies going up the coast, big if right now. 

 

It's worth monitoring though. 

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End of this week both global and US models are circling this time period for a potential storm on the EC. Still 5-6 days away and models will inevitably waffle but its worth discussing. Currently looks like there will be little to no northern stream interaction which may cause mixing/rain along I-95 however too early to talk P-types. Lets see if march can deliver us something before winter checks out till the end of this year folks

Ryan , since its Sunday , I'm going to say a prayer for you and I wish you a speedy recovery.

I've heard hitting you're head against the pavement over and over takes time to heal. So I'm here for you bro.

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You will have a +PNA and a favorable MJO to work with. This would actually be a beast if it were to phase as it's a very potent southern stream system. There's also just enough cold air around to work with, but only if it phases and rapidly intensifies going up the coast, big if right now. 

 

It's worth monitoring though. 

If it only needed a partial phase Id actually be excited but a full phase required for a host at snbow , my hopes are up 1.789432 %

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Ryan , since its Sunday , I'm going to say a prayer for you and I wish you a speedy recovery.

I've heard hitting you're head against the pavement over and over takes time to heal. So I'm here for you bro.

Haha dont know if your referring to me starting a thread prematurely again or the fail of a storm tommorow? Either way thanks for the blessing and i dont think starting this thread was too weenie-ish atleast i do not think so. Either way your input in these threads is greatly appreciated and hope to not have the regulars bash me again for starting another thread for a storm 5-6 days out :lol:

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You will have a +PNA and a favorable MJO to work with. This would actually be a beast if it were to phase as it's a very potent southern stream system. There's also just enough cold air around to work with, but only if it phases and rapidly intensifies going up the coast, big if right now. 

 

It's worth monitoring though. 

How'd the MJO work out for tomorrow?

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Haha dont know if your referring to me starting a thread prematurely again or the fail of a storm tommorow? Either way thanks for the blessing and i dont think starting this thread was too weenie-ish atleast i do not think so. Either way your input in these threads is greatly appreciated and hope to not have the regulars bash me again for starting another thread for a storm 5-6 days out :lol:

Lol. I was. Just kidding . I don't like the threat. Think as the trough pulls back later this week there may be a center that sneaks NE.

There's no interaction w the NB so the 2 are cut off from each other. Think this would warm as you get closer. Then the trough will slide in behind It.

Just not a fan of it. IMO.

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How'd the MJO work out for tomorrow?

I don't know, maybe ask SNJ, Philly, and D.C. It's looking to work out pretty good for them. There was a point in time where today and tomorrow's storm might have cut and been an inland runner, but guess what it's not and a big part of that is the MJO. Just because it's not snowing in your backyard doesn't mean the MJO didn't work out. 

 

The -PNA is probably what didn't help for places further north, but don't blame the MJO. 

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There's a lot of activity around on the gfs for Day 3 and 4 in the southern/southeast U.S. Maybe we can get something to spring up with the PNA heading positive and the MJO still in Phase 8. It's probably a pipe dream but given the hundreds of miles worth of shifts in the past few days anything's possible. 

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Ryan , since its Sunday , I'm going to say a prayer for you and I wish you a speedy recovery.

I've heard hitting you're head against the pavement over and over takes time to heal. So I'm here for you bro.

Ya have to give him credit for persistence lol. Winter is coming to a close. If you look around you'll see this being the case. Yes it's cold right now but this weekends storm is an indicator so to speak. The "writing on the wall". It's been a hell

of a ride but the rides just about done folks.

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LI and New England special

 

I guess getting the track right will come down to the interaction with the northern stream. The

northern vort slowed down and dug enough let the southern creep further NW. But the northern 

stream on 12z was too fast and suppressed the southern low.

 

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I guess getting the track right will come down to the interaction with the northern stream. The

northern vort slowed down and dug enough let the southern creep further NW. But the northern 

stream on 12z was too fast and suppressed the southern low.

 

attachicon.gifNorth32America_msl_96.gif

Is that a possible 6-12 inch snow for LI and SE New England a real possibility ???

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Is that a possible 6-12 inch snow for LI and SE New England a real possibility ???

 

I wouldn't try for any details so soon since a slightly faster northern stream could suppress the low more than

the 0z is showing. We saw how short term changes in the forecast for today made big differences since

this is still 96 hrs away.

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