jnis Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Down to 9f in Mt Airy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chevychase Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 I'm in Chevy Chase, MD, just outside the city. As everyone has said, it was very hard to measure, but I measured a bunch of spots in my fenced backyard that averaged just shy of 5". I enjoyed this storm, partly because I was busy yesterday and missed the "10 - 12 inches!" predictions until I checked in here, where such expectations were being tamped down. It was a bonus when I thought it was all over late morning then picked back up when I was out this afternoon. (I'm clueless, but I think I've absorbed some pattern recognition from you all, so I did wonder when I woke up about 4 am whether the changeover was happening later than ideal for accumulations). This has been a great season. Our yard, corner lot that faces north and west, has had at least some patches of snow on it since the early Feb storm. Granted, at times it was just the residue of our piles from shoveling, but still! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Total ice rink outside. The thin layer of ice from this morning remains. It is hard to believe it is March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Feel obligated to post. Huge bust down here in the Cville area. Forecast was for 6-12 and only received 4.5". However that did get me to 20" for the year. Cville proper close to 24" for the season. Both are just above climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Kind of funny that after all of the talk about high ratios we ended up getting even less than 10:1. most associate higher ratios w colder temps and it's not that simple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 If the dry air pac man didn't bite a chunk out of duration this morning I think my burbs and dc could have added at least an additional 1.5"+. That was the only thing I see that was unexpected. The top 3" of my snow was high ratio. Best guess 15-1. My changeover occurred right on queue at 3am. I was hoping for 2am but blended guidance was for 3am so that was a win. I had 2 solid periods of good rates with a lull. If the lull never happened then I would have been right in line with my 6-8" call for my yard. All in all I enjoyed the storm very much. It was complicated irt to timing the changeover, how much would fall as snow, and where the max stripe would be. There were plenty of warning signs on the northern edge. I underestimated that because northern edge is rarely a problem here. There are endless examples so it skews expectations. Total qpf ended up lower but not by that much to call it a fail IMO. There was plenty of reason to believe qpf would be solid based on upstream reports. But clearly the airmass pressing down was undermodeled. I should have given more consideration there but I don't have much experience with setups like this. It was a very uncommon setup for late feb/early march. It was easy to hedge wetter but if this was mid jan we would have all taken into much greater consideration the potential for the storm to end up dryer than modeled. I never bought into a large area scoring double digits but on the flip side I expected higher totals just like most everyone else. As a whole I think my amateur analysis was pretty good wirh plenty of room for improvement and I leaned a lot in process. It was a fun and challenging track. I'm ready to do it again after a good night's sleep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 My bad, that was IAD. It was certainly tough to get measurements today. Wasn't quite sure where to go in terms of final call but the overwhelming majority of my measurements were between 3.5 and 4.25. Not terrible spread. Damn, didn't think I'd have to do this. I try to use mode...If I take 100 measurements in different places, I use the measurement that shows up the most. I want my total to reflect what I am actually seeing versus an average. Sometimes by using average or blending, your total is a measurement that doesn't actually occur very often if you stick your ruler in a bunch of different places. If I sample a good measuring area 20 times, and I get 4" - 12 times, 3" - once, 3.5" - twice, 5" twice, 6" once, 4.5" twice, that distribution is usually evidence of drifting. A lot of people will call that 4.25" which imo is a horrible total, as it never actually occurs a single time. The total is 4". You can toss out every other measurement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongRanger Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 a -0 dew report sounds more dramatic than +0 or just plain 0 http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/obhistory/KBWI.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Only partially a weather ob, but after 6 inches (scant) in McLean, my road is a sheet of ice, the kids are sledding, the adults are comparing selections from our wine cellars, and everyone is happy. The high end fantasies were nice in the models, but what we got was a great storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 I've studied obs for this storm...If you live in Fairfax/Loudoun/Arlington/Alexandria/DC/PG/Prince William/Moco and you don't live in Northern Moco, Ashburn/Leesburg, Gainseville/Centreville/Manassas if you measured more than 6" you probably over-measured. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 I survived missing my first storm since nov 89. The low totals helped but the days leading up to the storm was awful for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 I've studied obs for this storm...If you live in Fairfax/Loudoun/Arlington/Alexandria/DC/PG/Prince William/Moco and you don't live in Northern Moco, Ashburn/Leesburg, Gainseville/Centreville/Manassas if you measured more than 6" you probably over-measured. How does 5.5 for N Arlington compare? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 How does 5.5 for N Arlington compare? probably fine...it is between 4-6".... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 You talked about your measuring style last storm--which is why I tried it this time around. I used to do few measurements in reliable spots and take the average, but as you said, using mode allows you to use what you are actually seeing in the neighborhood. Today I took 24 in 8 distinct spots, and unfortunately got a tie with 3.5 six times and 3.75 six times. Most would have taken the high outliers (three at 4.5) but those only came in two spots. Not really representative at all of what fell in my area at least. it isnt easy in a city...and I don't think our way is spotter sanctioned but it is the best way...for me if I can't get a dominant total, I keep measuring until I do... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jnis Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 I've studied obs for this storm...If you live in Fairfax/Loudoun/Arlington/Alexandria/DC/PG/Prince William/Moco and you don't live in Northern Moco, Ashburn/Leesburg, Gainseville/Centreville/Manassas if you measured more than 6" you probably over-measured. I saw the official measurement for Damascus was 5.5" on the SW side of town. I'm NE of that ob and I measured under 5". 6" reports even up here may be a bit high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 16℉ here. Just came back in from a walk. Really cold out. The road is a sheet of ice. Cleaned my car off. Unbelievable how dry the snow is. I can't believe it's March. It just brushed off. This season has had some really nice quality, cold events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 13/2 clear skies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJ3 Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Only partially a weather ob, but after 6 inches (scant) in McLean, my road is a sheet of ice, the kids are sledding, the adults are comparing selections from our wine cellars, and everyone is happy. The high end fantasies were nice in the models, but what we got was a great storm.[/quote Good to see another McLean observer had close to six as well. I was careful but thought I was too high based on other obs near by. The last band really came thru for us. We never really had a lull either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Maryland College Park 2 hour delay. It is dangerous out there. Think this decision should be changed. Campus is a sheet of ice and roads are a mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 9 degrees here now, i wonder if we can get close to 0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 7.3 with -1 dew point out right now. house humidifier will be on all night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jnis Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Maryland College Park 2 hour delay. It is dangerous out there. Think this decision should be changed. Yes about dangerous...my son and I almost spun out on a ramp up in Mt Airy. My son was driving and he is a noob when it comes to driving in snow. The main roads seem fine until you hit an area that still has slush, which is now solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Yes about dangerous...my son and I almost spun out on a ramp up in Mt Airy. My son was driving and he is a noob when it comes to driving in snow. The main roads seem fine until you hit an area that still has slush, which is now solid. Feel bad for the commuters. Even the sidewalks on campus are a sheet of ice. They can still change it before 5 am. Glad to hear you are alright! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jnis Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Feel bad for the commuters. Even the sidewalks on campus are a sheet of ice. They can still change it before 5 am. Glad to hear you are alright! Thanks...drivers might get lulled into a false sense of security (like my son) and then suddenly get caught off guard on an icy stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Zwyts are you done for the year or you want more ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 3" for the day, 65" for the season. Currently 6/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 9pm obs:13.5* Beltway fine but other major roads are frozen granular as melting ingredients not working. Also, it takes a Long time to clean off you car as under that nice fuff is about 1/2" hardpack that will not come off in these temps until you warm up the glass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Dulles changed its total to 7", they gave into peer pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 I survived missing my first storm since nov 89. The low totals helped but the days leading up to the storm was awful for me Lol...low totals... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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