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Mountain West Discussion


Chinook

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nice.

I saw some lightning in the distance here, from 10pm-11pm.

 

We have a 30% hail and 10% tornado outlook for this area today. I haven't been on the internet since yesterday afternoon, so I could only guess. Now the CAPE is getting up to 1500 J/kg even though it's only noon here, and SPC-analyzed effective shear is up to around 50kt by Denver. 300mb winds are about 45kt.

 

tornado watch will be coming. see MCD 636

 

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 PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT   SUMMARY...WIDELY SCTD STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS   AFTERNOON/EVENING.  A SUPERCELL TORNADO RISK MAY ACCOMPANY 1 OR 2 OF   THE MORE INTENSE STORMS...IN ADDITION TO A LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL   AND SEVERE WIND GUST THREAT.
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Guys, I just saw my first tornado, ever, from my office window in North Aurora near 225 and Colfax. Circulation not on the ground, perhaps 1000 feet up. Hail around an inch, wind S then SW now W around 40 MPH here. (I'm the only one not in a stairwell... :) :)

I got some video before it got rain wrapped, but doesn't look impressive enough to post.

 

Circulation was about a mile north of here.

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newest warning info

 

----------

AT 314 PM MDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHEASTERN
  AURORA...OR 24 MILES EAST OF DENVER...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.  
  TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS CHASING THE STORM CONTINUE TO REPORT
  FUNNEL CLOUDS AND WALL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

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Tried to stay south of the hail as the cell crossed I-70 @ Bennett, I needed to go another 5 miles east, then north... Got too scared of getting wrapped up in hail, so I got off and went right. Sorry for image quality, was a little freaked out by what was on my left.

Sent from my RM-927_nam_vzw_100 using Tapatalk

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24 hour total precip was 1.20" at DIA (That includes a lot of hail)

 

SREF plumes showing that over 1.0" could fall again in the next two days at DIA

 

the GFS says something like 2" actually in the next 4 days

 

post-1182-0-70683000-1400786419_thumb.pn

 

radar estimates over 5" (hail contaminated)_ from yesterday

 

post-1182-0-19644200-1400786694_thumb.gi

 

 

 

 

 

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24 hour total precip was 1.20" at DIA (That includes a lot of hail)

 

SREF plumes showing that over 1.0" could fall again in the next two days at DIA

 

the GFS says something like 2" actually in the next 4 days

 

attachicon.gifGFS_3_2014052212_F96_PCPIN_96_HR.png

 

radar estimates over 5" (hail contaminated)_ from yesterday

 

attachicon.gif2014_05_22_06z_FTG_storm_total_precip.gif

We've been in a hole at our house with a bare 0.10" (corresponds well to the hole on the radar just SE of the Denver city limits) since Wed AM. Hopefully today.

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Welp, the wife and I had a trip planned out to Black Canyon of the Gunnison NP this weekend but it looks like we'll be heading south into NM instead because of this system.  Something about a couple of inches of rain and camping on top of a cliff that doesn't seem to sit well with us.

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