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March 2-3 Disco, Part III


stormtracker

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3rd straight RAP run that bullseyes DCA... 12"

We've quibbled for what seems like an eternity but the forecast really hasn't changed in almost all aspects. If it wasn't for the stupid nam we would have 100 less posts in this thread. 6-10 with upside as you go south. It's been that simple even though it's been complicated. Ian is right. Too much data causes more harm then good

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We've quibbled for what seems like an eternity but the forecast really hasn't changed in almost all aspects. If it wasn't for the stupid nam we would have 100 less posts in this thread. 6-10 with upside as you go south. It's been that simple even though it's been complicated. Ian is right. Too much data causes more harm then good

always

 

#stormafterthestorm

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LWX discussion snip:

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
354 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL TENNESSEE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG A COLD
FRONT AND BRING WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION TODAY. COLD CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE MAY AFFECT THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

 

-- Changed Discussion --

HERE AT FCST OFFICE IP HAS BEEN ACCUMULATING SINCE 2 AM...AND CHGD TO SN AT 320 AM. DUAL POL IMPLIES P-TYPE CHG LN NOW STRETCHES FM NRN FAUQUIER...SRN LOUDOUN...INTO NRN ANNE ARUNDEL. N OF THIS LN WL BE CHANGING TO SN SHORTLY. THE LN WL CONT TO SINK S...AND THE COLDER AIR WL INTERACT W/ THE HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AIR PRSNTLY OVR CENTRAL TN/KY AS THE MRNG PROGRESSES. HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS XPCTD TO BE S OF DC...XTNDG ON A LN FM SHD/CHO TO NHK. 8 TO 10" XPCTD THERE...ARND 5" ON THE MASON-DIXON LN. THERE IS ALSO A PTNL FOR LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS IN THE HIGHLANDS... ESPECIALLY HIGHLAND/PENDLETON CO`S. HIGH TEMP FCST IS ESPECIALLY TRICKY. THE CD FNT HAS SUNK TO THE VA/NC BORDER...BUT THE MAJOR PUSH OF COLDER AIR IS STILL BACK TO THE N. HIGH TEMPS FOR DAY WL LKLY OCCUR W/ THE START OF THE TDA PD AND THEN FALL THRUT THE DAY.

-- End Changed Discussion --

 

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I could be wrong but it appears the HRRR has been steadily narrowing it's precipitation shield, giving the northern burbs quite the sharp cutoff and showing a much narrower band of heavy accumulations to the south of DC.

D.C. doesn't look too far off from the max. http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/displayMapLocalDiskDateDomainZip.cgi?keys=hrrr_jet:&runtime=2014030307&plot_type=acsnw_t3sfc&fcst=15&time_inc=60&num_times=16&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR%20Model%20Fields%20-%20Experimental&maxFcstLen=15&fcstStrLen=-1&domain=t3&adtfn=1

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