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March 2-3 Disco, Part III


stormtracker

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I don't live in Manchester anymore. This year has been a disaster, I've generally been getting 1-3" while 20 miles south of me gets 6-12. Look at the pa season snowfall map at Ctp nws I'm in that screw zone in east central pa that's in the 20s while just south and north is over 50. Been a really rough year here honestly. I'm not getting fringed here though I doubt ill get an inch. I was talking about the Baltimore area. Sorry if a lot if guidance showed 12" and a run comes in with 6 that's a bad run to me. I wasnt trying to imply with "crap run" comment that it showed no snowstorm just its a more moderate one vs the hecs the euro and some previous gfs and uk runs had. I know it gets a but touchy near big storms so I'm sorry I ruffled some feathers.

 

I'd focus on the first wave coming through in the next few hours for you. You're on the northern side of its track, but it might give you a decent bit anyway, certainly more than tomorrow's storm will give for that part of PA.

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have no idea if it means anything, but Euro's 850 temp forecasts for 12Z this morning at PIT, IAD, PHL and ROA off last night's 0Z run were all 1-2C too cold vs. actual soundings

The euro has a cold bias.
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wxbell is run at a higher res so may be a little wetter

 

but generally the 12z suite shows between 0.7-0.8 for DC after 6z...most of that is after 9z.....so a lot depends on the flip...but I think 0.65" is a good consensus as snow with maybe 1/2" mix before that.....I think 6-10" is a very nice forecast for DC....

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I'd focus on the first wave coming through in the next few hours for you. You're on the northern side of its track, but it might give you a decent bit anyway, certainly more than tomorrow's storm will give for that part of PA.

that's getting eaten up by down sloping here. Might get some light snow that's about it. This is your storm. It's ok ill live just frozen water but I won't lie it's been a frustrating year that I hope I don't repeat again soon. Enjoy the snow down there.
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