NortheastPAWx Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 I'll go with my gut and others will go with theirs. Not falling for this mess again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 PSU, I think you're going to realize that a 7 inch storm in these parts is about as good as it gets, and when you get 9 or 10 it's a major storm. For whatever reason, the dynamics over much of PA are just not conducive for the excessive totals, but if your into adding up a bunch of advisory events and having a good snow pack it's not so bad. I am starting to realize that, not just from the one year I have been here now, but from looking at coop reports from the last 10 years. I was in Hazleton for 3 years in the last 90's and early 2000's and my god we got blasted with big snows regularly, a few 10" plus a year when I was there, the times sure have changed. I also got used to that living in northern MD. I know I would constantly be frustrated getting fringed and small snows living here so I am looking to relocate, yes I know its crazy but I am being honest with myself about it. Going to move either back to the Mason Dixon line area of 83 or to the Poconos where they still seem to be able to eek out a few big snows per year with their elevation assistance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 No, you proved my point...trend has been to miss this corridor whether north or south (primarily the latter). It has not been just bad luck in my opinion...I think part of the problem has been the general pattern in the Atlantic. The NAO state has not really been favorable, what has been driving the pattern is the Pacific. There has also been a tendancy for storms to remain progressive. In that pattern, when we are in a colder phase and the PV has been in a favorable location, storms have tended to slide south of us because they were progressive. When the Pacific relaxed enough to allow it, storms track north. We have been stuck in between the two predominant storm tracks all winter. We got lucky a few times and fringed a lot so it wasn't an awful year but definitely feel left out around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 The storm last week moved about 300 miles in 3 days. Remember when all of PA was in the jackpot zone? To be clear to those who aren't getting this...to say definitively what this next storm will do at this point is just wrong. Didn't we learn this lesson from that storm? Do you really think DC was bracing for snow 3 days before that storm? I think the models are likely stuck in between two solutions right now. They aren't sure, and neither am I, if enough energy is going to come out of the southwest to produce a storm up the east coast. They are splitting the difference and thus a weak storm on most guidance, UKMET and JMA the exception. I think if enough energy does come out to get a system going over the southeast, the h5 is likely to consolidate and bomb a storm out given the temperature gradient right now over the east. If not enough energy comes out there wont be much of a storm at all, I dont buy the in between idea. I also think this has huge impact on the later week threat. IF we get a bombed out low into the northeast early in the week it will suppress the boundary south behind it and the next system is a threat. No big storm and the trough will pull back into the midwest and we get a cutter. So its kinda all or nothing next week and its all up to how much of the energy in that trough comes out versus gets stuck back into the southwest. I honestly have no idea which idea is right, but my gut leans more towards a storm given the trends today and the fact that its March and we just saw a similar setup that ended up with a pretty amped system. This time the setup is similar but a few hundred miles south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 I don't know why you guys even bother trying to reason with them. They're going to piss and moan no matter what you say. They'll be sitting in a foot of snow and be crying about one ten mile stretch of Lancaster getting 15 inches and how they never get big snowstorms. If I'm staying away from this thread, this board because of that -- imagine how many non-***holes are doing the same? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Very excited about Monday's potential. The last shortwave that's a player is still in the Pacific, though, but once that comes ashore (tomorrow evening), the models should generally have a good idea of how this will play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 I don't know why you guys even bother trying to reason with them. They're going to piss and moan no matter what you say. They'll be sitting in a foot of snow and be crying about one ten mile stretch of Lancaster getting 15 inches and how they never get big snowstorms. If I'm staying away from this thread, this board because of that -- imagine how many non-***holes are doing the same? I try not to bite...truly, I do. It just gets so hard at times. I really do not wish to feed it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 Very excited about Monday's potential. The last shortwave that's a player is still in the Pacific, though, but once that comes ashore (tomorrow evening), the models should generally have a good idea of how this will play out. Kind of a strange 500 mb evolution. There's a cut-off low over the SW US and that shortwave over the Pacific will be coming onshore and may or may not phase with the cut-off depending on timing. However, the active Pacific wants to build another ridge over the west coast following that which may or may not break, causing the downstream shortwave to stay more positively tilted and less energetic. It looks like that shortwave will be over the Pacific NW region by 00z Saturday which would be about 60 hrs out. The last few threats (March 2/3 and 12/13) both had significant shifts on guidance before about 72 hours. So I agree that once we get to about 60-48 hours out we can be more confident in a decent event, if it looks good of course. For a more high impact event in central PA (i.e. like the 00z CMC), we'll want to see the shortwave phase with the cut-off and the subsequent ridge not build as much as today's guidance suggests. We're also going to want to watch that PV lobe rotating over southeast Canada which could impact the eventual track of the low (this same feature had a trough rotate in at the right time to push the March 2/3 storm south). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 I'll give this about a 10-15% chance of a significant snowfall for UNV-IPT corridor. If there were ever a winter for PV suppression on 17 March... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 I'm ready for the wind to calm down. This is crazy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 No, you proved my point...trend has been to miss this corridor whether north or south (primarily the latter). Careful, they are going to remember that storm back in December where we got 9" lol. I get what you are saying though, imby we are at 42 for the season and places in Lanco are in the 60s and 70s. How poorly have you guys done relative to climo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 13, 2014 Share Posted March 13, 2014 How poorly have you guys done relative to climo? sitting at 46" avg is about 38. Can't complain about the number but I'm a big storm fan and all the snow here came 2-4" at a time from being fringed from every direction. No jackpots. That and where I lived in md last year is at 75" with 4 storms bigger then any I had this year. Leaves me feeling left out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexP Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Well that didn't take long...my first sighting of an S&S snow map showing us getting 2 feet of snow on Monday. It looks like a Weatherbell map based on the Canadian. A friend of mine reposted it to facebook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Well that didn't take long...my first sighting of an S&S snow map showing us getting 2 feet of snow on Monday. It looks like a Weatherbell map based on the Canadian. A friend of mine reposted it to facebook. Oh God who let them back in the building Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexP Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I'm doing my best to discourage my friends from irresponsibly reposting snow maps, but it's too late. It's going viral. Dang it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Yep, just checked Facebook and the hype is all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 I'm doing my best to discourage my friends from irresponsibly reposting snow maps, but it's too late. It's going viral. Dang it. Just for the record I wasn't referring to your friends, it was more at the Stupid & Stupider Team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexP Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Just for the record I wasn't referring to your friends, it was more at the Stupid & Stupider Team. No offense taken. I've come to the conclusion that the typical consumer of weather information cannot distinguish between a model discussion and a forecast regardless of any disclaimers that might come with the maps. The sad thing is that some of my friends who post this stuff are really smart people. One of them is literally a rocket scientist, but he falls for these phony weather maps every time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Oh God who let them back in the building It just looks like they posted the model maps...no snow map from them? They even say " This is NOT a forecast. Its the GFS Model." so i dont see what the big deal is? we post the snow maps from the models all the time.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 sitting at 46" avg is about 38. Can't complain about the number but I'm a big storm fan and all the snow here came 2-4" at a time from being fringed from every direction. No jackpots. That and where I lived in md last year is at 75" with 4 storms bigger then any I had this year. Leaves me feeling left out. that's a bummer for sure.... especially if your old place has gotten a lot more, then again it's a pretty remarkable number of events to reach 46" without a big one, and I enjoy the little ones too. If you're looking for a MECS or more, I think next year could have better chances if ENSO works in our favor. A little OT... but out of curiosity, what compelled you to move all the way to Pine Grove while you still work in Baltimore? That's a hell of a commute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 It just looks like they posted the model maps...no snow map from them? They even say " This is NOT a forecast. Its the GFS Model." so i dont see what the big deal is? we post the snow maps from the models all the time.. We know that they are model maps, not forecasts. The general public doesn't exactly scrutinize all the information, they just see 25" and start losing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 that's a bummer for sure.... especially if your old place has gotten a lot more, then again it's a pretty remarkable number of events to reach 46" without a big one, and I enjoy the little ones too. If you're looking for a MECS or more, I think next year could have better chances if ENSO works in our favor. A little OT... but out of curiosity, what compelled you to move all the way to Pine Grove while you still work in Baltimore? That's a hell of a commute. love lol. Makes you do crazy things but she is amazing... She went with me on a snow chase last year to CT then helped me dig our car off the highway when we got stuck all without deciding I was crazy. I think I have to marry her. We are moving this summer though either to the poconos if I find a job up there or back to Maryland or at least a lot closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Ha, you got to make that plunge if she'll take you to CT just for a snowstorm! Good luck with it Hoff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 love lol. Makes you do crazy things but she is amazing... She went with me on a snow chase last year to CT then helped me dig our car off the highway when we got stuck all without deciding I was crazy. I think I have to marry her. We are moving this summer though either to the poconos if I find a job up there or back to Maryland or at least a lot closer. You found yourself a keeper bud Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Ladies and gentlemen, we just got NAM'd! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Ladies and gentlemen, we just got NAM'd!Sref look good too. Hopefully when I wake up the gfs uk ggem and euro will continue the trend. Nam can spit out crazy solutions so it won't mean much if globals don't follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Ladies and gentlemen, we just got NAM'd!We got Named! Wow let's hope it holds. Looks like 0z GGEM from last night. Not that extreme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Sref look good too. I would hope so, since the SREF is based upon the NAM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 GFS and NAM has a PA special on tonight's run. Love it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted March 14, 2014 Share Posted March 14, 2014 Ok, so lets look at the gfs and nam, look at the rest of the winter, and see why you can't throw out any solution 4 days out. Furthermore, I would have thought some people would have learned not to do this after the event a month ago ( the one where we were told anything nw of i81 was out of it 4 days in advance) or the event that busted a couple of weeks ago that showed us all getting a foot 72 hours out. I guess not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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