PennMan Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Time for a new one guys. Let's keep things on topic as this rather frustrating storm approaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 12z Canadian all snow and a decent hit from Rt. 22 south. Lines up well with CTPs watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 RGEM is a stone cold crushing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Good luck guys stepping aside for the rest of this one. At least this is gonna save my back with the snow blower down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 12Z GFS southern tier counties to DC special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Models continue to be running too cold actual temp vs modeled temp... but I think I finally figured out why GFS has been throwing out ridiculous low temps for MDT... it seems to think current snow pack has a liquid equivalent of 1.7" which is no where near close to accurate... is it running too cold and allowing the cold air to push south too quickly? or are we going to run into bigger p-type issues than we currently think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Models continue to be running too cold actual temp vs modeled temp... but I think I finally figured out why GFS has been throwing out ridiculous low temps for MDT... it seems to think current snow pack has a liquid equivalent of 1.7" which is no where near close to accurate... is it running too cold and allowing the cold air to push south too quickly? or are we going to run into bigger p-type issues than we currently think? One thing Horst has been adament about (the only thing at this point) is he seems convinced we will see rain...ice...snow, and in that order. Us southern folks who might be expecting all snow will likely be disappointed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Amazing how much false hope was ingected into most of our brains the past few days.. Times like these are the worst thing about having access to model guidance. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 One thing Horst has been adament about (the only thing at this point) is he seems convinced we will see rain...ice...snow, and in that order. Us southern folks who might be expecting all snow will likely be disappointed. It's going to start as a mix, but it will only last a few hour in some of the lighter precip. He still thinks 6"+ is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 It's going to start as a mix, but it will only last a few hour in some of the lighter precip. He still thinks 6"+ is possible. Correct...point being no one should look at total QPF and think that it is all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Dang need 50-75 mile north shift yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 One thing Horst has been adament about (the only thing at this point) is he seems convinced we will see rain...ice...snow, and in that order. Us southern folks who might be expecting all snow will likely be disappointed. I expect to see a few hours (2-4 hrs) of icy mix and then over to snow with temps crashing. I can see high ratio type event final 4-6 hrs. of storm. I still like my 8-12" call for southern tier. Eric has played his cards very well this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexP Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Does anybody have a good handle on the timing of this thing? Yesterday I told a coworker that he would have no problem going to the Hershey Bears game tomorrow afternoon, but now I'm seeing that it might start early enough to make things tricky as early as tomorrow evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 IWM snow map zoomed in with the PA counties overlaid over it. Green is 1-3 White/Blue is 3-6 Pink/Red is 6-12 Yellow is 12+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Does anybody have a good handle on the timing of this thing? Yesterday I told a coworker that he would have no problem going to the Hershey Bears game tomorrow afternoon, but now I'm seeing that it might start early enough to make things tricky as early as tomorrow evening. It gets iffy after 10:00 pm to midnight. Beforehand you will be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 IWM snow map zoomed in with the PA counties overlaid over it. USA_ASNOWI48_sfc_060.jpg Green is 1-3 White/Blue is 3-6 Pink/Red is 6-12 Yellow is 12+ Funny looks exactly like euros sharp cut off last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 IWM snow map zoomed in with the PA counties overlaid over it. USA_ASNOWI48_sfc_060.jpg Green is 1-3 White/Blue is 3-6 Pink/Red is 6-12 Yellow is 12+ Nice map! How did you get the county overlays? Wish the standard maps had those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Nice map! How did you get the county overlays? Wish the standard maps had those. Thanks. Photoshop drag and drop, resize, and adjust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I have this odd feeling, and I don't know why, I guess do to this storm's complexity, that this is going to bust horribly somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pirates21 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I have this odd feeling, and I don't know why, I guess do to this storm's complexity, that this is going to bust horribly somewhere. I think youre right...I have an uneasy feeling about the outcome of this for our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I have this odd feeling, and I don't know why, I guess do to this storm's complexity, that this is going to bust horribly somewhere. do you know what the current liquid equivalent for snow cover around state college is right now? the cold model temperatures have me interested but some other mets are saying they dont see an issue/not cold enough with storm... most of PA is at or near forecast highs for today already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I have this odd feeling, and I don't know why, I guess do to this storm's complexity, that this is going to bust horribly somewhere. Exactly why NO one should be making definitive comments one way or another. There is no "sure thing" with this yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I have this odd feeling, and I don't know why, I guess do to this storm's complexity, that this is going to bust horribly somewhere. If anything, Jamie, I think it would bust better for us, and bad for down south. That's my "gut" feeling to your "gut" feeling. As we all know the models can show whatever they want to, but in the end, the weather is going to do what the weather going to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I have this odd feeling, and I don't know why, I guess do to this storm's complexity, that this is going to bust horribly somewhere. Well, we do know March for its busts as we do its blizzards... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Exactly why NO one should be making definitive comments one way or another. There is no "sure thing" with this yet. Nothing is sure in life. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Anything on next week's system? I know GFS has been OTS but... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Anything on next week's system? I know GFS has been OTS but... I'm actually kind of rooting against that one to be honest. I have plans to head for home next Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 If anything, Jamie, I think it would bust better for us, and bad for down south. That's my "gut" feeling to your "gut" feeling. As we all know the models can show whatever they want to, but in the end, the weather is going to do what the weather going to do.. If the models have finally stopped the trend of dumping more energy into the lead wave then I do think from here out we see a small bleed north but that pv means business so there will be a sharp cutoff somewhere. Kinda like the 2010 early feb storm. Question cause I was in md then, didnt the feb 5 2010 storm trend a little north the last 36 hours? At least I seem to remember from 48 hours out the sharp cutoff was close to the md line but it ended up just north of Harrisburg. Does anyone Rembrandt that? This is a similar situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I'm actually kind of rooting against that one to be honest. I have plans to head for home next Saturday. Yeah. This one was definitely the "last hurrah" for me. I didn't even want this one until it was looking like it could be a MECS. Now, between moving farther into March and meteorolgical spring, AND the fact that the models "teased us" so badly, I'm definitely done with snowstorms until next December.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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