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3/6 - 3/7 Event is it this seasons last gasp?

WXinCanton

By WXinCanton,
in Southeastern States

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

Yup Larry, looks terrible with CAD, the upper energy is more progressive.  W and C NC will prolly do ok, but south of there....IMHO its about that time to write this off...NOT completely yet though...

 

 Overall, I also don't like this run vs. the 0Z Euro as it is clearly warmer on the frontend/CAD portion. However, I think it is far too early (four days) to already write the front-end/CAD IP/ZR off as it is still far different and better than the 12Z GFS/CMC/UKMET and just one run ago the Euro was really good for CAD areas. It could easily still adjust back the other way. Also, even here considering these 850's, some CAD areas may still get ZR/IP. Also, fwiw, the backend upper low related wet snow threat for GA/SC is a little higher vs. the 0Z run as it does show slightly below 0C 850's in small pockets of GA/SC on the backside fwiw though 2 meter temp.'s are above 32 verbatim fwiw.

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted

Major ice storm for GSO/INT (maybe sleet?) and even to the south/east, though it's a little warmer.  It's a little warmer, as you'd expect with the weaker/further north high.  850s run around 1C, so it's not too far off.  Probably heavy snows in the mountains.

 

C GA/SC might get some snow with the ULL.  850s crash to below freezing and surface temperatures verbatim are in the mid-30s.

 

The storm wraps up more and it's a little colder towards the end of the storm.  C NC is close to getting hammered, but 850s are 1C, so it's ice or rain.

Looks fine to me, although didn't look at 0z run.

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superjames1992

superjames1992

Posted
Posted

Hmm... Deformation band pounds central NC.  850s read out as 0C.  That might be wet snow and a lot of it.  2ms are are 31-33.

 

 

Looks fine to me, although didn't look at 0z run.

 

 

The 00z run was great.  It was solidly below freezing for many places and was close to an all-snow event here.  This run isn't much warmer, but it doesn't take a lot when you're borderline.

 

-----------

 

Lovely WeatherBell 12z Euro NC clown map totals for fun (DISCLAIMER: ENTERTAINMENT ONLY):

 

CLT: 9.5"

GSO: 10.4"

BUY: 12.2"

RDU: 11.1"

 

It should be noted that this is a terrible run for the mountains.  The deformation band pounds central NC rather than the mountains like at 00z.  That was actually an interesting solution.  If that deformation band was snow (and it was borderline), it would have destroyed some areas with a ton of snow.  March 2009-esque type stuff.

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted

Hmm... Deformation band pounds central NC.  850s read out as 0C.  That might be wet snow and a lot of it.  2ms are are 31-33.

 

 

 

The 00z run was great.  It was solidly below freezing for many places and was close to an all-snow event here.  This run isn't much warmer, but it doesn't take a lot when you're borderline.

 

-----------

 

Lovely 12z Euro NC clown map totals for fun:

 

CLT: 9.5"

GSO: 10.4"

BUY: 12.2"

RDU: 11.1"

If there is a strong closed ULL someone will have a chance. Still 5 days out and Euro does over strengthen lows at thus range, let's see come 0z tomorrow night.

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BIG FROSTY

BIG FROSTY

Posted
Posted

Hmm... Deformation band pounds central NC.  850s read out as 0C.  That might be wet snow and a lot of it.  2ms are are 31-33.

 

 
 

 

The 00z run was great.  It was solidly below freezing for many places and was close to an all-snow event here.  This run isn't much warmer, but it doesn't take a lot when you're borderline.

 

-----------

 

Lovely WeatherBell 12z Euro NC clown map totals for fun (DISCLAIMER: ENTERTAINMENT ONLY):

 

CLT: 9.5"

GSO: 10.4"

BUY: 12.2"

RDU: 11.1"

 

It should be noted that this is a terrible run for the mountains.  The deformation band pounds central NC rather than the mountains like at 00z.  That was actually an interesting solution.  If that deformation band was snow (and it was borderline), it would have destroyed some areas with a ton of snow.  March 2009-esque type stuff.

How about mwk James?

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superjames1992

superjames1992

Posted
Posted

How about mwk James?

 

3.6"... mostly ice, though (so maybe 0.5-1" of sleet?).  Just not a lot of precip up that way this run.  It will change.

 

----------

 

New CIP's day 5 analogs:

 

http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=SE&model=GFS212&fhr=F120&flg=

 

2/27/04 is on there, as well as 3/24/83.  3/2/2010 is also on there.  You might recall the meso snowbands with that one that dropped a ton of snow in some areas.  I don't recognize the others, but those were pre-2000 and thus likely not on the RAH NWS past events page.

 

CIP's mean and median snowfall totals paint the main snowfall threat from around Burlington to Charlotte and westward and into NW SC and NE GA.

 

COOPmeangfs212F120.png

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griteater

griteater

Posted
Posted

 Overall, I also don't like this run vs. the 0Z Euro as it is clearly warmer on the frontend/CAD portion. However, I think it is far too early (four days) to already write the front-end/CAD IP/ZR off as it is still far different and better than the 12Z GFS/CMC/UKMET and just one run ago the Euro was really good for CAD areas.

 

Just watching 500mb over the past 4-5 days with this one, the models have really been all over the place, especially with the pattern over SE Canada, and how the associated sfc high evolves.  Complex setup.  Biggest trend I've seen is that the sfc high is not moving as far south...but it's also not moving off to the east as quick

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

Just watching 500mb over the past 4-5 days with this one, the models have really been all over the place, especially with the pattern over SE Canada, and how the associated sfc high evolves. Complex setup. Biggest trend I've seen is that the sfc high is not moving as far south...but it's also not moving off to the east as quick

Grit,

Fwiw, here's my gut feeling about how strong I think the CAD high needs to be to just about insure a good IP/ZR for CAD areas on 3/6. Based on these last runs from the various models, the high would likely peak out ~12Z on 3/6 in the NE/SE Canada before slowly weakening. The 12Z Euro has it at 1038 mb. The 0Z Euro had it at a stronger 1041 mb and with significantly better results. The 12Z UKMET, CMC and GFS have it ~1034 mb and not in as good a position as the Euro.

I feel that if can get a 1044ish+ high at 12Z on 3/6 in a similar position to the 12Z Euro, there would VERY likely (say 80% chance) be a major and widespread IP/ZR in the CAD regions on 3/6. If the high is instead then at, say, 1042ish, I feel there would still be a 2 out of 3 chance. If the high is, say, more like 1040, I'd call it 50%. If 1038, I'd go with 33% chance. If, say, 1035 or weaker, I'd say virtually no chance.

Your thoughts?

Based on past major ATL icestorms, the average strength of high was only 1037 mb. So, normally a really strong (say 1040+) high isn't vital at all although a stronger high generally raises the chances. However, with the current situation, a really strong one is pretty vital.

Edit: 12z EPS vs 0z EPS: significantly warmer due to weaker CAD high. Not surprisingly, bogus clown has much less on it. Nothing good about this run. This definitely reduces the chances in my mind as of now. Let's see if reverses by tomorrow. Still way too early to call it off though no reversal by tomorrow would reduce chances to quite low levels.

 

Edit #2: The 18Z GFS is not even close to anything favorable.

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dsaur

dsaur

Posted
Posted

everyone sounds like they want to give up to soon.  can't this storm produce its own cold air plus the snow pack to the north of us, it won't take much to get a wet heavy snowfall with just a descent high pressure system.  

It's 4 1/2 to 5 days away, and models don't do cad all that well.  Don't give up until the ull is south of you and you have rain.  Ulls in winter are tricksy. :)  T

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Mark Dee

Mark Dee

Posted
Posted

It's 4 1/2 to 5 days away, and models don't do cad all that well.  Don't give up until the ull is south of you and you have rain.  Ulls in winter are tricksy. :)  T

 

Possibly this storm system and the one 3-4 days later will be better known for their convective / severe weather potential.

 

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Mark Dee

Mark Dee

Posted
Posted

What factors are you seeing coming into play that will make this system so substantial with respect to severe weather??

 

Very unusual to have a 110 kt jet over FL along with impressive vertical wind shear profiles above a developing Low.  Here are some comments from NWS offices in FL:

Talahassee

.Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]...

The main focus in the extended range will be on Thursday as a very

dynamic frontal system moves into the northeast Gulf. Strong Gulf

cyclogenesis will place a mature surface low somewhere along the

Panhandle coast by Thursday morning. Extremely impressive low and

deep layer shear values will be more than enough to warrant a

credible severe weather threat. The main uncertainty with this

system will be the exact position of the low and associated jets,

as well as the uncertain instability forecast. There have been

considerable model differences both model-to-model and run-to-run

with respect to the ultimate position of the low making it hard to

really make a sound prediction at this time. The only thing the

guidance can agree upon is the just how dynamic the system will

be. Therefore, the entire Tri-State region (especially north

Florida) should keep a close eye on the developing forecast over

the next couple of days.

 

Melbourne

AS SFC LOW TAKES SHAPE OVER THE WRN-CTRL GOMEX...ONSHORE WINDS

VEER FROM E-NE WED MORNING TO SE OVERNIGHT AND BEGIN TO

STRENGTHEN. SFC LOW DEEPENS TO SUB-1010MB JUST SOUTH OF PENSACOLA

BY THU MORNING...AND CONTINUES TO DEEPEN (~1004MB) AS IT MOVES EWD

INTO THE FL BIG BAND BY SUNSET...THEN ACROSS THE STATE AND UP THE

EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD STARTING EARLY FRIDAY. INCREASING

MOISTURE/INSTABILITY... COUPLED WITH STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER WIND

FIELDS POINTS TO POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE OF STRONG/SVR

STORMS IN THE THU AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING TIME FRAME. GIVEN THE

RELATIVELY DECENT CONSISTENCY/CONTINUITY BETWEEN THE GFS/ECM OVER

THE PAST 3 DAYS CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAN USUAL IN SOME MAGNITUDE

OF AN EVENT IMPACT...EVEN THOUGH IT IS 4 DAYS OUT.

 

Tampa

THE NEGATIVELY TILTED NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AT 00Z FRIDAY SUGGESTS

THAT IT COULD BE STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE GULF INTO

FLORIDA. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO PAINT A PICTURE OF CONCERN FOR

POTENTIAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT

INTO FRIDAY FOR MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WITH A

HEALTHY DYNAMIC SETUP FEATURING A 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET MOVING INTO

CENTRAL FLORIDA ON THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING...500 MB VORT MAX

ENTERING THE REGION...AND A SUPPORTIVE CONCURRENT 110 KNOT UPPER

LEVEL JET. WHILE THIS RUN DID NOT OFFER AS STRONG A LOW AS PREVIOUS

RUNS...THIS FORECASTED SYSTEM CAN STILL CREATE IMPACTS TO THE REGION

AND BEARS WATCHING.

 

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

Any word on 12z euro ensembles?

TW

 

 12z EPS vs 0z EPS: significantly warmer due to weaker CAD high. Not surprisingly, bogus clown has much less on it. Nothing good about this run. This definitely reduces the chances in my mind as of now. Let's see if reverses by tomorrow. Still way too early to call it off though no reversal by tomorrow would reduce chances to quite low levels.

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted

The 18z GFS was horrible, but a little bit colder for the northern Piedmont.  We get 33-34/RN instead of 36/RN. :lol:

 

LOL, I still think it would be surprising if the mountains at least don't get something out of it, assuming we get a closed off ULL.

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tarheelwx

tarheelwx

Posted
Posted

Should be lots of fresh snow from the nc/va border north which should enhance cad. If the hp is in decent position, I think you can factor in at least 2 degrees colder. As for the hp, I'd give up strength in exchange for position. Obviously, I'd like both.

TW

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superjames1992

superjames1992

Posted
Posted

Remember that ULLs can do some crazy, unpredictable things.  There's March 2009, of course, but there was also last year's January 17, 2013 storm where Greensboro and the surrounding area was being plastered by heavy wet snow while pretty much everyone else was getting heavy rain.  You just never know.

 

I believe Birmingham, AL got a big snowfall in April 1987 from a ULL, as well.

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