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CAD_Wedge_NC

March Banter Thread

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It sounds contradicting a little. RAH put out the graphic that shows RDU right on the line, but saying the best bet is mostly rain, but my local forecast says 1 to 3 inches of snow and ice overnight.

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I'll commit. We will get a small amount of front end sleet/freezing rain and then quickly turn to all rain. It won't be a big deal.

Agreed, 99% chance that's the best we do, LOL

RGEM looks sweet for 85 west snow for mtns. Don't have all details yet.

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RGEM colder, first run showing some frzn for RDU, we hover at 32F overnight. Has to be better for everyone west of here.

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RGEM colder, first run showing some frzn for RDU, we hover at 32F overnight. Has to be better for everyone west of here.

 

Yay. I was wrong. What will it take to get some snow around here?! We need that ULL to tighten up.

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It sounds contradicting a little. RAH put out the graphic that shows RDU right on the line, but saying the best bet is mostly rain, but my local forecast says 1 to 3 inches of snow and ice overnight.

 

OK, I was wrong about that. That wasn't the NWS forecast, but the BestForecast at Weather Underground. The NWS says some light sleet and freezing rain and thne changing to rain. What exactly is the BestForecast?

 

The funny thing is the NWS has a forecast high of 41 and it is already 38, while the BestForecast has a high of 44, and it is the one with the snow and ice for tonight.

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OK, I was wrong about that. That wasn't the NWS forecast, but the BestForecast at Weather Underground. The NWS says some light sleet and freezing rain and thne changing to rain. What exactly is the BestForecast?

 

My forecast is the BestForecast. :)

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OK, I was wrong about that. That wasn't the NWS forecast, but the BestForecast at Weather Underground. The NWS says some light sleet and freezing rain and thne changing to rain. What exactly is the BestForecast?

 

The funny thing is the NWS has a forecast high of 41 and it is already 38, while the BestForecast has a high of 44, and it is the one with the snow and ice for tonight.

 

How are you getting info from there if you don't know what it is?

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Yay. I was wrong. What will it take to get some snow around here?! We need that ULL to tighten up.

 

Well, we have seen some snow and ice storms here before that was supposed to be all or mostly rain and have little impact. The ice storm in Dec 05 was like that. And what happened with the Carolina Crusher in Jan 01? Was that busted because of more precip than thought or because it was colder than thought?

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Yay. I was wrong. What will it take to get some snow around here?! We need that ULL to tighten up.

LOL, it looks like 850 low was further SE, but on phone so haven't studied it yet. Doubt we get snow unless the HP was 100 miles west, LOL!

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Well, we have seen some snow and ice storms here before that was supposed to be all or mostly rain and have little impact. The ice storm in Dec 05 was like that. And what happened with the Carolina Crusher in Jan 01? Was that busted because of more precip than thought or because it was colder than thought?

 

What? I missed the Carolina Crusher in Jan 01?  I was here for the one in Jan 00...I hate it I missed the 01.

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Well, we have seen some snow and ice storms here before that was supposed to be all or mostly rain and have little impact. The ice storm in Dec 05 was like that. And what happened with the Carolina Crusher in Jan 01? Was that busted because of more precip than thought or because it was colder than thought?

 

It was cold enough. It wasn't supposed to produce much precip. It was supposed to develop far enough off the coast to spare most of the area any meaningful precip. But, it rapidly bombed out much closer to the coast, drew in cold air aloft, and destroyed central NC with nearly 2 inches of precipitation. It may very well be impossible for mistakes of that magnitude to occur with the technology of today. I don't know for sure if it would be impossible, but I suspect the modeling is better.

 

I guess I was wondering how accurate it is. I guess it is the wxunderground site's own forecast model.

 

Oh....I don't know that. I've never heard of it.

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What? I missed the Carolina Crusher in Jan 01?  I was here for the one in Jan 00...I hate it I missed the 01.

 

Yeah, I meant Jan 2000. And I meant Dec 02 for the ice storm. Anyway, I wondered how that was supposed to be not much of anything at first. Because of temps or no precip? And the ice storm of Dec 02. I think that was because it was thought to be too warm for anything but mostly rain.

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Yeah, I meant Jan 2000. Anyway, I wondered how that was supposed to be not much of anything at first. Because of temps or no precip? And the ice storm of Dec 02. I think that was because it was thought to be too warm for anything but mostly rain.

 

I know, just kidding around.

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I guess Raleigh isn;t central NC anymore.

It is the eastern Piedmont. Burlington is the central Piedmont and Greensboro is the western Piedmont (as well as Charlotte). Just west of Winston-Salem is the foothills...

I think Raleigh gets a few hours of freezing rain, but not a whole lot. The western Piedmont is prime CAD location, unlike Raleigh. I've seen us be the last ones to change over (even after the foothills) in these retreating CAD situations.

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Central NC is greensboro area.  Raleigh is only 3-4 counties away from coast.  Has to be eastern NC.

 

Greensboro would be the central piedmont. The coastal area is the largest area of NC. Raleigh is still central NC, but eastern Piedmont.

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Rain works for me here near Raleigh. Rather have that than more ice (and salt) on the roads.

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Yeah, I meant Jan 2000. And I meant Dec 02 for the ice storm. Anyway, I wondered how that was supposed to be not much of anything at first. Because of temps or no precip? And the ice storm of Dec 02. I think that was because it was thought to be too warm for anything but mostly rain.

 

December 2002 was not a surprise.

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December 2000 was great! Nothing like waking up to the sound of exploding transformers :lmao:

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December 2002 was not a surprise.

I agree -- I remember Greg Fishel showing a computer model a few days before that wasn't just showing pink colors for intensity of freezing rain in/NW of Raleigh -- it was dark pink and almost black at times.

I think the surprise was that most people didn't know what to expect in terms of damage and having never seen that much freezing rain before. It's not that they were calling for plain rain the entire event and it ended up as ice all of a sudden. Freezing rain/mix was in the forecast.

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Robert send to have backed off of his over excited tweets from last night! From major storm into SC and NGA. Now there are a lot of ifs and could be's, and maybes in his comments from this morning, but covers himself buy saying keep an eye on radar and temps!

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I agree -- I remember Greg Fishel showing a computer model a few days before that wasn't just showing pink colors for intensity of freezing rain in/NW of Raleigh -- it was dark pink and almost black at times.

I think the surprise was that most people didn't know what to expect in terms of damage and having never seen that much freezing rain before. It's not that they were calling for plain rain the entire event and it ended up as ice all of a sudden. Freezing rain/mix was in the forecast.

 

Yep. I remember following this one for more than the day before. I remember it kept trending colder and wetter, so it did look more and more severe as we got closer....but it was definitely going to ice.

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Robert send to have backed off of his over excited tweets from last night! From major storm into SC and NGA. Now there are a lot of ifs and could be's, and maybes in his comments from this morning, but covers himself buy saying keep an eye on radar and temps!

 

He still seems pretty bullish for Greensboro and west in NC.

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