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March Banter Thread

CAD_Wedge_NC

By CAD_Wedge_NC,
in Southeastern States

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Brick Tamland

Brick Tamland

Posted
Posted

So it looks like we will have plenty of precip in central NC tomorrow, and it is a thin line with temps for either all rain or frozen precip, but right now it looks like all rain.

 

I am going to have some hot dogs for lunch to bring the good luck. Maybe this will turn out to be a surprise wintry event, ala December 05.

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Hvward

Hvward

Posted
Posted

Any snow, or just rain and ice?

 

Clown map gives us 8.4" but I have no idea how much of that is snow and how much is ice.  Needless to say its an improvement from the last run where it had like 4 inches.  This storm is a toss up.  If we don't switch from snow until noon on Friday I think we will have a good bit laying on the ground, but that doesn't seem likely.

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted

I just took a look at old wx maps for 3/1-15 for the period 1969-2004 (2005-2013 not easily attainable). For the 36 years of 3/1-15's (1969-2004), I was unable to find anything even close to as impressive as what is about to occur in terms of a strong NE high with great CAD in combo with a Gulf low of any kind, Miller A or B. ZERO cases even close! I had suspected it would be hard to find, but this confirms it for me. Therefore, I feel that what is about to happen may surprise many folks in the SE CAD zones of NC/SC/GA. Also, perhaps the models won't handle the low level cold well. I think that the potential from this storm is being taken too lightly by a good number here...my opinion.

I didn't want to put this in the main thread and clutter it up, but I think this will be one of those situations where we will be underwhelmed with the winter part of the storm. Do I think some areas will see some snow or some front end sleet/ice? Yeah, sure. Heck, there may even be a few spots, outside the mountains that get warning criteria winter weather. But I think the majority of the precipitation will be rain for most areas...even GSO. Why? Just from watching these marginal events underperform through the years.

We tend to get all excited about these situations and look for ways the models might be missing something or underdoing the cold or overestimating the warm nose or moving the high out too quickly or tracking the low too far inland or underestimating the precip or underestimating the ULL or underestimating the dynamic cooling or not handling kicker correctly or whatever. I mean, that's part of the fun of all of this...finding ways where things could trend better. The models aren't perfect and they do have biases, of course.

But most of the time, from my observations -- not from any scientific evidence -- but just from my anecdotal observations, marginal situations tend to end up producing marginal events. Every now and then, we get what we all hope for, a complete whiff by the models and the anomalous, surprising winter storm. But in my experience those situations are few and far between.

The fact that we have a high leaving, a modest ULL, a decent but not overly strong surface low (which takes a GREAT track, mind you), and marginal cold air to begin with, all in early March, doesn't scream "bust to the winter storm side" to me. Unless the models are really wrong here on the cold air or way off on the ULL strength, I think it'll be cold rain for most.

I might turn out to be completely wrong. I hope I am. But, there are way to many red flags here and it's getting very late in the game.

I do appreciate the research that you do, Larry, and the data that you routinely bring to the board. The fact that you found no similar situation to this one means that I have to at least acknowledge the fact that I might be completely out in left field. So, fact acknowledged. I hope I am.

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jburns

jburns

Posted
Posted

I didn't want to put this in the main thread and clutter it up, but I think this will be one of those situations where we will be underwhelmed with the winter part of the storm. Do I think some areas will see some snow or some front end sleet/ice? Yeah, sure. Heck, there may even be a few spots, outside the mountains that get warning criteria winter weather. But I think the majority of the precipitation will be rain for most areas...even GSO. Why? Just from watching these marginal events underperform through the years.

We tend to get all excited about these situations and look for ways the models might be missing something or underdoing the cold or overestimating the warm nose or moving the high out too quickly or tracking the low too far inland or underestimating the precip or underestimating the ULL or underestimating the dynamic cooling or not handling kicker correctly or whatever. I mean, that's part of the fun of all of this...finding ways where things could trend better. The models aren't perfect and they do have biases, of course.

But most of the time, from my observations -- not from any scientific evidence -- but just from my anecdotal observations, marginal situations tend to end up producing marginal events. Every now and then, we get what we all hope for, a complete whiff by the models and the anomalous, surprising winter storm. But in my experience those situations are few and far between.

The fact that we have a high leaving, a modest ULL, a decent but not overly strong surface low (which takes a GREAT track, mind you), and marginal cold air to begin with, all in early March, doesn't scream "bust to the winter storm side" to me. Unless the models are really wrong here on the cold air or way off on the ULL strength, I think it'll be cold rain for most.

I might turn out to be completely wrong. I hope I am. But, there are way to many red flags here and it's getting very late in the game.

I do appreciate the research that you do, Larry, and the data that you routinely bring to the board. The fact that you found no similar situation to this one means that I have to at least acknowledge the fact that I might be completely out in left field. So, fact acknowledged. I hope I am.

 

Bingo.  I've pretty much moved on to other things.  

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FLweather

FLweather

Posted
Posted

I didn't want to put this in the main thread and clutter it up, but I think this will be one of those situations where we will be underwhelmed with the winter part of the storm. Do I think some areas will see some snow or some front end sleet/ice? Yeah, sure. Heck, there may even be a few spots, outside the mountains that get warning criteria winter weather. But I think the majority of the precipitation will be rain for most areas...even GSO. Why? Just from watching these marginal events underperform through the years.

We tend to get all excited about these situations and look for ways the models might be missing something or underdoing the cold or overestimating the warm nose or moving the high out too quickly or tracking the low too far inland or underestimating the precip or underestimating the ULL or underestimating the dynamic cooling or not handling kicker correctly or whatever. I mean, that's part of the fun of all of this...finding ways where things could trend better. The models aren't perfect and they do have biases, of course.

But most of the time, from my observations -- not from any scientific evidence -- but just from my anecdotal observations, marginal situations tend to end up producing marginal events. Every now and then, we get what we all hope for, a complete whiff by the models and the anomalous, surprising winter storm. But in my experience those situations are few and far between.

The fact that we have a high leaving, a modest ULL, a decent but not overly strong surface low (which takes a GREAT track, mind you), and marginal cold air to begin with, all in early March, doesn't scream "bust to the winter storm side" to me. Unless the models are really wrong here on the cold air or way off on the ULL strength, I think it'll be cold rain for most.

I might turn out to be completely wrong. I hope I am. But, there are way to many red flags here and it's getting very late in the game.

I do appreciate the research that you do, Larry, and the data that you routinely bring to the board. The fact that you found no similar situation to this one means that I have to at least acknowledge the fact that I might be completely out in left field. So, fact acknowledged. I hope I am.

 

 

:clap: +1

 

But I think the majority of the precipitation will be rain for most areas...even GSO. Why? Just from watching these marginal events underperform through the years.

We tend to get all excited about these situations and look for ways the models might be missing something or underdoing the cold or overestimating the warm nose or moving the high out too quickly or tracking the low too far inland or underestimating the precip or underestimating the ULL or underestimating the dynamic cooling or not handling kicker correctly or whatever. I mean, that's part of the fun of all of this...finding ways where things could trend better. The models aren't perfect and they do have biases, of course.

 

 

Amen CR. Agree... the mountains could get clobbered with heavy snow. But the foot hills & piedmont just not cold enough even for ZR. Unfortunately with a strong east flow aloft temps too warm everybody outside the mountains stuck with you. ^_^ 

 

All I got to say if it does bust like the AFD RAH put says could happen that would be one hell of a bust for the good. Considering its March imo its either CR or snow. Not much in between.

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BIG FROSTY

BIG FROSTY

Posted
Posted

It's in the forecast!!!  we'll soon see?

 

 

.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY THIS EVENING...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A
CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS AROUND 30.
NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE
MORNING...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE AFTERNOON. COOLER WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 40S. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE EVENING...THEN
SNOW...SLEET LIKELY WITH A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH POSSIBLE. ICE
ACCUMULATION AROUND A TRACE. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY...SLEET...RAIN LIKELY WITH A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN IN
THE MORNING...THEN RAIN LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. LITTLE OR NO
SLEET ACCUMULATION. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND
10 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT.
 

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted

I also have something wintery in my forecast(not much but it is something):

 

Thursday Night A slight chance of rain and sleet before 8pm, then rain likely between 8pm and 11pm, then freezing rain, possibly mixed with rain and sleet after 11pm. Low around 31. Northeast wind around 14 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. Little or no snow accumulation expected

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