ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 So we can only comment if we think this system is coming north Ok. Navgem came north. That is optomistic for snow lovers Their are plenty who see this as more likely to trend south of pike (not bc they are non scientific but that is what most models have trended last 36 hours? these ppl who are def still following it, bc one never knows at 3.5 days out . I think to imply they shouldn't post bc its essentially non snowier talk ignores the model trends and opens door to more wish casting and non sensical weenie posts imo. I didnt see anyone imply that they are out of game, more like odds are decreasing N of pike ATM You didn't read my post very well...I said "you have no reason to post in here if you aren't adding anything other than saying you think you are out of the game"....if you want to talk about why the storm is going to trend south and leave you out...that is fine. I'm merely trying to avoid the typical junk banter of 10 people posting the storm is done and nothing else every time a negative model run comes out. It is the same thing when we jump on people for saying "WOW!" or "wheeeeeeee!!" when a good model run comes out. Is there a reason you didn't mention us deleting those posts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 You didn't read my post very well...I said "you have no reason to post in here if you aren't adding anything other than saying you think you are out of the game"....if you want to talk about why the storm is going to trend south and leave you out...that is fine. I'm merely trying to avoid the typical junk banter of 10 people posting the storm is done and nothing else every time a negative model run comes out. It is the same thing when we jump on people for saying "WOW!" or "wheeeeeeee!!" when a good model run comes out. Is there a reason you didn't mention us deleting those posts? The posts that deserve to go, IMO, are the "X model shows 6-8", but nothing's set in stone and things can change depending on the next model run" ...over and over again. It's literally insanity. The same person/people do this and you know who they are, and THAT adds no value but isn't deleted. I'd rather see "wow" or "wee" pop up as it takes up less space. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 What the hell are you talking about ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The posts that deserve to go, IMO, are the "X model shows 6-8", but nothing's set in stone and things can change depending on the next model run" ...over and over again. It's literally insanity. The same person/people do this and you know who they are, and THAT adds no value but isn't deleted. I'd rather see "wow" or "wee" pop up as it takes up less space. Unfortunately you are in the minority. Time and time again we have to remind people about uncertainty in forecasting....clearly it is still a work in progress as we get people spiking footballs or cancelling storms 3-4 days out. We created a banter thread for the "wheee" and "wow" posts...so perhaps you would enjoy it more in there. We have tried to cater to both crowds...people who want more serious analytical discussion, and those who prefer emotional hyperbole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The posts that deserve to go, IMO, are the "X model shows 6-8", but nothing's set in stone and things can change depending on the next model run" ...over and over again. It's literally insanity. The same person/people do this and you know who they are, and THAT adds no value but isn't deleted. I'd rather see "wow" or "wee" pop up as it takes up less space. How dare people use a model discussion thread to discuss what various models are showing....my goodness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 GFS is brutal lol. Congrats Richmond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 18z GFS is almost a complete miss...maybe an inch or two...mainly south of the pike. The 00z suite sure will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 NAM is WAY North. Woop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 It gives Phil 1-3" Whee.... I still think something weird happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Man what is wrong with that model? LOL Once the energy comes ashore the Pacific is sampled tonight you'll see it come like 200-300 miles north at 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Model mayhem....just crazy.. 6z.GFS went from 12-16 for my area to 1-2 at 18z...wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 The 18z GFS looks more like WPC's qpf map from this afternoon, More of a weak FROPA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 RGEM is pretty far north at 18z...the meso models seem like they want to involve a more potent wave along the frontal boundary as it sags south...whereas the globals don't have much precip along it initially...and wait for the main wave to try and do the trick. I'm not sure why there is such a disconnect. I'd prefer to see a stronger more consolidated shortwave comng out of the southwest US on this and having it carry the brunt of our storm. Though the front-leadign wave idea on the meso models might end up being the better way to get snow if the main show keeps sagging south. Regardless, this is a pretty bizarre setup. My gut tells me we'll see it come back north because it is a potent southern stream , but we'll need to see that reflected on model guidance within the next two runs. If it goes even further south at 00z, then we're looking at not enough time to realistically get it back to solutions of 36 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Man what is wrong with that model? LOL Once the energy comes ashore the Pacific is sampled tonight you'll see it come like 200-300 miles north at 00z I didn't think us all the way down here had to worry about suppression-that run was crazy. I think it's overdone but we'll see. Up by you and then north might be a different story though. I though at the people who were "locking in" a foot of snow for NYC last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I didn't think us all the way down here had to worry about suppression-that run was crazy. I think it's overdone but we'll see. Up by you and then north might be a different story though. I though at the people who were "locking in" a foot of snow for NYC last night. I still feel south and suppressed is not happening. PV too strongly modeled and won't end up that far south. It's a southern stream system and those don't trend south. From here on out I think it will be very surprising if each run of each suite doesn't bump north . I still think mixing with sleet is going to get up near NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I still feel south and suppressed is not happening. PV too strongly modeled and won't end up that far south. It's a southern stream system and those don't trend south. From here on out I think it will be very surprising if each run of each suite doesn't bump north . I still think mixing with sleet is going to get up near NYC My hunch from the beginning is there was significantly more risk this ended up south and I'm still holding to it, I do think it's going to end up more north than the 18z GFS shows, the 06z GFS was definitely a hiccup and it's very possible the 18z is too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 My hunch from the beginning is there was significantly more risk this ended up south and I'm still holding to it, I do think it's going to end up more north than the 18z GFS shows, the 06z GFS was definitely a hiccup and it's very possible the 18z is tooWhile today doesn't support it.. I actually think sleet can make it up into coastal CT somewhere and that Portland ,Me sees a couple inches of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I still feel south and suppressed is not happening. PV too strongly modeled and won't end up that far south. It's a southern stream system and those don't trend south. From here on out I think it will be very surprising if each run of each suite doesn't bump north . I still think mixing with sleet is going to get up near NYC Not southern CT anymore? I'll take whatever. It's too cold to go out next week, so may as well take whatever (little) snow I can manage. But boy, what a change from 6z to 18z with this thing! Woke up this AM feeling pretty good for 6+ to SNH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 3rd or 4th storm in a row that's either disappeared,or gone south. Anyhow,Sunday may give us a consolation inch. Sent from my VS980 4G using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 First map I saw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 First map I saw. Yuck.. hoping for better.. going to lurk untkl things improve so I don't disappoint myself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 Harvey's map? Not looking good tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 28, 2014 Share Posted February 28, 2014 I think it is Mike Wankums Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I think it is Mike Wankums pretty sure Harvey showed that map at 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I think it is Mike Wankums I got it from Wankum's twitter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Well since he showed it I guess he agrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pjr Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 pretty sure Harvey showed that map at 6. That's Harvey's map.Just rewatched the 6:00 news . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I don't know what the phuck to think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I don't know what the phuck to think. Just follow Kevin's lead, he's on a roll this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Just follow Kevin's lead, he's on a roll this week. At least I got a snow squall yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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