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NEG NAO

March 2- 4 Snowstorm Potential

1,722 posts in this topic

As the hours go on the main bands of precipitation continue to get forced further and further south.

Can you explain how that effects

C NJ away from the coast?

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Snowing moderately still well after dark on Monday night for almost all areas. Surface is a little warm for Northern Central NJ and Eastern LI but 850's look cold. Ice for Philly area and southern PA extending eastward towards Sandy Hook. GSP from about exit 117 south looks like plain rain.

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Good improvements with the GFS over last night and early this morning. If this trends any colder, dare I say PD 2 redux? Rest of the 12z suite just got mighty interesting. If they trend colder too, then I'll start getting excited.

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This looks like a monstrous QPF producer and an ultra long duration event (days). Snow begins Sunday @ 7am and precip does not end until late Tuesday night. That duration is increadible (of course with lulls in between, but never completely shuts off). 

 

Verbatim the 6z GFS was 4-8" of snow, then sleet/ice, then eventually rain with the main low, but still would be a formidable winter storm even as currently depicted. And if it were to trend colder....look out.

ok Zel - I changed the title of this thread to March 2 - 4 ............

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long duration slop. we'd be lucky to get more than 2" on the ground at any time

Yes on this run but this run came in much flatter and colder. I wouldn't be shocked to see it trend more colder.

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long duration slop. we'd be lucky to get more than 2" on the ground at any time

who cares, better than rain.  and depends on location.  N and W of NYC could do quite well in this setup.  and it's just one of many possible solutions, 5 days out, this will change to some extent.

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long duration slop. we'd be lucky to get more than 2" on the ground at any time

Currently on the GFS it is not the greatest setup for copious accumulating snows. We'd need it to trend further south and colder to have some better/ snowier solution for the entire area. Saying PDII redux is not very smart that was walls of heavy snow and widespread 20"+ amounts with which no model currently shows

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I'd love to see the 12z GFS verify just from the magnitude of the duration. Quite honestly if the subsidence to the north was just a bit stronger this would have jackpotted the Mid-Atlantic. Colder probably equals less precip.

 

Ask the New England folks, Boston is barely 0.50" this run.

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Looks very 93-94 ish, the PV will be key in this setup as it could trend either way at this point. Very long duration and someone could really get a ton of snow. Hopefully it's not an icy scenario.

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I'd love to see the 12z GFS verify just from the magnitude of the duration. Quite honestly if the subsidence to the north was just a bit stronger this would have jackpotted the Mid-Atlantic. Colder probably equals less precip.

 

Ask the New England folks, Boston is barely 0.50" this run.

that's a concern too, that it gets shunted south and we get zilch b/c the PV is too far south.

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Early signs are:

 

Balt South: Some ice/sleet inland, mostly rain

Balt - Phl: Some snow (1-3), some sleet/ice, some rain

Phl-C NJ: Some snow (2-4/3-6), some ice/sleet, some rain

N NJ- S SNE: Snow (4-8+), some ice/sleet, maybe a little rain

C SNE North: Snow (more south, less north)

 

Course this will change depending on strength of Low vs. High

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long duration slop. we'd be lucky to get more than 2" on the ground at any time

yes thats what usually happens in March when you have boarderline temps - would be a different story though if the temps trend a few degrees colder which is still possible

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Ice storms in early March are not uncommon. The first few days of March are like an extension of February, like if February had 30 or 31 days.

but climatologically speaking much different than early jan-mid feb when they are most common

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who cares, better than rain.  and depends on location.  N and W of NYC could do quite well in this setup.  and it's just one of many possible solutions, 5 days out, this will change to some extent.

06Z GFS run had 5" of snow before the flip to ZR up here at KSWF

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yes thats what usually happens in March when you have boarderline temps - would be a different story though if the temps trend a few degrees colder which is still possible

Disagree, the problem on the GFS is 850 temps, the surface stays pretty cold.

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