MJO812 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Don't really like being in the jackpot 5 days out. Would rather have this be suppressed south on the GFS at this time range. 3 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 How much melting due to march subsurface magma issues? Not as much as usual, we're frigid heading into this event and temps are colding during. Ground is frozen solid right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Don't really like being in the jackpot 5 days out. Would rather have this be suppressed south on the GFS at this time range. 3 give or take as the event starts Sun eve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Don't really like being in the jackpot 5 days out. Would rather have this be suppressed south on the GFS at this time range. This is a day 4 event anyway, and that's a common misconception that needs to stop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 But the sun angle will kill all the snow, darn March. Not with the higher rates as depicted. Yesterday's 12Z run was far less encouraging based on modeled rates. Your comment, I hope, is in jest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 What's your snowpack up there? 30"? Heh, nope... well under a foot of glacial pack. I actually have less snow than Central Park on the season I think. you're complaining about 6-8? Who's complaining? The 12z GFS is the driest piece of guidance so far for northern reaches of this subforum. Edit: sans the DGEX, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 It's human weenie nature to want the solution that dumps the most snow on your backyard. Remember the GFS can't really see the Banding so local total can be much higher... 700mb looks nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I'll take the better organized vort, that will help to extend the storm out some as it moves away Monday night. The PV being in a good spot really helped out this run. The storm tries to come north but hits the brick wall and goes ENE. Great outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I'm hoping things trend south a bit to give us more wiggle room, I'm not terribly comfortable being near the edge 3 to 4 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CSheridan12 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 And now we sit and wait for the EURO to hopefully trend more towards the GFS so we can all applaud the GFS today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I'm hoping things trend south a bit to give us more wiggle room, I'm not terribly comfortable being near the edge 3 to 4 days out. This thing can maybe track 50-75 miles north of where it is now, the PV and the strong high to the north just are not going to let this go much further north than currently shown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I'm hoping things trend south a bit to give us more wiggle room, I'm not terribly comfortable being near the edge 3 to 4 days out.What are you talking about? This misconception that the models will tick north with every storm is awful. It's only happened twice this year so far inside of day 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 This thing can maybe track 50-75 miles north of where it is now, the PV and the strong high to the north just are not going to let this go much further north than currently shown Yeah, I actually think that as long as the PV positioning here verifies, it won't matter how strong the southern vort is. If it really ends up becoming amplified we'll just end up with a stronger coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 And now we sit and wait for the EURO to hopefully trend more towards the GFS so we can all applaud the GFS today! I suspect it won't budge very much. We'll have to see. At this point the gfs has been so consistent I'm willing to lean towards its solution more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 At first glance it appears the GGEM is more suppressed than the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 It's not a misconception, it's happened this year and in years past numerous times. If the shortwave trend more amplified or stronger then you can bet things can adjust north somewhat, but I doubt it'll be dramatic the way the pattern is forecast to evolve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 heck of a gradient on the GFS just south of Philly for snowfall totals This is going to be a typical SWFE type snow distribution-heavy snow down to a point and then huge cutoff due to ice/rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Jumped in here late, how long a continuous event is this progged to be, 12, 12-18-, 18-24, >24 hour? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Jumped in here late, how long a continuous event is this progged to be, 12, 12-18-, 18-24, >24 hour? From what I can see I would say >24 for most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Jumped in here late, how long a continuous event is this progged to be, 12, 12-18-, 18-24, >24 hour? Looks like >18 hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Jumped in here late, how long a continuous event is this progged to be, 12, 12-18-, 18-24, >24 hour? maybe 18-24 hours of light/mod precip -- this isnt one of those where you get the 2+" an hour rates as someone else mentioned.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 GGEM shows a 2 part system, first part is the initial front which looks warm, but then the 2nd part is surpressed ad dumps on DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I have a 7:25am flight out of EWR on Monday. Screwed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 GGEM shows a 2 part system, first part is the initial front which looks warm, but then the 2nd part is surpressed ad dumps on DC Just going to pretend we didn't hear that lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I have a 7:25am flight out of EWR on Monday. Screwed? As currently modeled, yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 The 12z GGEM is not half as bad as what a few are making it out to be, and the only thing out right now are those crappy black and white maps. Let's wait for something easier to read before we jump to conclusions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder7842 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 GGEM shows a 2 part system, first part is the initial front which looks warm, but then the 2nd part is surpressed ad dumps on DC Are you saying GGEM gives us no snow at all? Is this a joke? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I think you need to be almost into the Albany CWA before you have to worry about major issues. Sunday night might be a bit dry north of NYC but those areas do just fine on Monday and especially Monday afternoon. He is in the Albany CWA lol.. smh And all of us in Orange & Putnam border the ALB CWA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Won't ignore models like GGEM, but will always favor consistency over erratic variations from run to run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Are you saying GGEM gives us no snow at all? Is this a joke? No, it just surpresses the 2nd part a bit, it still has good moisture into NYC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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