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March 2- 4 Snowstorm Potential


NEG NAO

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The Euro has crapped the bed earlier this winter when the gfs was superior, as well as today's storm so the Euro is not a godsend model by any means especially in this time frame. It's often deadly within 3 days but it's verification scores are similar to the other models at day 5 and beyond. 

 

And don't give me if nailed the previous storm when it was further west either. That was a large, pure miller A, something the Euro tends to do much better on.

I think we have a chance here due to the western EPO ridge being so strong and forcing the PV south over the coming week. That could suppress the storm track enough to allow for a nice outcome, but if that setup weakens and it's more zonal, I don't see a way out of getting slop or rain and congrats-ing Lake Placid.

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I think most of the issues with the play by plays are the same issues as when I tried to do play by plays lol.....there is not enough meteorological knowledge injected into them. It is basically just the reading of images on maps hyping up a storm, just to pull it back when the model jumps ship. Even the reasons given as to why they say the models are wrong in showing such a solution really do not make much sense or validate anything. I personally feel as if unless earthlight or a met is doing the play by play, I cannot get anything more useful out of it than if I just looked at the maps myself. I enjoy that people are posting their opinions of model output, but just as when I have done it and been wrong in my opinions, it is very annoying to just sway with each model run and get everyone hyped up that might think those people doing the play by play are trained.....especially when they are arguing for pages and pages of the thread. It can be very misleading to the average hobbyist and turn the educated hobbyists away

Sent from my iPhone

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So two monster hits (GGEM and GFS) and one that was much warmer.  I dunno.  I simply look at the strength and position of that high and have a really hard time believing the precip gets that far N and temps that warm. 

 

Long way to go, but if I'm a betting man, I'd say the Euro Ens will be further S and E...

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So two monster hits (GGEM and GFS) and one that was much warmer. I dunno. I simply look at the strength and position of that high and have a really hard time believing the precip gets that far N and temps that warm.

Long way to go, but if I'm a betting man, I'd say the Euro Ens will be further S and E...

The Euro has a weaker high and north of where the other models have it.

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So two monster hits (GGEM and GFS) and one that was much warmer.  I dunno.  I simply look at the strength and position of that high and have a really hard time believing the precip gets that far N and temps that warm. 

 

Long way to go, but if I'm a betting man, I'd say the Euro Ens will be further S and E...

It almost always is South and East of OP.  I'll be curious how it compares to 0z ensemble.

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I've never heard of anyone using the GGEM ensembles for forecasting purposes. Taking a blend of the Euro and Euro ensembles will give you the best forecast 90% of the time. 

The GGEM ensembles have been pretty spot on this winter. They did especially well with the post Super Bowl storm.

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Here is a model for you, the 12z NAVGEM has zero precipitation north of NYC for the duration of the run through hr 144. It's normally known for being too far suppressed so that's a good sign.

CMC, GGEM, GFS have shown colder solutions with the EURO being ALOT warmer, it raises a red flag for sure TBH

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Have to chuckle at all the folks who were guaranteeing temps in the teens/low 20s, based on the GFS, as part of their argument for why sun angle won't matter.  Yeah, sun angle won't matter much if it's rain.  Bottom line is we're 4-5 days away and we're getting way too fixated on the details of each model rather than recognizing we have a major winter storm coming and we simply don't have good enough science or computing power to nail down what's going to happen with any certainty this far out (let alone 2-3 days out).  Sit back, relax and watch the models all converge (for the most part) on whatever the solution will be - those error bars will get smaller as we get closer to the event (just like the hurricane uncertainty cones they show - we need uncertainty cones on snowfall, lol). 

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Precisely, not a knock on anybody.  But details would be appreciated.  If this was a more localized forum then you could prolly get away with that.  But, liek i said if you have ppl reading from DC-BOS than a lil context goes a long way.

The fact of the matter is we have posters here from the Philly forums/ the Upstate NY/PA forums/Mid-Atlantic forums and New England forums. It's not that hard to give a general idea of what's going on outside of the immediate NYC area.

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Could the late Feb sun angle be effecting the euro pbp?  :popcorn: 

 

Since all the globals produce forecasts of high and low temps, year round, including during the 16 day period (the Euro control run) centered on the Equinoxes when the sun angle is changing most rapidly, I'm pretty sure insolation is built into the models somehow.

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