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February 28-March 3rd Winter Storm


Chicago Storm

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Today's recap (so you don't have to read pages)

 

-  Alek punted (shocker?)

-  Someone called this wave a cornfield storm

-  Everyone complained of a southward shift

-  Some dude went hardcore weenie and posted a lot of smileys and thought there would be a foot of snow or more

-  Some site called forecast.io popped up and changed snow totals for Detroit 3 times today

-  WXBell got called a weenie site with a lot of weenies and weenie related content

-  The above point about WXBell was then refuted

-  Someone misspelled non-sense

 

Other than that, no one really has any grasp on totals......

 

 

2-5" is the right call for Chicagoland... like it has been for about 48 hours

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your bullish calls have been doing well

Unfortunately, no science behind it. But I've seen Tom S. get these right plenty over the years. He is not all model driven. Seasonal trends and a little climo. to boot, and maybe some lake water makes me more positive. We shall see.

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When I was at work I saw last night's SREFs, and they were quite warm into 18Z Sunday. I think they had 40s for southern half of central Indiana with upper 30s around IND. Haven't looked at anything since.

 

15z mean is in the mid 30's at 18z Sunday for IND. Pretty wild spread though...mid 50's to low 20's.

 

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After reading this thread and looking at various model runs I still think I might do better at this stage by throwing darts on the upcoming weekend system.

 

IND has got the dart board out  :unsure:

 

Data continues to suggest that a winter storm will be a threat to central Indiana and the surrounding region this weekend. Precipitation will be likely as early as Saturday night, with snow favored north, and freezing rain/sleet favored further south, along with some snow. A variety of precipitation types may be experienced at any one location Saturday night through Sunday night, with any remaining precipitation transitioning to snow early Monday as the system exits the area and colder air filters in.

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Skillings love affair with his RPM model sometimes gets him in trouble

I could agree with that somewhat. But I've been watching Tom Skilling since 1984 long before the model plethora we have today. And if you missed thundersnow's earlier post Skilling admitted model consensus was south but other factors lead him to believe the models are too far south. I have seen him do this before. Lastly, can't name to many snows this year where his calls were crazily off base.

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I've been sitting by quietly since I have nothing constructive to add to the thread. I will say, though, that it is quite entertaining.

 

I have liked where I sit for several days and I still do. I just hope we don't get 'split' though, as Hoosier alluded to earlier. I've felt all along that in Indiana between US 30 and I 70 will see the highest total accumulations from all of the waves, maybe a little south of 30 in the western part of the state. Not a mby forecast, just kind of a model blend from the past few days. An ensemble mean inside my head, so to speak. lol

 

Bring it on, because now it's all about

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Maybe a stupid question, but is the SREF being skewed by the NAM's warm, strong north solution?

 

Op NAM is actually running colder than the mean. The skew is some super warm "other" outliers. Don't really pay it (SREF) much mind at that range anyways.

 

The LAF crew will enjoy the 0z NAM.

 

Hoosier approved.

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Firstly, to comment on a couple things, let me go ahead and do so.

 

That's not my real address, don't worry, I'm not that stupid lol. It's a generic one in Macomb. Secondly, in 2011, I think that was the event with like 5 to 7 inches or something? It's been a few years.

 

Now, finally, something reliable.

 

THE LONG TERM REMAINS CONSISTENT IN SHOWING TWO MAIN SNOW EVENTS.
ONE LINGERING FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH
LIGHT SNOW. THE BULK OF MODEL GUIDANCE OTHER THAN THE DRY GFS
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT ANOTHER 1 INCH OR SO OVERNIGHT IN MOST AREAS.
THIS LOOKS LIKE THE BEST SUPPORTED FORECAST AT THIS POINT AND HAVE
NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM IT. THUS...THE FRIDAY PM EVENT SHOULD
TOTAL 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS FOUND IN THE NORTH 1/2
OF THE CWA.

THE NEXT SNOW EVENT IS ON TAP FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.
THIS EVENT MAY ACTUALLY HAVE TWO DISTINCT WAVES/PERIODS OF SNOW WITH
IT...ONE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY IN THE NORTH...AND
ANOTHER STRONGER SURGE OF SNOW IN THE SOUTH 1/2 LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. SNOW RATIOS APPEAR VERY FLUFFY...AND IF WE HAD ZERO
WIND...WE MIGHT VERIFY 18-20:1 RATIOS AS SUGGESTED BY MODELS.
HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE A 10 TO 15 MPH SUSTAINED NORTH WIND...THAT
WILL CREATE COMPACTION OF SNOW AMOUNTS AND SOME DRIFTING AS IT
SHATTERS CRYSTALS. THUS...I AM MORE COMFORTABLE WITH A PROLONGED
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW...WITH ABOUT 1 TO 3 INCHES PER 6 HOUR PERIOD
SATURDAY NIGHT. A PROLONGED LIGHT SNOW OFFERS A CHALLENGE TO
FORECAST. IMPACTS WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW WARNING CRITERIA AS RATES
REMAIN SLOW AND WINDS NOT TOO HIGH. AMOUNTS COULD BE AROUND 8 INCHES IN
THE SOUTH OVER A 36 HOUR WINDOW OF TIME. THAT WILL LOOK LIKE A LARGE
AMOUNT...BUT AGAIN WITH RATHER MILD IMPACTS...MORE SUPPORTIVE OF
ADVISORY. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS MOST LIKELY THAT A PROLONGED
ADVISORY MAY BE USED FOR THIS EVENT IN THE SOUTH 1/2 FOR SATURDAY
LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

 

^^^This is what weather.gov said. I'll take my 8 inches. It's within my original guess.

 

12-20 is what the "inaccurate" site says :P Still full-on weenie, but toning it down :P

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Firstly, to comment on a couple things, let me go ahead and do so.

That's not my real address, don't worry, I'm not that stupid lol. It's a generic one in Macomb. Secondly, in 2011, I think that was the event with like 5 to 7 inches or something? It's been a few years.

I'll take my 8 inches. It's within my original guess.

12-20 is what the "inaccurate" site says :P Still full-on weenie, but toning it down :P

On behalf of all of us, keep toning it down...

And Macomb got a lot more than 5-7" with GHD

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Op NAM is actually running colder than the mean. The skew is some super warm "other" outliers. Don't really pay it (SREF) much mind at that range anyways.

 

 

Hoosier approved.

 

 

lol'd when I saw the NAM.  Within the realm of possibility and there are hints of a relative minimum on some other models even if location varies.  That being said, not worth getting too worried yet. 

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