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February 28-March 3rd Winter Storm


Chicago Storm

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GFS has been very consistent with respect to showing a solid W-E hit across the region. The Euro is starting to latch onto the idea as well. However the GGEM shows what could potentially happen if the polar vortex is too strong, as it suppresses the storm south and is weak too. It all depends upon the polar vortex location and strength as to how far north this can end up for the region.

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This is what I posted in the med/long range thread. I don't see any reason to change the outlook at this time.  At this time of the year the cold sinks to far south on the GGEM vs climo. 

 

"I've been watching the GGEM and GFS operational vs their ensemble mean forecast.  As we approach the 8-10 day period, their ensemble means show a southeastern ridge that is stronger than the operational runs.  The operational GFS up to the 23/0z run has been to slow to break down the ridge giving us up here a good snowfall.   The GGEM operational has been to fast to break down the ridge thus taking the storm track well to the south of this subforum.  The 23/0z run of the GFS now shows a big hit over the IA area, and I think that is close to reality.  After all, when we have had a cold dome of air over us this winter the track has favored ORD, LAF etc.  I don't think it will be any different this time around."

 

I think this is way to far south...

 

Edit this is a hot link and will change

 

SN_120-240_0000.gif

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Since we are doing bold Calls: Detroit area is getting it's biggest snowfall of the year with this system

 

With this being a prolonged potential, someone is going to get a lot of snow, northern fringes will certainly have some good ratios too considering how cold it could be. It really looks like a good share the wealth type setup.

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I'm up for one last hooray. 

That high pressure to the north is going to have to back off a little in order to give this system an opportunity to go negative tilt.

We don't need this to go negative tilt, if that happens it will miss most of us to the northwest, this is more of a flat wave.

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Have you looked at the maps? I mean maybe you should before assuming something incorrect... It is a west to east moving wave, it isn't a stretched vort along a front.

 

I've looked at them, but I didn't see it as a weak wave really. At least from a precipitation perspective.  

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Yes, we don't need a wave to go super negative tilt. This is a series of waves rippling through the flow over the baroclinic zone with WAA up and over it to start which could produce several E-W bands of high ratio snows. Then the last one could have a little more potential as it ejects out feeding off the thermal gradient as it moves ENE.

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gfsUS_850_temp_144.gif

 

taking a closer look at that area of difluence over Il and IN, the atmosphere is out of balance as the winds are separating over that area, in order for the atmosphere to remain in balance it has to replace that air from some where and that comes from the surface.  I wished the COD site had the 925mb maps and the Vertical Velocities, as I would suspect they would be huge.

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