dieselbug Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Yeah it looks like Central/S DE to SE NJ looking better by the hour...but as I experienced many times down here....the storm will edge further north, which would make things pretty dicey down here. (Sleet-fest.) 18Z NAM/GFS Soundings for GED (FWIW) still show warm nose above 850MB thru 12Z Monday. We shall see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 May be underestimating the polar vortex this year although it's hard to believe at this point in early March. For those with the always drift north at the last minute crowd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I don't see a shift north, sorry. All guidance has shifted south.I am finally caving and agree... this is not going to trend north. We are now less than 36 hrs from the start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I am finally caving and agree... this is not going to trend north. We are now less than 36 hrs from the start. The MECS 2 weeks ago went way north compared to even 12 hours out...36 hours is plenty of time. You're not going to see big changes, but with such a tight gradient, a 25-30mile jump would do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Looks like we may be getting more snow from the first part than the 2nd lol. I'm going to Cape May with a friend, so hopefully it doesn't trend even farther south.me too...going to visit the parents :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 The MECS 2 weeks ago went way north compared to even 12 hours out...36 hours is plenty of time. You're not going to see big changes, but with such a tight gradient, a 25-30mile jump would do it.won't matter when I'm driving and singing "On the Way to Cape May" tomorrow :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 If anything this should continue to trend south even a few ticks more as the PV has generally been stronger than modeled most of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 hey nowww... next weekend's starting to look more interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gump Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 hey nowww... next weekend's starting to look more interesting. Just in time to rain on the St. Patrick's Day parade in Seaside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Big bust potential for everyone. Not expecting more than 6 here, honestly. March storms are very different. I just wantes one historic storm before winter ended, may be waiting til next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Big bust potential for everyone. Not expecting more than 6 here, honestly. March storms are very different. I just wantes one historic storm before winter ended, may be waiting til next year. The bust potential with this storm is not related to the fact it is March---in fact most of us are dealing with the fact that the models have underestimated the PV,which is leading to a more southern solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
svh19044 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 It seems as though every storm this season has trended north a bit within 12-24 hours, so for those on the edge, I wouldn't sweat it. 6-8 for the cwa is an excellent call IMO. Even if it doesn't trend north and continues southward, I will happily take a 4-6" snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 GFS shows threat after threat in the LR, there are like 10 big hits on the EURO ensemble for late week, winter is far from over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treckasec Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I wonder what the people are saying in the Mid-Atlantic forum. Probably what I'm thinking. Surprisingly not. o.o Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plokoon111 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Eh I try not the look at the LR. It just ends up getting your hopes up. If you want to look at it, use it for eye candy and cautiously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 6abc new maps showing 10-14" touching PHL. LOL! Not sure what they are looking at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 6abc new maps showing 10-14" touching PHL. LOL! Not sure what they are looking at. Are they following the map the NWS released earlier? Seems that way to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 6abc new maps showing 10-14" touching PHL. LOL! Not sure what they are looking at. old data Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
svh19044 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 6-10 is a vast difference. 6" could rather easily verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Who cares what channel 6 says...We all see the same data they see, and we have the NWS for snow maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 At the risk of coming across as a weather weenie or weather weenie hater, I'll keep this short since I have only recently become a member of americanwx.... Does anyone have any input or discussion concerning the snowfall rates/hr and possibility of backbuilding on the NW side of the secondary wave upon exit off the lower Delmarva? My personal location is Barnegat, NJ. While I do enjoy snow, I won't be upset if we bust low or high here. ( Seen enough weather extreme during Sandy.) Having said that, I'm curious as to whether or not dynamics support for a stronger coastal backlash than anticipated for such a streamlined front rider. Any input is appreciated, as well as any SFT for coastal Ocean County. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Latest Wxsim with 18z data (which I really don't believe is ever to be used) has a general 5" to 6" event for NW Chesco....that said I fully expect this to trend north by tomorrow at 12z and get back to an 8" to 12" event for NW Chesco....just can't buy suppression with this one.....it will start trending north....would expect 0z to be just slightly but not importantly north of the 18z....the bigger jump begins with 6z overnight and by 12z tomorrow we will be back pretty close to the 1" qpf line being aligned along the PA turnpike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Latest Wxsim with 18z data (which I really don't believe is ever to be used) has a general 5" to 6" event for NW Chesco....that said I fully expect this to trend north by tomorrow at 12z and get back to an 8" to 12" event for NW Chesco....just can't buy suppression with this one.....it will start trending north....would expect 0z to be just slightly but not importantly north of the 18z....the bigger jump begins with 6z overnight and by 12z tomorrow we will be back pretty close to the 1" qpf line being aligned along the PA turnpike. Chesco, I always love your wxsim product updates, do they only show text stuff for your area, does it show anything for Philly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mookiemike Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Latest Wxsim with 18z data (which I really don't believe is ever to be used) has a general 5" to 6" event for NW Chesco....that said I fully expect this to trend north by tomorrow at 12z and get back to an 8" to 12" event for NW Chesco....just can't buy suppression with this one.....it will start trending north....would expect 0z to be just slightly but not importantly north of the 18z....the bigger jump begins with 6z overnight and by 12z tomorrow we will be back pretty close to the 1" qpf line being aligned along the PA turnpike. I've watched as you've done better in YOBY. Don't believe in suppression? Ask Mitchell about how dense and unstoppable that dome of cold air can be. You may not believe it, but for the first time your post comes off as wishcasting. It isn't written in stone. The energy in the West is entering the four corners in the SW as I type before racing across the country to us. It is where the boundary will stall which controls the most intensive banding and heaviest precipitation. The best guess now is along the Mason Dixon line, or northern Delaware. That gives Philly the jackpot this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mookiemike Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 May be underestimating the polar vortex this year although it's hard to believe at this point in early March. For those with the always drift north at the last minute crowd. +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Thanks Highzenberg....since I am actually at the same Latitude as NE Philly (where I grew up by the way) I expect a similar outcome as this will have a strong N to S gradient with it.....I expect a very slight or almost the same look with the 0z data and then the start of a northward trend at 6z with 12z getting back to about where it was at 12z today. Wxsim does only show an IMBY forecast but again since this will be a N/S type spread I expect similar for NE Philly where my Dad still lives. Of course I am but an amateur observer and with it come a lot of caveats!! Chesco, I always love your wxsim product updates, do they only show text stuff for your area, does it show anything for Philly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Mookie you may be right....but don't let model reading get in the way of using it as a tool...I agree if I was a model reader I would agree with you. However, I don't think the push will be quite what the model thinks....me thinks the warmth in the SE will resist a bit more at this time of the year and the front itself will not push with the strength or speed as modeled. I respectfully disagree with your suspicion that I am wishcasting (one of my favorite terms that some folks like to throw out there)....but that has never been my approach. It matters little what I personally like....the weather will do as it pleases. Should be interesting to see how this plays out and of course I may be very wrong as this is far from an exact science. I've watched as you've done better in YOBY. Don't believe in suppression? Ask Mitchell about how dense and unstoppable that dome of cold air can be. You may not believe it, but for the first time your post comes off as wishcasting. It isn't written in stone. The energy in the West is entering the four corners in the SW as I type before racing across the country to us. It is where the boundary will stall which controls the most intensive banding and heaviest precipitation. The best guess now is along the Mason Dixon line, or northern Delaware. That gives Philly the jackpot this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Mookie you may be right....but don't let model reading get in the way of using it as a tool...I agree if I was a model reader I would agree with you. However, I don't think the push will be quite what the model thinks....me thinks the warmth in the SE will resist a bit more at this time of the year and the front itself will not push with the strength or speed as modeled. I respectfully disagree with your suspicion that I am wishcasting (one of my favorite terms that some folks like to throw out there)....but that has never been my approach. It matters little what I personally like....the weather will do as it pleases. Should be interesting to see how this plays out and of course I may be very wrong as this is far from an exact science. Fwiw nws upton thinks this will move north Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Latest Wxsim with 18z data (which I really don't believe is ever to be used) has a general 5" to 6" event for NW Chesco....that said I fully expect this to trend north by tomorrow at 12z and get back to an 8" to 12" event for NW Chesco....just can't buy suppression with this one.....it will start trending north....would expect 0z to be just slightly but not importantly north of the 18z....the bigger jump begins with 6z overnight and by 12z tomorrow we will be back pretty close to the 1" qpf line being aligned along the PA turnpike. Latest Wxsim with 18z data (which I really don't believe is ever to be used) has a general 5" to 6" event for NW Chesco....that said I fully expect this to trend north by tomorrow at 12z and get back to an 8" to 12" event for NW Chesco....just can't buy suppression with this one.....it will start trending north....would expect 0z to be just slightly but not importantly north of the 18z....the bigger jump begins with 6z overnight and by 12z tomorrow we will be back pretty close to the 1" qpf line being aligned along the PA turnpike. Latest Wxsim with 18z data (which I really don't believe is ever to be used) has a general 5" to 6" event for NW Chesco....that said I fully expect this to trend north by tomorrow at 12z and get back to an 8" to 12" event for NW Chesco....just can't buy suppression with this one.....it will start trending north....would expect 0z to be just slightly but not importantly north of the 18z....the bigger jump begins with 6z overnight and by 12z tomorrow we will be back pretty close to the 1" qpf line being aligned along the PA turnpike. I'm in your camp on that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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