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2/20 - 2/21 Severe Storms Threat


Brick Tamland

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Timing doesn't look great for a lot of the area except for eastern parts of the Carolinas where instability appears to be greatest. 18z NAM has CAPE values around 1500j/kg at 15z with surface temps pushing into the 70s with plenty of moisture to work with.

 

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Local news said we would get storms between 7 and 9am. So far, we've had nothing, so it may skip mby. Radar is blocked on my work computer. :rolleyes:

 

NEVERMIND. I'm a dork. Wrong day. :nerdsmiley:  It's no wonder all of my patients have looked at me weird when I've said "Let's hurry and get you out of here before it starts storming". I need a day off. Bad.

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ww0019_radar_zps810c8203.gif

 

Since no one else has posted it, here is Tornado Watch #19:

 

TORNADO WATCH #19

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 19
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1050 PM EST THU FEB 20 2014

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTH GEORGIA
EASTERN KENTUCKY
FAR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
EASTERN TENNESSEE
FAR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA

* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM 1050 PM
UNTIL 500 AM EST.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
JACKSON KENTUCKY TO 35 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF ROME GEORGIA. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 14...WW 15...WW 16...WW
17
...WW 18...

DISCUSSION...SFC AND VWP DATA SUGGEST THAT COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH DEEPENING MID-MS VLY SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE STEADILY ESE ACROSS
THE TN VLY OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD SERVE TO KEEP EXISTING PRE-FRONTAL
SQLN ACTIVE AS ASSOCIATED LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE FORCES PARCELS THROUGH
ELEVATED CAP AND NOCTURNAL CIN LAYER. GIVEN STRENGTH OF WIND
FIELD...AND SOME INCREASE IN WINDS EXPECTED WITH THE APPROACH OF
SECONDARY UPR IMPULSE NOW OVER THE WRN OZARKS...SETUP MAY SUPPORT
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF EMBEDDED LEWPS/BOWS WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK
FOR DMGG WIND AND POSSIBLY SHORT-LIVED BUT FAST-MOVING TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24050.
 

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