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HoarfrostHubb

Feb 19 Minor Event. Obs Banter. Models.

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I'm a bit surprised BOX went 2-4" for ORH northward...they are citing big omega in the snow growth region which def could help with latent cooling...but still, that's a pretty ballsy forecast, We'll see if it works out. I'd probably go a sloppy inch or maybe two for Wawa and up through AFN or something.

 

The onset def does look to be snow or IP/snow mix as there's some good wetbulb potential initially in the mid-levels and BL. But the question is whether that lasts more than an hour or so.

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I doubt snow..but could foresee a nice ice event

 

Well not accumulating..but like one of those deals where parachutes may fire down..just kind of has that look. I think temps will warm steadily.

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CAD locations (heh-hmmmm...Chris?) could benefit

 

 

CAD only really matters for ice vs rain...it won't have much affect on whether there is snow vs rain....but any latitude will help.

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With such steep lapse rate..wouldn't be surprised at some thunder tonight along with graupel

you know everytime I hear about the possibility of thunder snow I get excited, but it never happens. It's been years since I've heard it in any storm.

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you know everytime I hear about the possibility of thunder snow I get excited, but it never happens. It's been years since I've heard it in any storm.

 

It's pretty rare, and usually not widespread. We are pretty good at forecasting conditions will be favorable for it, but it's much harder to predict where it will occur. Similar to warm season convection.

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you know everytime I hear about the possibility of thunder snow I get excited, but it never happens. It's been years since I've heard it in any storm.

i know me too, im still waiting for my tssn plus plus in a wild swfe or coastal, i havent experienced true tssn plus plus since feb 01 storm in bristol ct

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With the rain friday night, might not be a great wknd for riding.

I was actually thinking the opposite. The snow we have here has been pretty dry, a little moisture may help it pack into a nice base.

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I'm a bit surprised BOX went 2-4" for ORH northward...they are citing big omega in the snow growth region which def could help with latent cooling...but still, that's a pretty ballsy forecast, We'll see if it works out. I'd probably go a sloppy inch or maybe two for Wawa and up through AFN or something.

The onset def does look to be snow or IP/snow mix as there's some good wetbulb potential initially in the mid-levels and BL. But the question is whether that lasts more than an hour or so.

BOX gives me around an inch,but I'm totally not seeing how the ML's support that,at least on the NAM/GFS. Does any other model show it being colder? I never get below 0 at 850 today.

Sent from my VS980 4G using Tapatalk

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CAD only really matters for ice vs rain...it won't have much affect on whether there is snow vs rain....but any latitude will help.

 

Yeah I'm counting more on CAD for thurs/fri here to avoid any meaningful torching.  I think it snows here today, maybe 1".

 

BOX maps didn't work out so well here yesterday so we'll see.  lol

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we need a fresh new coating. The old snow is getting dirty. 

Looks awful...

 

Actually, last night, on the way back from the mountain, I was noticing on my side streets a lot of sand had been mixed up in the snowbanks. Hubbardston likes to use a lot of sand...

 

Otherwise a beautiful scene out there

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With the rain friday night, might not be a great wknd for riding.

 

There won't be much rain, Would take an awful lot to effect this snow pack, I am riding Sat/Sun

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I was actually thinking the opposite. The snow we have here has been pretty dry, a little moisture may help it pack into a nice base.

 

Yeah, We could use some moisture in the snow, The folks that are grooming tell me that after the 1st few sleds hit the trails after they have been groomed they go to hell because the snow won't hold in place

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