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Feb 15 clipper/redeveloper


ORH_wxman

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The only slight differences I see are more with the s/w in NY state. You guys are obsessed with the SE crap when it's almost noise. It's more nowcast time.

 

I edited...i'm not speaking in anyones back yard.  I felt all along the GFS was throwing precip away from the band too much because of potential feedback.  I also said a bunch of times typically it adjusts that out AFTER convection has fired IE this run.  That's what we just saw.

Epic band...and much less west of it.  It is finally on board with the heavily banded guidance.

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The H7 back bent warm front is pretty darn similar from 06z. This storm is a beast with dynamics..models will wobble all over the place.

 

The H7 back bent warm front is pretty darn similar from 06z. This storm is a beast with dynamics..models will wobble all over the place.

I think this is absolutely enthralling....the whole idea of not knowing, with such high-stake implications.

 

Unless the gradient sets up se of western Wilmington.

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I edited...i'm not speaking in anyones back yard.  I felt all along the GFS was throwing precip away from the band too much because of potential feedback.  I also said a bunch of times typically it adjusts that out AFTER convection has fired IE this run.  That's what we just saw.

Epic band...and much less west of it.  It is finally on board with the heavily banded guidance.

 

I don't disagree...but the wording makes it sound a lot more ominous than the 15 miles or so.

 

I guess I'm just cautious when making those claims before seeing all the items at play. QPF can nudge east but when all other features are similar..it's not always true. In this case, H7 was maybe 15 miles east or so. I know it's a high stakes forecast..but I don't know if I would change things given this beast. Speaking as a forecaster.

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Its not obsessing

I hear this all he time when a threat is imminent , anything non pro (more snow) is given negative connotation

20 mile moves make a big diff w this. And outside of banding , precip maybe anemic

I dont see the problem At all

Plenty of positives with this system.

IIRC the Feb 13 Blizzard was a disappointment because the stall east wasn't as long as modeled.

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Its not obsessing

I hear this all he time when a threat is imminent , anything non pro (more snow) is given negative connotation

20 mile moves make a big diff w this. And outside of banding , precip maybe anemic

I dont see the problem At all

Had it been 15mi NW, no one would have complained about the NW jog.

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I would look at it as more that 20-30 miles means so much that it puts pressure on people forecasting...not necessarily something where we have no clue..if you understand what I mean.  The east tick was definitely on my mind since yesterday..but if the GFS is right...it's still an awesome period for ern areas I think..esp near BOS.

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I think BOS folks and anyone south of BOS have no real reason to worry...its those of us folk west of BOS that will sweat a 15 mile shift.

 

 

The difficult part about the shifts though is determining whether they are real or not. Model noise is difficult to decipher on those small scales..in aidditon to something complex on the mesoscale level like a cluster of deep convection near HSE.

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I think BOS folks and anyone south of BOS have no real reason to worry...its those of us folk west of BOS that will sweat a 15 mile shift.

 

 

The difficult part about the shifts though is determining whether they are real or not. Model noise is difficult to decipher on those small scales..in aidditon to something complex on the mesoscale level like a cluster of deep convection near HSE.

 

I'd agree but Boston still may be right on the fence and it could wiggle either way.  The GFS is less impressive across the board

 

Had it been 15mi NW, no one would have complained about the NW jog.

 

Exactly.  It's only obsessing when it's in the wrong direction (for some) 

 

I don't disagree...but the wording makes it sound a lot more ominous than the 15 miles or so.

 

I guess I'm just cautious when making those claims before seeing all the items at play. QPF can nudge east but when all other features are similar..it's not always true. In this case, H7 was maybe 15 miles east or so. I know it's a high stakes forecast..but I don't know if I would change things given this beast. Speaking as a forecaster.

 

I'm pretty confident the NAM and RGEM will be more right and the GFS is still playing catchup.  if I'm wrong I'm wrong but like I said last night stake in the ground time.  I think the heaviest is confined further east somewhere around Rte 24/95 and points east/NE/SW with the pivot maybe being around Taunton.  NW of the heaviest banding I think there will be a lot of subsidence.

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