dryslot Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Hopefully this ticks a little more west so we can sneak out 3-6". Not sure it will come around enough for more. Hoping Tuesday can do the same. Tuesday more of a northern stream clipper, The flow is flatter so its further north and looks to slide out underneath us ENE, We should see Lt-Mod snows from that one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 30 mile tick west on the NAM and its a massive blizzard for ALL of RI and Eastern MASS. Quick hitter but epic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 The GFS has locked in the placement of the surface low at 0z Sunday for three straight runs now. Euro and latest NAM are in virtual agreement with it further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 If the GFS falters @ 12z and EURO holds pat SE, then It's time to start banging the SE drum hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 historically it seems these modeled E MA type deals never seem to work out and you end up with fringe effects...will wait and see of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 historically it seems these modeled E MA type deals never seem to work out and you end up with fringe effects...will wait and see of course. This is true; typically there's an "outside looking in" situation when the radar has a gorgeous CCB setting up S-N oriented just offshore. Cape looks to do well, but I certainly would love if the trend continued just a bit more W/NW to get into a spot where the gradient wouldn't be so scary for something vs. almost nothing. This one looks fun to be under! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 The tolerance of these topics going slightly hyperbolic is directly related to the areas that may be impacted. Right now the majority of models show the greatest impact is in eastern and SE areas. It's interesting how strict things become when the population centers aren't under the bullseye. This is a crushing blow to the Cape on many 0z and 12z models and in parts of eastern areas. Yea lets tone it down it may not effect anyone outside of SE Mass. Verbatim on the NAM, its a blizzard for the Cape and close to being one for the rest of ENE with a slight to modest shift west. Not hyperbole, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 This is true; typically there's an "outside looking in" situation when the radar has a gorgeous CCB setting up S-N oriented just offshore. Cape looks to do well, but I certainly would love if the trend continued just a bit more W/NW to get into a spot where the gradient wouldn't be so scary for something vs. almost nothing. This one looks fun to be under! General rule of thumb is that if ORH doesn't get whacked, then we won't. Very climatologically unfavored....Dec 1981, but they are rare......ususally just the cape, or the whole deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14, 2014 Author Share Posted February 14, 2014 Guys keep the thread on topic about the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Guys keep the thread on topic about the storm. FYI Just made a banter thread since it seems a banter and discussion thread per storm is the new norm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 So quickly reading thru the nonsense looks like at 3-6 interior Tomorriw with possibly more with one west shift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14, 2014 Author Share Posted February 14, 2014 FYI Just made a banter thread since it seems a banter and discussion thread per storm is the new norm Good idea...we can keep the emotional diatribes and musings to that thread. We will stick to this thread being a place where people can come to read analyitcal posts on the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 lol, I did not know you could place your order, You have not missed very many this yearthank you as they are 100 to 200 pct of climo in some cases without yesterday lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Rgem nuke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Rgem nuke. An encouraging sign heading into the midday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 First off the rgem looks great. 2 for 2...great hit for the cape and se/e areas. Parts of the cape are over 15mm. My point was the tolerance for exaggerative and hyperbolic posts relates directly to who is in the jackpot. Really the only one that's honest about that is Ray. Now back to our regular programming while we wait for the gfs to unleash a fury upon us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 First off the rgem looks great. 2 for 2...great hit for the cape and se/e areas. Parts of the cape are over 15mm. My point was the tolerance for exaggerative and hyperbolic posts relates directly to who is in the jackpot. Really the only one that's honest about that is Ray. Now back to our regular programming while we wait for the gfs to unleash a fury upon us. I find this run of the GFS kind of critical. If it continues to show a much bigger hit, that'll be four runs in a row showing the storm with a greater impact while other guidance has crept in its direction (though not as robust in impact). If it eases off a bit, the overall guidance envelope narrows and it would appear our endgame is probably something in the NAM/EURO area with a nice Cape hit, a sharp E-W gradient and minimal impacts west of 495-ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I thought the RGEM wasn't that great aside from the canal, but it's real close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I find this run of the GFS kind of critical. If it continues to show a much bigger hit, that'll be four runs in a row showing the storm with a greater impact while other guidance has crept in its direction (though not as robust in impact). If it eases off a bit, the overall guidance envelope narrows and it would appear our endgame is probably something in the NAM/EURO area with a nice Cape hit, a sharp E-W gradient and minimal impacts west of 495-ish. If the gfs is over amped and on it's own it's tossed. Too many times in borderline situations it's been overdone. Consensus is setting up pretty well if you consider the 0z euro, 12z rgem and nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 is that current BOX map updated ..Are all those totals for snowfall tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 is that current BOX map updated ..Are all those totals for snowfall tomorrow? That map is for tomorrow. Looks spot on currently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 This is true; typically there's an "outside looking in" situation when the radar has a gorgeous CCB setting up S-N oriented just offshore. Cape looks to do well, but I certainly would love if the trend continued just a bit more W/NW to get into a spot where the gradient wouldn't be so scary for something vs. almost nothing. This one looks fun to be under! Shape of the coastline FTL. We're in a similar situation up here, where north of PWM should do well, but south naso much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 is that current BOX map updated ..Are all those totals for snowfall tomorrow? Yes. You seem to encounter this question often. Note the timestamp posted each time snowfall forecasts are posted: Graphic last modified: Friday, 14th February, 2014 @ 4:29AM It appears below the map, and the map itself has text at the bottom indicating the time frame of the forecast (in this case, ending 1PM Sunday), and the associated Winter Weather Message link at the top tells you what event the product is associated with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 RGEM nukes the low late and has a slight hook back NW over DE Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 That map is for tomorrow. Looks spot on currently Why do they have 1-2 in the low spots and 2-4 in the high spots over CT and Central Mass? It's not an elevation deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaf Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Isn't 15 mm a little more than 0.5"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Why do they have 1-2 in the low spots and 2-4 in the high spots over CT and Central Mass? It's not an elevation deal Because we're talking the difference between 1.9" and 2.1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterLand Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Isn't 15 mm a little more than 0.5"? Correct, 1" = 25.4 mm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 RGEM nukes the low late and has a slight hook back NW over DE Maine They all have it at different points. It's a bowling ball curling up the front of a negatively curling wave. It will rotate north on the curl but how much? Gfs looks reasonable through 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Isn't 15 mm a little more than 0.5"? Black and white maps. It has more i added the minimum threshold for each 12 hour period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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