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February 14-15 Event Obs


Kmlwx

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h5 on the GFS looks good as other have commented and it closes off quick at h85 near ORF.  If that holds then I would expect to see a response at the surface.  Wouldn't be surprised to see some advisory level snows with that somewhere in VA/MD, assuming temps do not interfere with things.  NAM MOS has held the high tomorrow in the mid 30s at Dulles last two runs, while the GFS has gradually trended downward to 33 now at 18z.  Obviously the GFS probably has the best shot in general at being correct with fresh snowpack, prob 33-35 ends up being reality IMO.

FWIW, IAD plumes have slowly trended up as well in support, with most members showing some accumulation now on the 15z runs.

post-2030-0-43895200-1392333127_thumb.gi

 

 

The atmosphere is generally forced from the top down. not the other way around.  Look there for clues/trends as to what the model may be trying to do at the surface in future runs.

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If the nam has a good run in an hour then I'm all in. I'm not betting against the nam anymore until it blows it. Probably tomorrow night.

That's what I'm hoping for....I mean, you would think the NAM would have looked like the GFS and vice versa.....the H5 map on the GFS is what got me going.   If we get somthing like that, I'd think the precip would be better.  Wes?

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21z SREF MSLP depiction is intriguing... seems some members are closer to the coast hrs 42-51 than where the mean is depicting it (you can tell by the darker blue and orange colors)  interesting... 

the heavy stuff goes around DCA/BWI  lol

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fsref%2F21%2Fsref_namer_054_precip_p24.gif&model=sref&area=namer&storm=&cycle=21&param=precip_p24&fhr=054&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

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I'm not so sure that's what we want too much

like I mentioned, GFS and SREF go under and wide right of us

 

NOTE: I only have out to 15 hrs so I don;t know how far south, just sayin' some models don't end up well for us with that scenario

Yeah, you might wanna wait before we say its bad or good.  I'm not sure yet and I'm out to 24.  Looks decent to me, not sure why diggy would be bad in any circumstance

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