CT Rain Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Hey guys - let's start our discussion here for the evening and overnight computer models. We have a storm banter thread so this thread is for actual discussion with met details. Try to keep questions, complaining, and other stuff in the storm banter thread. We're going to be really strict about deleting posts here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 So I'm thinking form rpm drove Harv's forecast. Gotta get on his twitter feed. But to me the cold antecedent seems ok and the marine taint is mitigated by the cold ocean. But the again, if mid levels torch it can easily go well above freezing I the bl. Talking for eastern mass inside 128. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 13, 2014 Author Share Posted February 13, 2014 So I'm thinking form rpm drove Harv's forecast. Gotta get on his twitter feed. But to me the cold antecedent seems ok and the marine taint is mitigated by the cold ocean. But the again, if mid levels torch it can easily go well above freezing I the bl. Talking for eastern mass inside 128. It's a really tough forecast - I don't envy him. This thing is going to be a real pain to figure out. The new RPM is wild. Huge front end thump and then a big backside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 It's a really tough forecast - I don't envy him. This thing is going to be a real pain to figure out. The new RPM is wild. Huge front end thump and then a big backside. deets? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 13, 2014 Author Share Posted February 13, 2014 deets? Heavy thump, heavy dry slot, heavy second thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Heavy thump, heavy dry slot, heavy second thump. CCB in CT/MA instead of ALB area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 13, 2014 Author Share Posted February 13, 2014 CCB in CT/MA instead of ALB area? Looks like CT/W Mass/VT and back through ALB as well. That said... it is the RPM. Just about as reliable as the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 So I'm thinking form rpm drove Harv's forecast. Gotta get on his twitter feed. But to me the cold antecedent seems ok and the marine taint is mitigated by the cold ocean. But the again, if mid levels torch it can easily go well above freezing I the bl. Talking for eastern mass inside 128. It's got rain to ORH...that's just totally wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 13, 2014 Author Share Posted February 13, 2014 It's got rain to ORH...that's just totally wrong. lol yeah... but who knows it could be right for immediate coast? I dunno. It's a weird run with the have a lots and the have nots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Heavy thump, heavy dry slot, heavy second thump.sounds perfect, I was trying to remember if there ever was a day where the south got dumped on, a LP went south of SNE and Boston rained for the majority. I know it's happened with cutters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 What the moisture content looking like? Is this the type of potentaily wet snow that when combined with high wind gusts can damage tree's/powerlines? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 So I'm thinking form rpm drove Harv's forecast. Gotta get on his twitter feed. But to me the cold antecedent seems ok and the marine taint is mitigated by the cold ocean. But the again, if mid levels torch it can easily go well above freezing I the bl. Talking for eastern mass inside 128. i was wondering about this, the animated model he showed indicated mixing was going to rocket north all the way up to almost central NH...hypothetically, in order for the warm air to flood in like that, wouldn't the storm track have to be west of the CC Canal? is that possibility still on the table? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 FYI NWS Boston @NWSBoston 42s Anomalous storm system, we have increased the winds & expanded the areal coverage of the wind advisory. pic.twitter.com/3N9MEqgFSY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 the trowal looks really interesting. models can fail with those Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 lol yeah... but who knows it could be right for immediate coast? I dunno. It's a weird run with the have a lots and the have nots. Yeah the immediate coast is different and I'm lost. Part of me wants to go colder like 32 when it is snowing..or at least have temps not get much above the low 30s before it snows, but models want like 34-35. However it warms quick at 950 so it gets more difficult to wash out the marine layer. You could argue if that layer is too warm...and it probably is at the beginning, but we are at the mercy of the front end. If that somehow peels NE and doesn't hit hard...then it's 1-3". I mean NE winds are golden 98/100 times this time of year. Also, as it starts snowing..it's plenty cold at 850mb. -4C or colder is just fine on a NE wind. So it's a mind blower. I think NE MA seems good for a soild 6-10". If there were a range of higher confidence..it's that. We'll see what 00z does and adjust. I'm not sure of I can stay up...I'm beat from the last few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I guess it just bothers me how warm models are, that's all. Not like 0.5-1.0F means 3" or 8"...nah..nothing like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I guess it just bothers me how warm models are, that's all. Not like 0.5-1.0F means 3" or 8"...nah..nothing like that. lol, you're dealing with the same tight rope as we will be out west here, but our problem will be is it 0.25" QPF or is it 1", 3-4" or 10-14"? Not like it really matters in terms of impact, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 18z BTV WRF was way east with the CCB... putting it over CT/ORH/SNH/ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 13, 2014 Author Share Posted February 13, 2014 Yeah the immediate coast is different and I'm lost. Part of me wants to go colder like 32 when it is snowing..or at least have temps not get much above the low 30s before it snows, but models want like 34-35. However it warms quick at 950 so it gets more difficult to wash out the marine layer. You could argue if that layer is too warm...and it probably is at the beginning, but we are at the mercy of the front end. If that somehow peels NE and doesn't hit hard...then it's 1-3". I mean NE winds are golden 98/100 times this time of year. Also, as it starts snowing..it's plenty cold at 850mb. -4C or colder is just fine on a NE wind. So it's a mind blower. I think NE MA seems good for a soild 6-10". If there were a range of higher confidence..it's that. We'll see what 00z does and adjust. I'm not sure of I can stay up...I'm beat from the last few days. It's a really bizarre storm. Like I was telling you and Phil yesterday there are some things that look amazing about this system and other things that look awful. I don't really have a sense for how this plays out. In some respects I could see convection to the south doing some funky things with the warm conveyorbelt and moisture transport and the broad mid level lows pushing the best forcing by night well northwest. Could also see some really sneaky warmth playing havoc with ptype pretty far inland even though it's modeled right now as close to an isothermal snow bomb. On the other hand, there's the potential for a really monster qpf bomb at the onset if the the initial thump plays out as some of the mesoscale models have indicated. Likewise, the GFS/GGEM and the mesoscale models have been insistent on the TROWAL/comma head. It's very bizarre and many times doesn't work out as progged but if it does... wow that's a flash freeze and a blue bomb right before Friday commute. Weird storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I guess it just bothers me how warm models are, that's all. Not like 0.5-1.0F means 3" or 8"...nah..nothing like that. Aside of the Euro which is pretty cold. I guess we'll see this run Scott. We're kind of out of time. I think there's a danger of this warming very quickly back to I95 and beyond if the "overall" theme carried by some models is right. But that theme shifted again at 18z and if that continued or held at 0z it's a whole different ball game. Imagine another 30-40 mile shift in stage one and a similar shift in stage 2 and this is a dramatically different storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIcoastalWX Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 26.6/19 - Overcast SE wind - 5 to 10 mph Nothing scientific to back this up… but I've lived along the immediate coast long enough to know the signs… I believe the coastal front is setting up to the northwest of me… reason being… winds are SE… lower clouds are quickly coming up from the S and SE and temps and dew points are steadily on the rise. Edit… 26.8/19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I'm feeling much better back this way in terms of the warmer air holding off...at least long enough to where the majority of the precipitation will fall as snow. Since the snow will be rather wet though we do have to watch for icing as freezing rain is a possibility...while this shouldn't be anything too serious, the potential certainly exists for perhaps a few tenths of an inch of glazing and when you put that ontop of wet snow (along with strong wind gusts) power issues may be somewhat of a concern tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastBayWx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 26.6/19 - Overcast SE wind - 5 to 10 mph Nothing scientific to back this up… but I've lived along the immediate coast long enough to know the signs… I believe the coastal front is setting up to the northwest of me… reason being… winds are SE… lower clouds are quickly coming up from the S and SE and temps and dew points are steadily on the rise. Edit… 26.8/19 19F here with light southerly flow. Never bodes well, even in the heart of winter with the coldest SSTs of the year. Coastal front is going in deep this time around. Only hope with this system for us is a Dec 9 2005 finish but even that was lackluster this far south, although Providence got into the action. Two part systems with a dry slot in between is nearly always a failure here on the coast. The backside never materializes this far SW of the departing low and the CCB likes to decay quickly as it pushes East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I know it's early but: BLOCK ISLAND CLOUDY 27 16 63 SE8 BOSTON MOCLDY 22 12 65 SE8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Right those winds will warm us up, but they will go NE at all spots. Question is when in reference to the snow starting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Right those winds will warm us up, but they will go NE at all spots. Question is when in reference to the snow starting. BOS has been SE all day ...since noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Srefs like the front ender in spades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Srefs like the front ender in spades. S. E. Radar is impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 BOS has been SE all day ...since noon. Yeah nothing like a 22F seabreeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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