DixieBlizzard Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Robert is honking: For Alabama, northern Georgia, southern and eastern TN, and western Carolinas tonight....this upper low means business. It is producing extreme snowfall rates right now as it slowly crawls through Birmingham. This will slowly pivot northeast slowly overnight and into the western Carolinas, turning the sleet back over to heavy snow in it's wake. Cities to be affected will be Chattanooga, Rome, Atlanta, Athens, Asheville, Greenville-Spartanburg, Charlotte, and Hickory by morning. The core of the spinning upper low will produce extreme snowfall rates and some convective snow is possible at some point on it's trek. Credit: Stormlover on TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Alchemist Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Actually looks to setup between the foothills and just east of CLT. Doesn't look as robust as the GFS did but it should do something. Does the energy that forms the deformation band come from the wrap around circulation, or just the west side of the trough? If it forms close enough to the escarpment would it intensify due to east west upslope? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I'm really angry with it. It's crushing alright. Crushing my weenie dreams. This is a cutthroat game we play... Hopefully we can get the band to give love to all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Robert seems like a good met, but I'm not sure I buy the ULL slamming Rome/Chat and ATL/AHN... I know someone asked for my opinion about the area near Birmingham. Whereas I think ATL will get some snow soon from the upper low, it looks to me like it would come from what's below that incredibly intense area near Birmingham because I think that real heavy area will pass to the north. Even so, let's hope that the area below it will be interesting for ATL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CherokeeGA Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Robert seems like a good met, but I'm not sure I buy the ULL slamming Rome/Chat and ATL/AHN... I don't buy that either. NGa forecasts kind of busted and the mets would love to wish some more snow in here tonight. And convective... well yes it's already done that so it's not a hard call if you are paying attention to all the postings people are making here and elsewhere. It will go northeast of ATL and.. Athens? really? is this thing suddenly going due east? Rome/Chat might get lucky. hrrr doesn't show it throwing very much precip out there once it crosses the state line tho, until it gets up into sc/nc and is being properly fed again. I would love to be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The Euro and RGEM have strong deformation bands, too. I think that it's going to happen. That ought to be interesting. was just looking at euro maps JB posted for tomorrow, he said heavy snow western NC thru hour 36 Def. band.that was for 12z but euro has it over a large area including you and me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Not saying it will or want. Just putting it in the thread. Brad Panovich @wxbrad 1h HRRR model over the next 15 hours http://twitpic.com/dvbsba #wncwx #cltwx #ncwx #scwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I know most folks on here probably hate TWC, but they showed a nice band developing here in the mid Carolinas around 9 or 10 AM tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I'm really angry with it. It's crushing alright. Crushing my weenie dreams. Have you seen the latest HRRR? Let's hug that and call it a day. Sick deformation band at the end of the run...... Looks primed to slam everyone from CLT to HKY and eastwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGator Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I know someone asked for my opinion about the area near Birmingham. Whereas I think ATL will get some snow soon from the upper low, it looks to me like it would come from what's below that incredibly intense area near Birmingham because I think that real heavy area will pass to the north. Even so, let's hope that the area below it will be interesting for ATL. Thanks, I was wondering about that. And whether or not Robert is right about this ULL getting to so many locations, at least he's revived some weenie snow dreams, at least for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 No I think that would be the storm total since onset Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I know someone asked for my opinion about the area near Birmingham. Whereas I think ATL will get some snow soon from the upper low, it looks to me like it would come from what's below that incredibly intense area near Birmingham because I think that real heavy area will pass to the north. Even so, let's hope that the area below it will be interesting for ATL. Just admit it. We got screwed in Atlanta this storm. Almost no snow when models were showing at least a few inches. It's depressing. None of the models got it right. We didn't get nearly our predicted QPF either. I don't consider this storm historic at all for the Atlanta area. In fact, it was a bust. Won't be a storm I look back on and be excited about if it comes up as an analog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Have you seen the latest HRRR? Let's hug that and call it a day. Sick deformation band at the end of the run...... Looks primed to slam everyone from CLT to HKY and eastwards. That looks kinda like what JB showed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGator Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Just admit it. We got screwed in Atlanta this storm. Almost no snow when models were showing at least a few inches. It's depressing. None of the models got it right. We didn't get nearly our predicted QPF either. I don't consider this storm historic at all for the Atlanta area. In fact, it was a bust. Won't be a storm I look back on and be excited about if it comes up as an analog. Not sure about the QPF part. The way the sleet was coming down at my house today at times, had it been snow it would have piled up quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Just admit it. We got screwed in Atlanta this storm. Almost no snow when models were showing at least a few inches. It's depressing. None of the models got it right. We didn't get nearly our predicted QPF either. I don't consider this storm historic at all for the Atlanta area. In fact, it was a bust. Won't be a storm I look back on and be excited about if it comes up as an analog. Dude try being in the bullseye of 10-15"+ and only getting 2". The only saving grace for Oconee and Pickens counties would be for the ULL to sit on us in the morning for a couple hours! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Not sure about the QPF part. The way the sleet was coming down at my house today at times, had it been snow it would have piled up quickly. That's the problem. It wasn't snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 If u are NW of the ULL you have a chance to get some rates that will be insane. Those of closet to the mountains in the foothills region will get extra enhancement because the extra lift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Just admit it. We got screwed in Atlanta this storm. Almost no snow when models were showing at least a few inches. It's depressing. None of the models got it right. We didn't get nearly our predicted QPF either. I don't consider this storm historic at all for the Atlanta area. In fact, it was a bust. Won't be a storm I look back on and be excited about if it comes up as an analog. Sorry but after the last two winters, this one was at least interesting and produced in the region. No, the 850mb temps robbed us of a historic snowfall but it is what it is. This winter has been awesome compared to the last two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raysum Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Go to Wxsouth on Facebook to get the whole article https://www.facebook.com/WxSouth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Have you seen the latest HRRR? Let's hug that and call it a day. Sick deformation band at the end of the run...... Looks primed to slam everyone from CLT to HKY and eastwards. I'll gladly take it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
10below Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Go to Wxsouth on Facebook to get the whole article https://www.facebook.com/WxSouth BEAUTIFUL!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Fwiw Its sleeting like a b here with no ice in sight. NM thats OT. But anyway expect a slight east jog in those forecasted amounts whatever you may have been projected to receive. The Primary LP is forming off the GA coastline south of SAV. With a 1006mb lp off the coast same as the GOM. But it is taking a further east track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 It would be amazing to see the Euro miss the SLP track by 150 miles a day and a half in advance. That's pretty sad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I about had a heart attack when I looked at the 10hr and 12hr 850 map for the nam we are still getting blasted even tomorrow morning. We are easily over a foot here at my house in a Roanoke. Sick rates right now. Edit: Ehh got a little trigger happy 10" but pouring the snow right now give me like an hour and a half and I will hold true to my statement that ull means business later on tonight/tomorrow morning it will cover a lot of real estate as well looks fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I don't think it will miss by that much. May be off by 50 or so though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 "A large band of heavy snow continues over the North Carolina Mountains. Notice that the snow continues back into northeast Alabama. This is the "upper low" which may spread heavy snow across parts of the area later tonight and tomorrow morning. In the red is an area of mainly heavy sleet and some freezing rain. The yellow dashes toward the bottom are lighting. The sleet will continue in this area for several more hours. And as that upper low approaches, it may change back to heavy snow, including possible thundersnow." GSP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I know someone asked for my opinion about the area near Birmingham. Whereas I think ATL will get some snow soon from the upper low, it looks to me like it would come from what's below that incredibly intense area near Birmingham because I think that real heavy area will pass to the north. Even so, let's hope that the area below it will be interesting for ATL. Even though I would love to see Robert's graphic come to fruition, the radar doesn't lie, and looking at it right now shows an absolutely massive hole that encompasses most of the northern half of Georgia. If that upper low does produce anything in that swath that he outlined, it better start some rapid development or else this storm is outta here with little more than passing snow showers. I'm interested in the qpf totals for this storm for us Georgia folks....it didn't seem like it produced nearly the amount of precipitation that was forecast but we'll see. I keep looking for redevelopment associated with the low but just don't see anything right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 "A large band of heavy snow continues over the North Carolina Mountains. Notice that the snow continues back into northeast Alabama. This is the "upper low" which may spread heavy snow across parts of the area later tonight and tomorrow morning. In the red is an area of mainly heavy sleet and some freezing rain. The yellow dashes toward the bottom are lighting. The sleet will continue in this area for several more hours. And as that upper low approaches, it may change back to heavy snow, including possible thundersnow." GSP That lady's and gentlemen, is why climo wins out 99% of the time. every major HECS storm i've seen in hickory, it sleets for 6 hours in the middle of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JQPublic Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I understand they received 3-6"/hr rates in Birmingham, but how much did they actually get in that ULL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 That lady's and gentlemen, is why climo wins out 99% of the time. every major HECS storm i've seen in hickory, it sleets for 6 hours in the middle of it. I have a feeling hky avl and areas of the foothills and mountains are gonna get hammered by ULL snow in the early morning hours. It's closed off over Alabama. Gonna be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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