WintersGrasp Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Im far from a debbie downer but the reality is dual pol does not lie. Its movin north. Yeah....middle ground I guess is best....I dot consider myself a Debbie downer lol but the reality is that the changeover line truly is moving north fairly quickly now, and as I said, the snow should last another 3 hours most in the city and nearby areas. During that time is the true dumping....and right now I'm loving it. No, we will not get only 5 inches....but I do indeed doubt 12" ....thinking more like 8-9" for most areas. Snowing about 3" per hour right now here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Go against the Euro, yeah that's wise particularly when the short term models agree with it. It has 15+ NYC west all as snow. Maybe you are talking about Long Island or central to southern Jersey but that is not everyone here. Well PB I take you pretty seriously, but if the entire event is supposed to do 6-12 for the city and immediate environs, then we would have to be looking at huge amts if the back end snows come to fruition. I don't see anyone in the media saying that except for the northwest areas. Are they all just out to lunch? Who cares what these news people say. Going against the Euro in this setup is idiocy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Yep it's moved north....but it was modeled anyway...we should still be snow for 3 hours, and in that time is when all the fun happens 2-3" per hour. It'll easily drop 8-10", my only doubts were if we'd hit a foot in the area before a changeover....to make it clear for some. This is definitely a thump snow, and to me it's much more enjoyable than 15 hours of light snow. It's just pouring the white stuff right now Yea I think once it get 1-2 miles from bk it will hit a wall for a few hours with the NE wind and colder SSTs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poleshiftnow Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Going on 8" Manville NJ and still getting crushed wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Im far from a debbie downer but the reality is dual pol does not lie. Its movin north. Changeover was supposed to be around 10 am, so its earlier even. This is why I don't get those calling for 12 on the front end. Looks more like 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Well PB I take you pretty seriously, but if the entire event is supposed to do 6-12 for the city and immediate environs, then we would have to be looking at huge amts if the back end snows come to fruition. I don't see anyone in the media saying that except for the northwest areas. Are they all just out to lunch? The media has been playing catchup with this storm for a long time now. The 6-12" idea (I like more like 6-10) is just for the front end across NYC and environs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 So where is the mix line exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 You don't need a model right now!!! Lol ... Look at radar, temps and wind direction... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJWeather201 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Well PB I take you pretty seriously, but if the entire event is supposed to do 6-12 for the city and immediate environs, then we would have to be looking at huge amts if the back end snows come to fruition. I don't see anyone in the media saying that except for the northwest areas. Are they all just out to lunch? Your mistake is underlined and bolded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Well PB I take you pretty seriously, but if the entire event is supposed to do 6-12 for the city and immediate environs, then we would have to be looking at huge amts if the back end snows come to fruition. I don't see anyone in the media saying that except for the northwest areas. Are they all just out to lunch? Brooklyn just measured very close to 6 . Temps down to 29 rates of 2 inches per hour for the next 2 hours , the the RS line is the wildcard . Does it bust thru at 10 or 11 . 45 DBZ still training from my SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveTinNY Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10202393134503314&l=0b5d439fef Spring Valley, NY the heavier stuff is moving in now out of the city area. Ruler on top of the old snow. About three inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 998mb off Delmarva Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Go against the Euro, yeah that's wise particularly when the short term models agree with it. It has 15+ NYC west all as snow. Maybe you are talking about Long Island or central to southern Jersey but that is not everyone here. You're in a different zone. And the area is big. I'm across from NYC..Staten Island; that's still fairly far south of upper Manhattan and Bergen Co. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Jeez, Dual-pol showing the changeover maybe 20 miles away from me now. If that flies through here there will be a good amount of rain/sleet before the dryslot, much warmer than models even last night thought. The final ingredient down here is always climatology in razor sharp situations like this IMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Where's the link for the rain/snow line? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Colts Neck Still heavy snow - so RS line S of there . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Puff I'm just down the road from you in Rahway NJ and we already have 5" on the ground and not expecting us to change til around 11 or noon as we hang on to the mid levels longer than the city or long island. Ten to 12 is def a possibility Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Heavy snow in Astoria right now. Big fat flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 817 AM EST THU FEB 13 2014 CTZ005-008>012-NJZ004-006-103>108-NYZ069>075-078>081-176>179-131445- BRONX-EASTERN BERGEN-EASTERN ESSEX-EASTERN PASSAIC-EASTERN UNION-HUDSON-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-NORTHEAST SUFFOLK-NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NASSAU-NORTHERN NEW LONDON-NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-NORTHWEST SUFFOLK-RICHMOND (STATEN IS.)-ROCKLAND-SOUTHEAST SUFFOLK-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHWEST SUFFOLK-WESTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION- 817 AM EST THU FEB 13 2014 ...NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT LONG ISLAND...NEW YORK CITY...AND COASTAL PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH AROUND 10 AM... AS OF 800 AM EST...A BAND OF VERY HEAVY SNOW WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR HAS OVERPSREAD THE REGION AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SIT OVER THE REGION THROUGH 10 AM. IN ADDITION...WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGH MID MORNING...RESULTING IN NEAR ZERO VISBILITY AT TIMES. TRAVEL IS NOT RECOMMENDED THROUGH MID MORNING DUE TO THE RAPIDLY DERIORATING CONDITIONS. MOTORISTS SHOULD EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION IF TRAVEL IS NECESSARY. CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADAULLY IMPROVE AT LEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND BY AROUND 10 AM. A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 For all the weenie suicides on dual pol, temp has dropped to 28.2 and winds are still from the NE, the R/S might stop just 5-10 miles off the coast until 10am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Mix line has moved through Monmouth into Middlesex and will be into NYC within an hour or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 You're in a different zone. And the area is big. I'm across from NYC..Staten Island; that's still fairly far south of upper Manhattan and Bergen Co. That's fine just be more specific that you are referencing your area and areas perhaps to your south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluebythec Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Beautiful big white flakes have changed to rain here in Manasquan- Eastern Monmouth. Wind is ripping from the north -flags are standing out straight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDemon Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Yeah, the snow has gotten progressively heavier over here. A good, heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Looks like that crazy death band over NYC is converging with the one that was south of LI. No reduction in already crazy rates here, awesome stuff! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Brooklyn just measured very close to 6 . Temps down to 29 rates of 2 inches per hour for the next 2 hours , the the RS line is the wildcard . Does it bust thru at 10 or 11 . 45 DBZ still training from my SE Thanks I appreciate your response. Whether we get to a certain amt or not to me is less a story than how evil it is outside right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Snow/sleet line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 No mix here, just very heavy snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 998mb off Delmarva Steve D saying storm is moving ENE not NNE. So storm is east of guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemost Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Heavy Snow in Morristown for the past 45 minutes now. Temperature up to 29º. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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