NortheastPAWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Let's do it folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Like really? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 DC getting 12-18" seems about right. Do you search for these snowfall maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexP Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 DT last call map is out. A bit more reasonable than his earlier map when he had York and Lancaster in the 16-20" contour. He says he is putting out another last call map tomorrow for areas further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Hugging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Hugging the boardwalks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 Hugging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Still like my first call. May shift west tomorrow for final call if trends continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Hugging. Nice. 0.5 is basically on top of UNV. Must be some really huge hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 That escalated quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Nam was better through 24 then went to crap, Man this model blows. Also the slowness of the board is pissing me off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 System is already ramping up something fierce. Nine stations in LA are reporting lightning in the raw METARS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I know we're in the midst of storm talk, but quick sidenote.. it's already 4ºF here, I bet someone around here goes under -10ºF tonight with the ideal radiational cooling scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 I hate to be the bearer of bad news but the NAM had new data...so we're not off to a good start, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I know we're in the midst of storm talk, but quick sidenote.. it's already 4ºF here, I bet someone around here goes under -10ºF tonight with the ideal radiational cooling scenario. Yeah it's cold, I was just out trying to bust up ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Nam southeast of 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Are we going to panic over the NAM again? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I know we're in the midst of storm talk, but quick sidenote.. it's already 4ºF here, I bet someone around here goes under -10ºF tonight with the ideal radiational cooling scenario. It may have gotten lost in the posts this morning, but my parents in Lebanon County hit -10° around 6AM today. I told them to expect similar conditions tomorrow morning. Hit -3° in Bellefonte this morning...currently 8°. I'm thinking around -5 to -8° by 7AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I hate to be the bearer of bad news but the NAM had new data...so we're not off to a good start, I thought the NAM had the old data and the rest of the suite ran with the new. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I hate to be the bearer of bad news but the NAM had new data...so we're not off to a good start, If by new data you mean the data from the recon flights you are incorrect. The NAM is the only model of the 0Z suite not to have it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I hate to be the bearer of bad news but the NAM had new data...so we're not off to a good start, I thought the NAM had the old data and the rest of the suite ran with the new. Yes, you are correct, Voyager. I just did some digging and found this out. Whew! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Nam had some serious convective feedback also. It tried to pop 3 or 4 lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Mets saying heavy influence from kicker in nam keeps low east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 To stop all the confusion... One sonde and a recon report has virtually no effect on the outcome. SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGENWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD0126Z WED FEB 12 2014THE 00Z NAM HAS STARTED ON-TIME WITH 14 ALASKAN...30CANADIAN...69 CONUS...1 CARIBBEAN AND 7 MEXICAN RAOB REPORTS AVBLFOR INGEST.ADDITIONALLY...ONE DROPSONDE AND ONE FLIGHT LEVEL RECON REPORTWERE RECEIVED FROM A SHORTENED WSR MISSION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.00Z NAM RAOB RECAP...91334/TKK - PURGED TEMP/RH 782-623...TOO COLD76692/HYY - 10158...FLIGHT EQUIPMENT FAILUREOREILLY/SDM/NCO/NCEP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 If by new data you mean the data from the recon flights you are incorrect. The NAM is the only model of the 0Z suite not to have it. Really? Thanks for the correction in that case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Nam southeast of 18z run. Who cares!!!!!! IT IS NOT RECOMMENDED TO PUT MUCH...IF ANY...WEIGHT ON THE NAM AFTER DAY 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Sounds like the NAM should be auto-discarded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Map of the flight path before the data stopped coming in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC929 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2014MDZ003>007-009>011-VAZ028-030-031-042-052-053-055-501-502-WVZ051>053-121030-/O.UPG.KLWX.WS.A.0004.140213T0000Z-140214T0300Z//O.NEW.KLWX.WS.W.0006.140213T0100Z-140214T0100Z/WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-FREDERICK VA-WARREN-CLARKE-LOUDOUN-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-STAFFORD-NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HAGERSTOWN...FREDERICK...WESTMINSTER...GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA...BALTIMORE...WINCHESTER...FRONT ROYAL...LEESBURG...MANASSAS...MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...WARRENTON...MARTINSBURG...CHARLES TOWN929 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2014...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM ESTTHURSDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HASISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM8 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM EST THURSDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NOLONGER IN EFFECT.* PRECIPITATION TYPE...HEAVY SNOW.* ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH UP TO 12 INCHES AT ELEVATIONSABOVE 800 FEET.* TIMING...SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH BETWEEN 8PM AND 10 PM WEDNESDAY EVENING. SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMESWEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SNOW IS EXPECTED TOTAPER OFF LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.* TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S WEDNESDAYNIGHT...SLOWLY RISING INTO THE LOWER 30S THURSDAY AFTERNOON.* WINDS...NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH WEDNESDAY EVENING...BECOMING NORTHAND INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH LATEWEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.* IMPACTS...ROADS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY. TRAVELWILL BE DANGEROUS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HEAVY WET SNOWCOULD LEAD TO SOME POWER OUTAGES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Mets saying heavy influence from kicker in nam keeps low east. it's not so much the kicker but the disaster at 500 that leaves it disorganized and east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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