user13 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The 18z models have ticked west, and warmer over the last 12 hours...Lets see if anything changes with the 0z runs As of 18z: - The NAM/4k NAM/WRF are on the colder side with mostly all snow down to the coast. - Euro/GGEM/UK have Snow to rain to Snow and seem to be in the middle of the guidance - The GFS and RGEM have a smaller thump of initial snow and then flooding the mid levels with warmth all the way into PA, but still some back end snows SREF: 8:20 NAM: 9:00 RGEM: 10:20 GFS: 10:30 UKMET: 10:40 GGEM: 11:00 GEFS (EN): 12:00 ECMWF: 12:45 ECM (EN): 3:00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 The Kicker still seems to be the wild card IMO. It has yet to come onshore as of 18z and that will ultimately determine how far west the coastal tracks. 0z should have some better data on that feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 My wrapup of the 18z suite would be broken down as follows: NAM/HIRES NAM/WRF: Hi res models that are coming into their accurate range, the NAM should have been slightly more amplified then it was IMO however not nearly to the point of being as warm as other guidance. This camp may be seeing the effects of this very dynamic system correctly, though caution is advised being that they are only now reaching their accurate range. Euro/UKIE/GGEM: This camp is amped but not running inland to the point of what we witnessed from the RGEM. They are as user said snow to rain to snow and a good amount of it at that. This camp is where im sitting ATM or even slightly SE of what they are showing based on my feelings of the interaction of the kicker. I like their handling of the players on the field and feel that the final solution will be close to this camp. GFS/RGEM: These guys are in their own camp but in their own rights, the GFS is just a jumbled mess that floods the mid levels. The GFS is below average/poor on picking up the effects of dynamic cooling like the NAM camp. The RGEM has been an extremely useful tool this winter however I would never cancel a storm based upon the RGEM at 48 hours (and an 18z run at that). This camp likely has some correcting to do and I expect both to fall in line with the 12/18z suite of the Euro/UKIE/GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Remember the 0z NAM is the only model that won't have the new data capture by recon . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Remember the 0z NAM is the only model that won't have the new data capture by recon . I almost enjoy the fact that we have one model that will not have the recon data. Almost a "control" if you will. To see the tracks of the coastal with the recon data versus the NAM without it will be very interesting going forward to determine any future trends/shifts. I feel as if the NAM is left of the cluster of guidance tonight then the tucked in/inland solutions likely hold less weight.... and vice versa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 I almost enjoy the fact that we have one model that will not have the recon data. Almost a "control" if you will. To see the tracks of the coastal with the recon data versus the NAM without it will be very interesting going forward to determine any future trends/shifts. I feel as if the NAM is left of the cluster of guidance tonight then the tucked in/inland solutions likely hold less weight.... and vice versa. Great point...I wonder if they did that on purpose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Remember the 0z NAM is the only model that won't have the new data capture by recon . Good point to bring up again as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I almost enjoy the fact that we have one model that will not have the recon data. Almost a "control" if you will. To see the tracks of the coastal with the recon data versus the NAM without it will be very interesting going forward to determine any future trends/shifts. I feel as if the NAM is left of the cluster of guidance tonight then the tucked in/inland solutions likely hold less weight.... and vice versa. tonight is make or break. I haven't given up hope yet for big snows for LI but after todays runs im saying 6" max. if they're going to trend there going S&E taking into account that N/S has ended up more potent than forecasted in my opinion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm chaser Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 My wrapup of the 18z suite would be broken down as follows: NAM/HIRES NAM/WRF: Hi res models that are coming into their accurate range, the NAM should have been slightly more amplified then it was IMO however not nearly to the point of being as warm as other guidance. This camp may be seeing the effects of this very dynamic system correctly, though caution is advised being that they are only now reaching their accurate range. Euro/UKIE/GGEM: This camp is amped but not running inland to the point of what we witnessed from the RGEM. They are as user said snow to rain to snow and a good amount of it at that. This camp is where im sitting ATM or even slightly SE of what they are showing based on my feelings of the interaction of the kicker. I like their handling of the players on the field and feel that the final solution will be close to this camp. GFS/RGEM: These guys are in their own camp but in their own rights, the GFS is just a jumbled mess that floods the mid levels. The GFS is below average/poor on picking up the effects of dynamic cooling like the NAM camp. The RGEM has been an extremely useful tool this winter however I would never cancel a storm based upon the RGEM at 48 hours (and an 18z run at that). This camp likely has some correcting to do and I expect both to fall in line with the 12/18z suite of the Euro/UKIE/GGEM. Some good analysis, I think the RGEM this afternoon has made some people panic a bit especialy since it has been pretty useful this winter. Coming off the last couple days model runs this storm was looking almost like a lock for a foot plus for parts of the metro area than this afternoons runs said otherwise besides the nam which is the last model you want to have to rely on. Here is hoping 0z paints a better/snowier picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Some good analysis, I think the RGEM this afternoon has made some people panic a bit especialy since it has been pretty useful this winter. Coming off the last couple days model runs this storm was looking almost like a lock for a foot plus for parts of the metro area than this afternoons runs said otherwise besides the nam which is the last model you want to have to rely on. Here is hoping 0z paints a better/snowier picture. Which is why I hate being in the bullseye 3-4 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Which is why I hate being in the bullseye 3-4 days out. NYC was never Bullseye though - that title belonged to DCA as of last night who were projected to be 2 FT & parts of the Shanadoah valley 25-30 in by some models. .In the end anyone 30-35 miles west of I 95 is golden all the way through ME IMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 NYC was never Bullseye though - that title belonged to DCA as of last night who were projected to be 2 FT & parts of the Shanadoah valley 25-30 in by some models. .In the end anyone 30-35 miles west of I 95 is golden all the way through ME IMHO The greatest QPF even up until today was modeled to be right around NYC. You are correct with DCA however im speaking strictly in terms of our forum. Sorry for the confusion there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm chaser Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The greatest QPF even up until today was modeled to be right around NYC. You are correct with DCA however im speaking strictly in terms of our forum. Sorry for the confusion there. Hunterdon County/West Jersey should do Fine unless the Extreme RGEM track is taken. I don't think SE NJ, the Immediate Coast and LI were ever an ALL snow picture. 50+ miles off the coast(inland) should do real well if the track is even slightly off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Hunterdon County/West Jersey should do Fine unless the Extreme RGEM track is taken. I don't think SE NJ, the Immediate Coast and LI were ever an ALL snow picture. 50+ miles off the coast(inland) should do real well if the track is even slightly off the coast. If the RGEM verifies, then anyone in this forum can punt this one lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Remember the 0z NAM is the only model that won't have the new data capture by recon . This close to the storm, I doubt anything 'magical' is going to happen just because recon is out there. Which is why I hate being in the bullseye 3-4 days out. The day before the 'Blizzard of 1996' it looked like the worst of the storm would miss us to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 If the RGEM verifies, then anyone in this forum can punt this one lol. I'm not worried about the RGEM. Just a 1 off run. But the euro warm surge spooked me. That mid level warmth meant business. My hope is we get slugged 1st the that warmth is while we dry slot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm chaser Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 If the RGEM verifies, then anyone in this forum can punt this one lol. Your a Pro and have to act in such a way but I don't mind saying it would STING if we got a driving rainstorm when literally 12 hours ago was looking like this would be the biggest and most widespread snowfall of the season. It's hard to complain since we have had a lot of good storms but that scenario would put a damper on things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Your a Pro and have to act in such a way but I don't mind saying it would STING if we got a driving rainstorm when literally 12 hours ago was looking like this would be the biggest and most widespread snowfall of the season. It's hard to complain since we have had a lot of good storms but that scenario would put a damper on things. I don't think there's a single model, even the crazy RGEM run at 18z, that's showing a driving rainstorm. Every model has an intense period of snow to start with. I always thought it was more likely than not that rain/dryslot would enter the picture at some point for the coastal plain. Departing highs and no blocking are far more often inland favored storms. But potentially adding 6-8" to the snowpack of heavy wet snow is a big plus too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The minimum that any model shows is 3-5" for the NYC/NE NJ area. I have a question though.....does anyone feel that "model consistency" is sometimes overrated? I think it just means that the model has had the same idea for a longer time. So many times, however, the consistent model will switch to the solution of a model that has been inconsistent. Is there any page or link on these forums that have detailed descriptions of all proven model biases? That would prove most helpful! Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Even the 18z RGEM had 7-9" of snow for NYC and points N&W through 54 hours before changeover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 If the RGEM verifies, then anyone in this forum can punt this one lol. RGEM snow maps had all of nyc metro and nnj in 8+ inches of snow before the changeover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm chaser Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 RGEM snow maps had all of nyc metro and nnj in 8+ inches of snow before the changeover... See that is interesting for all the people going into Panic the WORST scenario/track thus far still shows a warning level front end dump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 RGEM snow maps had all of nyc metro and nnj in 8+ inches of snow before the changeover... When the worst case is 6-8" then I'd say that's pretty good. The front end thump could be extremely impressive with even some convective elements as was mentioned (maybe 2"+ an hour rates). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 When the worst case is 6-8" then I'd say that's pretty good. The front end thump could be extremely impressive with even some convective elements as was mentioned (maybe 2"+ an hour rates). It looks to be about an 8 hour period from when the heavy snow starts to when the temps warm up at the mid levels near NYC, maybe from 9z to 18z Thu. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 It looks to be about an 8 hour period from when the heavy snow starts to when the temps warm up at the mid levels near NYC, maybe from 9z to 18z Thu. Same time as 1993... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 Srefs look a bit wetter but also warmer @ 850s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 It looks to be about an 8 hour period from when the heavy snow starts to when the temps warm up at the mid levels near NYC, maybe from 9z to 18z Thu. This is probably a long shot but not impossible based on some of the models but hopefully we get at least 6" in the front end thump and then after all the taint/rain we get another 6" in the wraparound. That would be a huge win especially if surface temps stay around 34-35 and don't melt the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 the srefs are wetter, but pretty warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Same time as 1993... But that storm went up the Hudson Valley, this is still East of NYC, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 they torch after hr 48…looks like .7-.8 as snow this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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