Storm chaser Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 0z Euro was little further east and colder than 12z. Still a changeover to rain near the coast stays snow longer Farther Inland. But nice front end snows and backlash snows with the CCB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 It seems that we get frozen precip for the city and coast until maybe noon, and then we torch the mid levels after. Hopefully we see another nudge east tomorrow as it is still tucking the low in too far to prevent mixing/changeovers for many of us after the front end burst. The CCB seems good though behind it. It by far seems the deepest at 500mb of any model. Yea it closed off earliest (hr 30)..I think that's the earliest of the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Yea it closed off earliest (hr 30)..I think that's the earliest of the models Does it delay the changeover any and deliver a good front end snow? I don't have access to maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Snow MAP 6 + SE PA 12 + the rest of E PA NE PA NW NJ Central NJ 6 + NYC & Northern LI 6+ extreme N DE 6 + MD (north LESS south) South Central PA 12 + Using Wxbell maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm chaser Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 It seems that we get frozen precip for the city and coast until maybe noon, and then we torch the mid levels after. Hopefully we see another nudge east tomorrow as it is still tucking the low in too far to prevent mixing/changeovers for many of us after the front end burst. The CCB seems good though behind it. It by far seems the deepest at 500mb of any model. Euro Portraying a powerful storm but how is it with Thermal Profiles compared to the Hi Res models/Short Range Models ? Another Nudge East Tomorrow maybe a bit Colder and we are in Business. With that said could be a blend of Euro and couple other Models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm chaser Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Snow MAP 6 + SE PA 12 + the rest of E PA NE PA NW NJ Central NJ 6 + NYC & Northern LI 6+ extreme N DE 6 + MD (north LESS south) South Central PA 12 + Using Wxbell maps Well I would fall into that 12+ so not complaining but hope it trends a little better for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toople Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Snow MAP 6 + SE PA 12 + the rest of E PA NE PA NW NJ Central NJ 6 + NYC & Northern LI 6+ extreme N DE 6 + MD (north LESS south) South Central PA 12 + Using Wxbell maps Is northeast New Jersey also 6 + inches? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Is northeast New Jersey also 6 + inches? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Does it delay the changeover any and deliver a good front end snow? I don't have access to maps.Yes. Light snow breaks out at hr 30. Mod snow at hr 36 for all with heavy stuff on our door step. Hr 42 has the 850 and surface 0z line basically over knyc. So we (you and I change over maybe an hr or 2 before that. ) Then hr 48 we are warm (except the mid Hudson Valley and nwnj) . At hr 54 the 850s crash SE of us with the surface 0z line 20 miles nw of i95 with mod to heavy (probably sleet/rain to snow)This is def colder than 12z. So for us JM it's a nice front end dump followed by rain then the CCB drops a couple inches it looks like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 It's just incredible how powerfull this storm is I think everyone is being deceived by the qpf or lack thereof. This storm is something to be reckoned with if you live in dc, nw of Philly (or philly proper), nw jersey, nw subs of NYC, west Connecticut and most of mass and just east of I 87. With fundamentals this big, don't rely on qpf maps 48 hrs out, this will expand west by 50-125 miles with 1-2' totals in my estimation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 NYC is 8"-11" based off text soundings and snow map. And about .35"-.40" tainted with sleet/mix/rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Euro has a nice CCB after the changeover. Reminds me of Jan 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Does anyone think it trends east tomorrow on the 12Z models and gives NYC 12-18 inches with only a 2-3 hour period of sleet. LI to get 8-12 inches. I still think NYC could be on the east side of the jackpot 1-2' snows. Let's see what happens tomorrow. I would be 60 percent confident for NYC to get 1' and 20 percent for LI to get this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Euro has a nice CCB after the changeover. Reminds me of Jan 2011.Changeover to rain or back to snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Changeover to rain or back to snow? Snow to rain to snow right now but it can change tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Does anyone think it trends east tomorrow on the 12Z models and gives NYC 12-18 inches with only a 2-3 hour period of sleet. LI to get 1 foot. I still think NYC could be on the east side of the jackpot 1-2' snows. Let's see what happens tomorrow. It's not impossible. But LI is a big island. The east end is not getting a foot. NYC has a shot at a foot. Western LI has a much smaller chance IMO. There is still room for the models to wobble but you probably won't see drastic shifts. 12Z is your last real shot at a noticeable shift..and you better hope it's an east shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Snow to rain to snow right now but it can change tomorrow. I mean the ccb you mention is under snow or rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Well all of the 0z models trended favorable. Nam was good. Gfs nice track even though the qpf didnt reflected. Rgem was east..and the others aswell as the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Euro has a nice CCB after the changeover. Reminds me of Jan 2011. Lol Ant. That's a bit extreme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I mean the ccb you mention is under snow or rain? Snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Lol Ant. That's a bit extreme. Well not those 14 inch amounts that we seen with that storm but a couple of inches on the backend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 It's not impossible. But LI is a big island. The east end is not getting a foot. NYC has a shot at a foot. Western LI has a much smaller chance IMO. There is still room for the models to wobble but you probably won't see drastic shifts. 12Z is your last real shot at a noticeable shift..and you better hope it's an east shift. Even without a shift we'll have to nowcast and see if the front end dump can over perform. See if any banding sets up etc before we warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Well not those 14 inch amounts that we seen with that storm but a couple of inches on the backend. NYC received 19" and LGA 17.7" from Jan. 26-27, 2011. We are not going to get that this time. No chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 NYC received 19" and LGA 17.7" from Jan. 26-27, 2011. We are not going to get that this time. No chance. Never say never. Just a bump east and bam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ja643y Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Mods asleep, Mikehobbyist out. Lol.. all in good fun. Your posts make me laugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 On the AccuWeather board, some guy posted the Weatherbell Euro map and it has a 10" line running from about Wilmington to Belmar and a 12" line running from about Philly to Trenton and then over to Perth Amboy and then JFK (just about I-95), with everything NW of that line over a foot (up to 15") until snowfall starts to drop off way NW of I-95 (like well NW of the Philly CWA). The map even shows 3-5" all the way down to AC to Cape May, which I'm skeptical of (maybe the front end?). I've heard some question the Weatherbell maps, but never heard the reasoning. Assuming it's trustworthy, that's quite a hit for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 06z Topic http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42830-06z-models-2122014-potential-major-coastal-storm/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Did anyone miss the fact that the gfs has a 978 low inside the bm? Or is that irrelevant? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm chaser Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Well not those 14 inch amounts that we seen with that storm but a couple of inches on the backend. This storm can very EASILY drop 14 inches if things fall into place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Did anyone miss the fact that the gfs has a 978 low inside the bm? Or is that irrelevant? No it was discussed at length hours ago. Problem was the qpf sucked and had very little snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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