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The Big One - Observation


JoshM

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Yeah, I'm right at 32 now.  Untested zr thermometer, so it could be off a little.

 

I came very, very close to moving to Habersham when we relocated here.  Sort of wishing I did right about now lol.

lol - sometimes its agonizing watching it snow in white county and dry up lee side here.  other times this location seems to be ground zero for some storms.  we got 4.5" this morning - i was surprised (although very very happy).  grew up in athens so i know how yall feel down that way.

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Yea its not changing over anytime soon looking at the CC from the ATL radar... snow line is well N at the moment.

They sure are setting themselves up for a massive fail on that part of the storm. The only chance they had of snow was if there could be enough cooling at the start, which didn't happen. So the only other time is with the wrap around. Unless there is some unforeseen explosion of precip, no way they get more than an inch out of it.

 

I'm down to 32.7 . This might get ugly quick.  :yikes:

 

 

I'm a few miles SW of Kennesaw, GA btw.

Already ugly here folks. Everything out there has iced up outside with continued freezing rain mixed with sleet at times. Every so often it might go over to mostly sleet but mainly both. Temp down to 31.3

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They sure are setting themselves up for a massive fail on that part of the storm. The only chance they had of snow was if there could be enough cooling at the start, which didn't happen. So the only other time is with the wrap around. Unless there is some unforeseen explosion of precip, no way they get more than an inch out of it.

 

Already ugly here folks. Everything out there has iced up outside with continued freezing rain mixed with sleet at times. Every so often it might go over to mostly sleet but mainly both. Temp down to 31.3

Dang, be safe man! We stopped at 32.7 and are sitting there. Looks like a fail on the snow and sleet.

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Dang, be safe man! We stopped at 32.7 and are sitting there. Looks like a fail on the snow and sleet.

It's deja vu of all day today. The changeover was only as little as 5 miles away. I took a trip up the road and it was just unbelievable how close it was...and now this. Given the soundings it sure looked like there was a chance of several hours of snow here..but apparently that is all screwed up by a warm layer around 800mb of around 0.7c. Earlier model projections showed a completely below freezing profile to at most 0.1c there..apparently it's warmer than projected. Can only hope that as the wedge strengthens and the low levels cool even more it's able to refreeze some of this damn rain to sleet.  even the 06z rap showed this layer going below freezing by now but it hasn't. Sigh

SFC  998   213   0.3  -1.1  90  1.5  -0.2  59   7 273.6 274.2 273.0 283.2  3.53
  2  950   611  -2.4  -2.6  99  0.2  -2.5  64  25 274.8 275.3 273.3 283.9  3.32
  3  900  1040  -1.7  -1.8  99  0.1  -1.7  66  28 279.7 280.4 276.7 290.1  3.72
  4  850  1497  -0.2  -0.2 100  0.0  -0.2  86  14 286.0 286.8 280.7 298.6  4.44
  5  800  1983   0.7   0.6  99  0.1   0.7 192  11 291.9 292.8 284.0 306.3  5.00
  6  750  2502  -0.4  -0.4 100  0.0  -0.4 226  19 296.1 297.0 285.6 310.7  4.94
  7  700  3050  -3.8  -3.9  99  0.1  -3.8 235  22 298.3 299.0 285.5 310.5  4.09
  8  650  3633  -6.7  -7.1  97  0.4  -6.8 244  25 301.4 302.1 286.0 312.0  3.46
  9  600  4255  -9.7 -10.4  94  0.7  -9.9 252  32 304.9 305.4 286.7 313.9  2.88
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intensity has increased big time, but i feel a little guilty since yall just to my south didnt get any snow (at least yet, got my fingers crossed).

 

first pic without gust, second was with a wind gust.  tops of the trees are really swaying at times

 

edited to add:

 

ps the snow on the trees is NOT from tonight. that was left over from this morning...

post-289-0-20162800-1392190728_thumb.jpg

post-289-0-23155000-1392190738_thumb.jpg

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Sorry for the time delay was getting the family to bed...I'm in hart county...now down to 31 and snowing pretty good

Yep...just a county over. Folks in the upstate better hope the rap is wrong..it moves this damn warm nose at 800mb all the way through the upstate by hour 12/18z.

 

gsp at 18z

Date: 12 hour  valid 18Z WED 12 FEB 14
Station: KGSP
Latitude:   34.88
Longitude: -82.22
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W
     mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  0 1000   170                                                                 
SFC  989   264   0.5  -0.4  94  0.9   0.1  44  16 274.5 275.2 273.9 284.7  3.75
  2  950   586  -3.1  -3.2  99  0.1  -3.2  52  25 274.0 274.5 272.7 282.6  3.16
  3  900  1012  -4.0  -4.2  99  0.2  -4.1  80  32 277.3 277.9 274.5 286.0  3.10
  4  850  1467  -0.1  -0.1 100  0.0  -0.1 118  14 286.0 286.8 280.8 298.7  4.46
  5  800  1954   1.0   1.0 100  0.0   1.0 209  21 292.2 293.1 284.2 307.0  5.13
  6  750  2472  -0.2  -0.3  99  0.1  -0.2 194  34 296.4 297.3 285.7 311.1  5.00
  7  700  3023  -2.3  -2.4  99  0.1  -2.4 187  44 299.9 300.7 286.6 313.6  4.57
  8  650  3608  -5.4  -5.5  99  0.1  -5.4 197  42 302.9 303.6 287.0 314.8  3.91
  9  600  4233  -9.1  -9.5  97  0.4  -9.2 209  36 305.6 306.2 287.2 315.3  3.11
 10  550  4901 -13.1 -13.9  94  0.7 -13.4 218  35 308.5 308.9 287.5 316.1  2.38
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Not sure if this will translate downstream, but for SC/NC folks, don't be surprised if the ice starts earlier than expected. I didn't expect ice until around 7-8 am. Things are going to become very scary here quickly with the early arrival of precip. Praying my power stays on. I'm already hearing strange sounds from the trees as the ZR begins to build up.

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Yea NEGa already in the 25-30 dbz bands moving into SC.... snow/sleet line continues to advance northward, now halfway though Abbeville County, SC and slowly moving N.

 

The warm nose is very strong...I think it's going to surprise people who thought they'd stay out of the ice or sleet for the most part.

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I may be looking at ZR within the next half hour to an hour with this faster fall. 32.5 in Dunwoody with rain but has fallen about a degree in less than an hour, the fastest since yesterday. Come on IP!

 

 I just hit 32.0 for the first time here in Dunwoody at 2:40 AM. Is is now 32.2. Still all rain/no IP and nothing yet freezing on the bushes from what I can tell. Come on IP, where are you? I never expected snow in this early period, but was hoping for IP.

 

Edit: back down to 32.0 at 2:50 AM.

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Lookout, are you saying the temp profiles projections are a bust?

I would have to say yes, at least in the mid levels. There was a solid snow or mostly snow/sleet  sounding on every model each run here for the overnight hours to about 8 or 9am here. Obviously that's not the case.

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Yep...just a county over. Folks in the upstate better hope the rap is wrong..it moves this damn warm nose at 800mb all the way through the upstate by hour 12/18z.

 

gsp at 18z

 

 

Can't see how far their Ice Storm Warnings go since the whole state is pink; this is looking like folks expecting snow may wind up with Ice instead; dangerous situation unfolding it appears; worse than before.

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:(

mcd0087.gif

 

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0087
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0143 AM CST WED FEB 12 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NE AL...NRN AND CNTRL GA...MUCH OF SC

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 120743Z - 121345Z

SUMMARY...RAIN HAS BEGUN TO TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NE GA INTO SC. THIS TRANSITION WILL CONTINUE...WITH
FREEZING RAIN DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MCD AREA. FURTHER
NORTH ACROSS PARTS OF NE GA INTO NW SC...HEAVY SNOW /RATES NEAR 1 IN
PER HR/ WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. EXPECT HEAVY FREEZING RAIN /RATES
NEAR 0.05-0.10 IN PER HOUR/ AND SNOW TO BE ONGOING ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA BY 09-12Z.

DISCUSSION...COLD...DRY ADVECTION ON NELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA OVERNIGHT. AS WARM/MOIST AIRMASS
OVERRIDES COOLER NEAR-SFC LAYER AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSE
TRAVERSES ACROSS THE REGION...PRECIPITATION RATES WILL INCREASE. WET
BULB PROCESSES COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW FREEZING AND RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO
FREEZING RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF NRN AND CNTRL GA INTO CNTRL/ERN SC.
FURTHER NORTH...DEEP-LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
MAINLY SNOW /HEAVY AT TIMES/ FROM NE GA INTO NW SC.

THE TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO FREEZING RAIN WILL LIKELY BE IN A NARROW
CORRIDOR FROM NEAR KAHN EWD TOWARD KCAE. HEAVY SNOW IS LIKELY NORTH
OF THIS LINE...AND HEAVY FREEZING RAIN /POTENTIALLY MIXED WITH
SLEET/ ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE KAHN TO KCAE CORRIDOR. 06Z RAOBS FROM
CHS AND JAN INDICATED PW VALUES NEAR 1 INCH. THESE VALUES LIKELY
DROP OFF SOME WITH NWD EXTENT...BUT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL BE
PRESENT TO SUPPORT SEVERAL HOURS OF HEAVY FREEZING RAIN /SNOW
NORTH/...LEADING TO POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN THE VICINITY
OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR FROM CNTRL GA INTO CNTRL/ERN SC BY 12Z.

..LEITMAN.. 02/12/2014


ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...BMX...HUN...

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