Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

The Big One - Forecast & Discussion


Wow

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 2k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Got supplies and the sleds. I think we cash in on this one. 18z GFS looked good. Real modeling begins tomorrow as energy is being sampled. I'm sure they will be sending some recon flights out tonight or tomorrow if this looks like it's going to slow crawl up the east coast.

I thought the energy would be sampled for tonight's 0z runs?
Link to comment
Share on other sites

WOW.  The EPS members are way up!  Mean is up 2.25" in GSO alone to 10" as of the 12z run!  All 51 members show >2" and only five show less than 6".  It's the best EPS run yet without a doubt and the second improved run in a row.

 

Totals (this is probably mostly or all snow further north and west, but ice further south and east):

 

GSO: 10"

HKY: 9.5"

CLT: 11.5" (mixing?)

AVL: 10.25"

RDU: 9.75" (likely some mixing)

MWK: 8.75"

RWI: 7.75" (likely mixing)

PGV: 5.75" (definitely mixing)

FAY: 10" (definitely mixing)

DAN: 10"

CAE: 10" (obviously not snow, but IP and/or ZR) -> NO snow here... you're probably looking at 1" ZR and/or 1" ZR/IP

GSP: 11.5" (probable mixing?)

ATL: 5" (probably not much snow)

AHN: 9.75" (mixing, I'd presume)

RMG: 4" (mixing)

DNN: 4.25" (mixing)

 

If you want to know more locations, you can ask in the banter thread.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

BMX says there could be snow on Wednesday Night in Eastern AL.

 

THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPIDLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES IN THAT LAYER OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
THIS COULD RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO SLEET AND SNOW WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION
CLOSELY FOR THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A DEFORMATION BAND AND
DYNAMIC COOLING LEADING TO AT LEAST SOME CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ALABAMA.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

WOW.  EPS members way up!  Mean is up 2.25" in GSO alone to 10" as of the 12z run!  It's the best EPS run yet without a doubt and the second improved run in a row.

 

Totals (this is probably mostly or all snow further north and west, but ice further south and east):

 

GSO: 10"

HKY: 9.5"

CLT: 11.5"

RDU: 9.75"

MKW: 8.75"

DAN: 10"

CAE: 10" (obviously not snow, but IP and/or ZR)

GSP: 11.5"

Do you have enough info to determine totals for only the periods where snow is falling?
Link to comment
Share on other sites

ECMWF ENS mean for RDU is now 10 inches!

Looks like CLT is around 11.5 inches.

Again keep in mind it isnt all snow, takes ice into account.

I know this has been discussed, but I want to make sure I understand it:

If these snowfall maps show 10 inches, and presumably some of that is IP/ZR, does that mean if you stick a ruler in the ground, you'll measure 10 total inches of SN+IP+ZR or does that mean it's more likely that you'll measure something like 4 inches of SN+IP+ZR?

I think it's the latter because the model is counting ANY frozen/freezing precip as snow.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I know this has been discussed, but I want to make sure I understand it:

If these snowfall maps show 10 inches, and presumably some of that is IP/ZR, does that mean if you stick a ruler in the ground, you'll measure 10 total inches of SN+IP+ZR or does that mean it's more likely that you'll measure something like 4 inches of SN+IP+ZR?

I think it's the latter because the model is counting ANY frozen/freezing precip as snow.

 

It's the latter.  I think what it's saying is that RDU, for example, gets 1" QPF of wintry precipitation (thus, 10:1 ratios = 10" of snow).  RDU probably mixes, so I doubt the actual mean is 10".  Given the ensemble mean is apparently east of the op, places like CLT, GSO, HKY, DAN, and MWK might escape with all or almost all snow, though (just a guess), and RDU would probably get more snow than the op, as well.  That's just speculation, though.

 

That's also how you get it showing 10"+ in CAE when, in reality, that's almost certainly IP and/or ZR.

 

I am curious if the StormVista (?) maps that DT posted for the EPS mean are more accurate when accounting for mixing.  Does anyone know?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

CLT & NW South Carolina has 90% probability of equal to or greater than 6" based on the Euro EPS probabilities on WxBell. Entire state of NC has 90% chance at >1" and much of the state save east of I-95 has 90% chance at > 3"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...