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famartin

Potential storm February 12-13 2014

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Hi everyone,

 

Longtime lurker, enjoy the banter... finally signed up.  

 

Forgive if question is not appropriate for this thread...Intellicast radar has "future" loop.  Shows torrential rain for S NJ starting at 8:30 am and overtaking the region throughout the remainder of the day.  What model(s) is this based on ?
 

Thanks

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The typical scenario with changeovers is for the models to underestimate the rapidity of the warm air aloft.  Just keep it in mind.

 

Yea, I'm starting to get pretty concerned Philly may only end up with 4-6", then heavy sleet, then dry slot, and back end snow showers. 

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The typical scenario with changeovers is for the models to underestimate the rapidity of the warm air aloft.  Just keep it in mind.

 

I usually check the temps/S/E and along the shore once the precip begins and see the progress of the changeover...if they changeover quick then...usually not good.

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The typical scenario with changeovers is for the models to underestimate the rapidity of the warm air aloft.  Just keep it in mind.

by the same token they are often overdone on the warming at the surface....which is why I think sleet and zr will be what we flip to, and not rain.

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by the same token they are often overdone on the warming at the surface....which is why I think sleet and zr will be what we flip to, and not rain.

 

The surface winds will have a bearing on how the changeover progresses especially with a solid snow pack PHL points north and west.  Also in conjunction the exact track of the low.

 

Now wouldn't it be something for the storm to travel along the Sea Surface Temp Boundary.... remember storms take the track of least resistance no?

 

It is obvious that surface winds either North, NNE, or NE are much better than ENE, E, or ESE, or SE in that order....

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by the same token they are often overdone on the warming at the surface....which is why I think sleet and zr will be what we flip to, and not rain.

 

Geez louise...you think you sniffed out an icing situation that the NWS didn't? There is no surface high to lock in cold, the track is wrong for ZR, the surface low is too powerful. This is not a ZR setup for anyone save a small stripe perhaps along the route 1 corridor.

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Geez louise...you think you sniffed out an icing situation that the NWS didn't? There is no surface high to lock in cold, the track is wrong for ZR, the surface low is too powerful. This is not a ZR setup for anyone save a small stripe perhaps along the route 1 corridor.

 

Typically with coastals, sleet is more abundant than freezing rain. 

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Geez louise...you think you sniffed out an icing situation that the NWS didn't? There is no surface high to lock in cold, the track is wrong for ZR, the surface low is too powerful. This is not a ZR setup for anyone save a small stripe perhaps along the route 1 corridor.

My point was that I am somewhat skeptical that I-95 north and west flips to plain rain during this storm,. Maybe I am wrong, maybe I am right, but no I don't think I am smarter than NWS.  By the way, when the precip is light, I don't think it is out of the realm that we might see some ZR, and given the damage in much of the area last week, I thought it was at least worth mentioning.  

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My point was that I am somewhat skeptical that I-95 north and west flips to plain rain during this storm,. Maybe I am wrong, maybe I am right, but no I don't think I am smarter than NWS.  By the way, when the precip is light, I don't think it is out of the realm that we might see some ZR, and given the damage in much of the area last week, I thought it was at least worth mentioning.  

While some freezing rain is possible, I am in agreement that ice accretion should be minimal.

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While some freezing rain is possible, I am in agreement that ice accretion should be minimal.

Agreed, im more worried about heavy wet snow on these trees---i really don't feel like losing power again.

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New NAM has about 11" at TTN...  still in my 6-12 range but it makes me nervous.

I think where the ccb sets up will determine whether TTN can go over 12 inches.  I like your forecast, I'd definitely go higher end but I think you will verify.

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Ray, which is more reliable the 4km NAM or the regular NAM...its amazing the differences they have with the CCB on the back end. 

Greg Heavener posted a rule he goes by over on the other board:  Multiply 4KM NAM precip by .5 to .75.  In other words, cut by about a third.

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The NAM is awesome for the front snows. From 6z to 12z we get like an inch QPF  of paste snow, going to be coming down in absolute convective buckets before we likely dry slot around 8-9am, thats awesome for the city. Regardless of the wrap around. 

 

Front end thumpogenesis!

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