ChescoWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 HI Ray, Quick question what is the appropriate conversion for sleet as snow/sleet accumulation based on forecast qpf? Trying to figure based on the Wxsim changing to or mixing with IP for a while during the storm....how do you calculate that? Thx Paul If it wasn't for the warm interlude, it would be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Reading reports out of the MA forum that the latest NAM run is colder for them....then I'm reading reports out of the NYC forum that its warmer for them. Not sure how it plays out for PHL but assuming both forums are right how does that happen? Meaning how can the model get colder for MA at the mid-levels but warmer further north? What type of 850 track is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Reading reports out of the MA forum that the latest NAM run is colder for them....then I'm reading reports out of the NYC forum that its warmer for them. Not sure how it plays out for PHL but assuming both forums are right how does that happen? Meaning how can the model get colder for MA at the mid-levels but warmer further north? What type of 850 track is that?Yeah I saw that, HM mentions the possibility CSI for DC. My guess more rain for us....Edit HM didn't say thunder snow.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Reading reports out of the MA forum that the latest NAM run is colder for them....then I'm reading reports out of the NYC forum that its warmer for them. Not sure how it plays out for PHL but assuming both forums are right how does that happen? Meaning how can the model get colder for MA at the mid-levels but warmer further north? What type of 850 track is that? Could be because DC is further west. I remeber durning one of the ice storms in '94, we were getting clocked down here with temps in the mid 20's while Boston was a driving rainstorm with temps in the 50's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 The NAM is awesome for the front snows. From 6z to 12z we get like an inch QPF of paste snow, going to be coming down in absolute convective buckets before we likely dry slot around 8-9am, thats awesome for the city. Regardless of the wrap around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Just saw the clown maps for the NAM though and our entire area is under the 12-16" crayon color so who knows. Reading reports out of the MA forum that the latest NAM run is colder for them....then I'm reading reports out of the NYC forum that its warmer for them. Not sure how it plays out for PHL but assuming both forums are right how does that happen? Meaning how can the model get colder for MA at the mid-levels but warmer further north? What type of 850 track is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 HI Ray, Quick question what is the appropriate conversion for sleet as snow/sleet accumulation based on forecast qpf? Trying to figure based on the Wxsim changing to or mixing with IP for a while during the storm....how do you calculate that? Thx Paul I'm guessing you mean "ratio". Usually the sleet:water ratio is pretty low. 3:1 maybe. I think I heard it can even be 2:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 18Z NAM increased it to about 10" at TTN. Mainly because it increased the front-end dump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 You need upright convection for thundersnow. CSI won't cut it (CSI is also known as "slant-wise convection"). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 18Z NAM increased it to about 10" at TTN. Mainly because it increased the front-end dump. 8 to 12 inches for TTN looks solid at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Damn check out that line of storms about to ravage FLA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 We need info for everyone in our area although I can read the maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 18Z NAM increased it to about 10" at TTN. Mainly because it increased the front-end dump. Is that why everyone is going nuts about the 4K NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 You need upright convection for thundersnow. CSI won't cut it (CSI is also known as "slant-wise convection"). Oops, my bad. I did go back and re read the post and saw and fixed the post. What is the result of CSI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Damn check out that line of storms about to ravage FLA! Quakertown, you have permission to post radar of that squall line. Jeebus! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Is that why everyone is going nuts about the 4K NAM? It's hard to believe our region won't cash in very nicely from the front-end thumping - prior to being dry slotted. Could be as much as 10" from that for areas that stay all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 Oops, my bad. I did go back and re read the post and saw and fixed the post. What is the result of CSI? Heavy banded precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pohopoco Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Seems like Mt.Holly just bumped totals for it's farther N/W zone... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Seems like Mt.Holly just bumped totals for it's farther N/W zone... They bumped me from 6-8 to 8-10 because they know 2 inches would fall as sleet. Crap, this a storm discussion thread. That squall line in Florida is one of the most impressive I've ever seen in a "winter storm." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 MOTHER of GOD! This cant be right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 They bumped me from 6-8 to 8-10 because they know 2 inches would fall as sleet. Crap, this a storm discussion thread. That squall line in Florida is one of the most impressive I've ever seen in a "winter storm." Here is a real nice loop... http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=TBW-N0Q-0-12# Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAMSTORM22 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 question... I know the NAM just came out with some serious weenie maps, but it does have large accumulations for us along the shore (ocean/monmouth counties) how is mount holly only going 2-6"? so confused, and no one seems to give a damn about this part of the region (OC on south) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 courtesy from earthlight NY eye candy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 courtesy from earthlight NY eye candy Nice to see I'm in the yellow, however I'd be cautious since deform band/wrap around snow is hard to predicted where and even if.(wrap around). Also, how much of that is snow? I'm reading in the MA forum there might be aan even further track west with this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 18Z GFS is a bit east at 18. Should be colder run.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 yep, certainly colder, but still far less precip when compared to other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 storm already closed off...nws buying into more western track i.e. euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Just saw a snow accumulation map in the NYC forum for the 18z RGEM. Looks like it has the storm almost completely skipping our region after hitting the DC area hard and then hitting far northern NJ up into New England nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEchestercountydude Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Just saw a snow accumulation map in the NYC forum for the 18z RGEM. Looks like it has the storm almost completely skipping our region after hitting the DC area hard and then hitting far northern NJ up into New England nicely. Saw that. It has a sneaky warm layer and gives us a decent amount of sleet. I don't really buy that we get as much sleet as it thinks, but some other models have been hinting at it too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Just saw a snow accumulation map in the NYC forum for the 18z RGEM. Looks like it has the storm almost completely skipping our region after hitting the DC area hard and then hitting far northern NJ up into New England nicely. it's a warm layer causing a lot of sleet and maybe zr not s.kipping. it seems odd, but i guess it is in play Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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