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kvskelton

Winter Storm Threat: 9Feb-15Feb

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GFS seems to be on it's weaker/further south track still. Dumps decent snow in Arkansas and then streaks 1-3 inches across Northern Miss and Northern Alabama, very light snow across most of Tennessee, south of 40 and East of 1-81 before picking back up again in SE North Carolina.

 

I'll give em this, not sure which model is remotely close to being right, but they're all sticking to  their own guns with similar solutions from run to run. But none of them can agree on anything.

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UKMET, Candian, Euro, JMA, NAM vs GFS. Who ya got? Would be the coup of the winter if the GFS pulled off its "nothing" scenario. The NAM has painted precip in TN in the same spots for almost four straight runs. The Euro as well. I think the GFS just doesn't have it. Still 3-4 days out depending on location. Does appear a scenario is now being honed in IMO. Barring a March storm(which could easily happen) or late Feb storm...this is the storm that breaks winter in the East.

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VolMan.  Saw that too...The NAM has been hammering that same track for about five runs.  The Euro and Canadian hint at it as well.  Saw someone on the SE forum say this basically...If the 12z runs show the same thing today, bout time to get serious about this look.  Still holding my fire until those runs.  Hard not to get excited. 

 

edit:  tnweathernut...what do you think about this one?

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You're right, Carver...Robert has been consistent and accurate these past few weeks. If this thing is still on track this evening, then we might have something. Seems like the 11th-12th timeframe has been mentioned for a long time. Our local Channel 11 guy gave a little reference to this storm this morning, but didn't really discuss at all.

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oh no I'm in the jackpot zone! At least it's not 140hrs out and its more like 60hrs. Don't like being in the jackpot before the event as it sets up disappointment if the totals are not met. If I get an inch I'll be happy enough (at least I'm telling myself that).

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VolMan. Saw that too...The NAM has been hammering that same track for about five runs. The Euro and Canadian hint at it as well. Saw someone on the SE forum say this basically...If the 12z runs show the same thing today, bout time to get serious about this look. Still holding my fire until those runs. Hard not to get excited.

edit: tnweathernut...what do you think about this one?

I have been following, and I find it interesting there are still such differences with the NAM and GFS. GFS still very weak, NAM very strong.

USUALLY, I would feel very comfortable being on the north end of a 5-8 inch snow band under 84 hours out. I don't this time with the axis being west to east and zero gulf involvement. I think someone is going to get a thump, maybe a rare I-40 and points south type deal if the NAM works out.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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12z GFS still playing the roll of Dr. No...but edging closer to the others.  tnweathernut, I can't tell.  The angle of approach, like w/ hurricanes as you know, always helps.  Going to watch the Euro, Canadian, and UKMET to see if the GFS and NAM are on crack.  Based purely on the winter's trend, have to think this jogs just a tad north.  If the non-American models hold at 12z...going to have to say the GFS caves because it's leaning that way now.  Hope somebody in the Valley, even if it's not us, gets a great snow.  If the Valley gets a snow, have to think KTRI is involved. 

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The NAM paints the biggest snow here since the superstorm. Even outdoing our 8.5 inch snow from 2011. Until this gets better support from other models, I'm going to remain skeptical.

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The NAM paints the biggest snow here since the superstorm. Even outdoing our 8.5 inch snow from 2011. Until this gets better support from other models, I'm going to remain skeptical.

Always wise to cast a wary eye towards extreme solutions. They do happen but there is a reason they are rare. Looks like this will bring a pattern change...sometimes those storms are bigger.

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12z GFS still playing the roll of Dr. No...but edging closer to the others. tnweathernut, I can't tell. The angle of approach, like w/ hurricanes as you know, always helps. Going to watch the Euro, Canadian, and UKMET to see if the GFS and NAM are on crack. Based purely on the winter's trend, have to think this jogs just a tad north. If the non-American models hold at 12z...going to have to say the GFS caves because it's leaning that way now. Hope somebody in the Valley, even if it's not us, gets a great snow. If the Valley gets a snow, have to think KTRI is involved.

.

I feel like if anything this trends se. The NAM looks way too amped up. It could be right but given how the NAM over amplifies things I would assume that's the case here which is causing it to be too far nw.the RGEM looks like it would not be near as amped as the NAM. Of course it only goes to 48 hours

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The NAM paints the biggest snow here since the superstorm. Even outdoing our 8.5 inch snow from 2011. Until this gets better support from other models, I'm going to remain skeptical.

 

I always cut NAM snow in half when I look at those maps.  It still would be an awesome storm for many.

 

I don't have access to Euro at the moment, did 0z show TN any love on the overrunning event?  Seems I'm hearing it was south but not far off.

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.

I feel like if anything this trends se. The NAM looks way too amped up. It could be right but given how the NAM over amplifies things I would assume that's the case here which is causing it to be too far nw.the RGEM looks like it would not be near as amped as the NAM. Of course it only goes to 48 hours

Obviously at 12z the RGEM, Ukie and Canadian favor the Euro track which only gives NE TN a swipe and everyone else is out in the cold. Agree with Stove, always cut NAM totals in half. Similar track last week landed TRI and TYS with 4-5 inches of snow. Euro IMO is a tad south. GFS is out to lunch. NAM is too strong. Take a track down the middle. It would be rare, but not unprecedented, for TN not to score with this set-up. IMO there are very few mechanisms to prevent this from going north. Cold is not strong. No blocking to force it to dig. Looks like a slider.

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My current thoughts on storm vs no snow are simple. The GFS is very likely on crack. When the NAM and EURO are in agreement, you can almost bank it.

My current thoughts on a thump of snow would be an I-40 and south event, perhaps into northern MS, AL, and GA. I hope the moisture field is more expansive than shown and KTRI can get involved.

As far as amounts, I'd cut the NAM amounts down to a 4-6 type as the NAM is usually too aggressive on qpf.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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Euro definitely an all snow event in east tennessee...much better looking than earlier though not a ton of QPF...good run for Chatt...

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SREF 21 member mean shows .25-.50 from the eastern highland rim and points eastward. .10-.25 west of there. 5 members shows less than .10 almost valley wide. 5 show .50-1.00 over a large portion of the Tennessee valley, mostly centered Eastern half with amounts over .75. One shows well over 1 inch with 1.5+ over the Chattanooga area.

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