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kvskelton

Winter Storm Threat: 9Feb-15Feb

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That ain't worth a fudge for us. At least someone gets walloped.

 

I am not good w/ ice scenarios, but this run just smashes northern Georgia.  Can someone check northern Alabama for ice accumulation?

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I'm going with the standard of never trusting the NAM again. Hopefully it wins me back. 

Never an unwise thing.  The phase is occurring at 48 which is right at its accuracy threshold.  We'll cross our fingers.

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Well, though it has me really excited to see that, cant really trust it yet. Just really fun to watch this thing play out see the models changing, and thats really all i can do, Being just a semi-uneducated watcher, i just rely on what i see here and what i hear from the more knowledgeable people. Weather just makes me happy lol

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I won't start a separate thread, lol! Feb 10-11 the strength of the cold coming in from the north dictates things. No jog northwest with such impressive high press. The 18Z NAM was a fluke on Sunday. Apparently it lost the midday Monday lead wave which means punt the run from there through Tuesday. Now looks like Monday night and Tuesday could just be light frozen precip in parts of the Mid South and far northern Deep South, with rain elsewhere Deep South. In a very rare turn of events in the South, we have new hope Wednesday. Sounds like a Star Wars title...

 

Robert is right about the Carolinas. Wedge is going to cause ice problems. Note that alleged NAM crazy high snowfall will probably be ice. Glad I'm on this side of the Apps!

 

00Z (Mon) NAM in fairly good agreement with 12Z Euro (Sun). Wednesday is now the day to watch for the Mid South and Tennessee Valley. GFS south track won't be rewarded with a negatively tilted bowling ball. Tuesday and Wednesday are as different as supercells and line thunderstorms. I'm more concerned about too much WAA at least in Chatty, North Alabama and like places. Some hours of plain rain? North Mississippi should have enough cold air to get snow. Northeast Georgia, on the other hand, could be in Robert's house of ice pain due to the wedge wrap around. Memphis and Nashville may be in the light snow zone. Plateau, Knox to Tri Cities would be moderate snow if these are perfect. Jury is out in Huntsville and Chatty. Storm track is perfect, but the cold is not as anchored. Dynamics vs WAA may settle it. I'm not sure we can all win on Wednesday without as much cold air anchored. Still feel good about action somewhere in the Mid South and/or Tennessee Valley.

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I am not good w/ ice scenarios, but this run just smashes northern Georgia.  Can someone check northern Alabama for ice accumulation?

Skew=T's in Northern Alabama show either rain or snow. I'd side with rain to snow TBH. 850s are +3 at hour 63 and they are -3 and the surface is probably 35 at hour 66. But moisture is pulling away by then.

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I am not good w/ ice scenarios, but this run just smashes northern Georgia. Can someone check northern Alabama for ice accumulation?

This map is from CoolWx but I'm not sure if this is accurate or not. Ice is in liquid equivalent.

qu4etyhe.jpg

Sorry for the poor quality.

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David Boyd (WCYB) mentions the possibility of a significant snow on Wednesday, and used the term "accumulating snow likely".. He also used the phrase "moderate to heavy snowfall event is possible for the southern apps region"

Nathan Scott (WJHL) mentioned the possibility of a light to possibly moderate snow on his evening news cast. Will be interesting to see if he alters his wording on his nightly cast at 11.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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Precip type maps switch Chattanooga to rain briefly. The snow line in Middle Tennessee/Northern Alabama looks like its basically aligned with the OHX CWA and the Huntsville CWA.  But those areas switch to snow by hour 69. It's just a general guide though. 

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So, now keeping it real...re: 0z NAM

 

1. It is the NAM past 48 hours but not by much....

2. Long duration snow event depicted for E TN

3. Phases earlier and almost creates a double barrel low.  Looks like the 12z Canadian and somewhat like the Euro.

4.  Extreme solutions rarely verify.  If the trend is northwest, we are in business.  But that trend is because the low phases earlier.  So, the million dollar question is this, "Is it right?"  We should know by tomorrow night.

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Ok, back to nervous nausea again.

 

Thank you, Jeff! House of Ice Pain, ugh. No chance of that here, I hope. As fast as these models are changing, I'm in the trust nothing phase.

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Thanks, John. I was just going to ask you if that was West Knox Co in that pink on the map you posted.

 

edit: Big news messing with the servers. 54 people on our little thread.

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0z GFS...nothing.  Cut-off on the spine of the Apps, but a bigger run even for it.  Second run it has moved towards the Euro.  Phases later and is slower it appears.  It has been late to the party all week.  Let's see what the Canadian and Euro say.

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With the first wave no longer being the emphasis, I'd guess tomorrow's 00 runs should tell the whole story. 

 

FWIW almost everything I have read except the JKL AFD earlier discounts the GFS. Not saying it's wrong, just that the balance of Mets seem to disagree with it as of now.

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