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February 13-14 potential snow storm


Mikehobbyst

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The Euro still has a meaningful shortwave and trough with a small phase occurring at 120 hrwhile the GFS at that hour had completely dampened out the shortwave in a progressive flow.

 

Impossible to say which one is right at this juncture but the Euro will definitely lean towards the GGEM and that is not hard to see at all. 

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I love big rainstorms, call me strange. The heavier the rain the better. What it stems from is that my love is for big storms, no matter what kind.

I would normally agree with you but not when we have a nice beautiful snow-covered landscape that would just get turned into ugly grass and mud.

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The high is retreating to the northeast but this is coming up the coast and in a much more organized fashion than the GFS.

But what is the trend???  0z was weaker and further east then 12z yesterday and that was further east then 0z Thursday.  If today's 12z is again further east then I think we can see where this is going...  When a storm is 5 days away its not about what each run of the operation model shows but also about the setup and how things are trending. I won't get to "see" the run until later, but I want to see it hold serve or if anything have a stronger solution then previous to feel comfortable it is not trending towards the GFS.  GGEM btw was well west of where it is not yesterday also. 

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But what is the trend???  0z was weaker and further east then 12z yesterday and that was further east then 0z Thursday.  If today's 12z is again further east then I think we can see where this is going...  When a storm is 5 days away its not about what each run of the operation model shows but also about the setup and how things are trending. I won't get to "see" the run until later, but I want to see it hold serve or if anything have a stronger solution then previous to feel comfortable it is not trending towards the GFS.  GGEM btw was well west of where it is not yesterday also. 

This isn't trending towards being an OTS solution. It either phases or it doesn't. If it phases a little you get today's Euro. If it doesn't phase at all you get the GFS. If it phases big, well we haven't seen that yet.

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I think this isn`t a bad place to be  6 days out as it`s  East of it`s 0z  its an  all out snowstorm just away from coast . but 850`s are below 0 c for the whole area thru 144 , so the surface is so close at the coast , not a bad solution sitting here . 

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