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Mikehobbyst

February 13-14 potential snow storm

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While we're throwing out analogs how about this one?

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Eek a 96' reference. Brace yourself for flaming for that reference this far out :lol:. This storm is going to change plenty of times and the track isnt even important right now just the players on the field as we get closer. Btw yank i agree if that ULL in seattle is still there it may give this fits as far as an optimal phase should this get to that point as a threat

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If that ULL low over the PAC NW ends up being a bit further west it would benefit us by helping to actually amplify the ridge out west instead of flattening it.

Not sure why you want this storm amplifying even more than this run. unless you like rain

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Not sure why you want this storm amplifying even more than this run. unless you like rain

This is a good point and the confluence being so strong in SE canada and NE would argue a BM track not a tucked low track. This will change 10000x times but verbatim i cant see this going inland like that with that monsterous confluence

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This is a good point and the confluence being so strong in SE canada and NE would argue a BM track not a tucked low track. This will change 10000x times but verbatim i cant see this going inland like that with that monsterous confluence

Verbatim the confluence pulls out as the low approaches. The 50-50 low feature books it into the Atlantic.

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I like your enthusiasm but neither of those 2 analogs are even close, this is a thump to rainstorm verbatim for the most part for Philly & NYC. March 4-6 2001 analog? While we initially have a good HP to the North, there's no 50/50 to keep it in place so it slides into the doom area. The Low ends up on top of NYC. 

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I like your enthusiasm but neither of those 2 analogs are even close, this is a thump to rainstorm verbatim for the most part for Philly & NYC. March 4-6 2001 analog? While we initially have a good HP to the North, there's no 50/50 to keep it in place so it slides into the doom area. The Low ends up on top of NYC. 

Does it even matter this far out? 

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Verbatim the confluence pulls out as the low approaches. The 50-50 low feature books it into the Atlantic.

yeah, we've got no blocking. not really an ideal setup at all but i guess it could work if it's timed right. but we all know timing will not be correct 6-7 days out 

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Eek a 96' reference. Brace yourself for flaming for that reference this far out :lol:. This storm is going to change plenty of times and the track isnt even important right now just the players on the field as we get closer. Btw yank i agree if that ULL in seattle is still there it may give this fits as far as an optimal phase should this get to that point as a threat

I'm hard pressed to find a good analog at the moment. Anyway I can handle the bashing for the 96' reference. I take bashing here on a daily basis.

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Yank, March 01 had a really amazing block which forced the ULL to retrograde, this pattern and that are probably total opposites. Not sure why you would even mention it as an analog...Take a look at March 01

 

post-8091-0-05077700-1391714307_thumb.gi

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I'm hard pressed to find a good analog at the moment. Anyway I can handle the bashing for the 96' reference. I take bashing here on a daily basis.

Thumbs up for taking the beatings like a man! :lol: me personally i think we should put this threat on the back burner and still concentrate on what we can possibly make of the weekend threat and come back to this monday. By that time were around 100 hours out and can maybe start taking a closer look at this

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Honestly we should all be happy even if we get no more snow for the rest of the winter. Everyone is above average, some well above average. There's also no point discussing details of this storm over a week out especially considering the debacle with this weekend's storm, it's just foolish. 

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Honestly we should all be happy even if we get no more snow for the rest of the winter. Everyone is above average, some well above average. There's also no point discussing details of this storm over a week out especially considering the debacle with this weekend's storm, it's just foolish.

Well totally giving up on the weekend storm would be foolish considering the NAM and the GFS to some degree actually showed better spacing between lead wave and 2nd one and other factors in the weekend storm. Lets come back monday to this

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If you want to find an analog, look at 1994.

Not sure why people are still looking at any other year.

 

Yesterday's event was a Feb. 23, 1994 analog.

This one is similar to Feb. 11, 1994. It's not exact, but it's close enough.

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Just based off the overall teleconnections/pattern setup. I'm just saying it is more favorable for them. 

 

Disagree. The entire pattern is a Feb. 1994 one and all our events have worked out.

This next one looks like a Feb. 11, 1994 repeat.

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