Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Feb 12-13 Sleet/Snow/ZR Event


JoshM

Recommended Posts

gsp won't put out anything about next week yet.  they are talking rain and snow right now but I have a feeling it will be mostly snow in the mtns. with some sleet at the end but by the end most the moisture has fallen as snow.  gsp still staying conservative.  I thought maybe a HWO might be out about next week but I guess its to early. 

 

Nope, it's out already:  http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=NCZ056&warncounty=NCC035&firewxzone=NCZ056&local_place1=&product1=Hazardous+Weather+Outlook#.UvQNxH9EnYc

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 2.1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

one place you read that the models are trending colder for next week then you read where the low will kick the hp east.  also read where the lakes low isn't there anymore, so just wandering which is it      :whistle:

 

There were 2 events on the 18z...The first event was colder but when the 2nd event (main) came the hp was sliding east do to the lakes low.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just saw the ensemble members from the ECMWF for RDU pretty impressive. Ensemble mean snowfall is around 5-6 inches. Now keep in mind as I posted earlier today, I bellieve these "snow accumulations" include at least some sleet/ice component so I think they are overdone in these types of setups.

 

But all 51 members have some sort of accumulation of snow/ice at RDU next week. I count 11 that get to 9 or more inches.  19 that are 6 or more inches. 40 that are 2+ inches.

 

Again, the snow totals take with a grain of salt as in this setup this will likely be all snow especially for RDU. But this is very storng signal that the ECMWF ENS members are supporting a major winter storm next week.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This will be a very interesting storm to track over the next few days. A complicated set-up with many different factors will help determine if any wintry weather occurs in the southeast and up through the mid-Atlantic.

 

The support from the ensembles are appear to be very good (I can not see the EURO ensemble individual members, but based on what I read it appears to be very good).

 

I still am not totally bought in on what the models are saying. It was around this time frame when they had this system coming through on Saturday wrapping up the east coast and bringing heavy rain to the southeast and snow on the backside. 

 

The first thing I am trying to nail down is the track of the storm. Where does the surface low go, where is the high pressure positioned to the north, how does it interact with the northern energy, and is it able to track up the coast? I don't know the answers to this at the moment. The chance is there, but I am not sure if the models are handling this storm the best at the moment...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The EPS mean is over 8" here.  Of course, those totals have to be taken with a grain of salt to some degree, but that's still a pretty big deal.  There's a lot of big dog 9"+ members.  The EPS mean continues to tick upwards with each run.

 

Other cities:

 

Greensboro: 8"

Asheville: 7.5"

Charlotte: 6"

Greenville, SC: 4.5"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I know I probably shouldn't ask but what about Asheville?

Folks, let's ease up with all the "how much for my back yard" questions. It's far enough out in advance that it's best to talk in generalities anyway and not focus on exact totals..which is silly to worry about considering how far it is in the future to begin with.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just saw the ensemble members from the ECMWF for RDU pretty impressive. Ensemble mean snowfall is around 5-6 inches. Now keep in mind as I posted earlier today, I bellieve these "snow accumulations" include at least some sleet/ice component so I think they are overdone in these types of setups.

 

But all 51 members have some sort of accumulation of snow/ice at RDU next week. I count 11 that get to 9 or more inches.  19 that are 6 or more inches. 40 that are 2+ inches.

 

Again, the snow totals take with a grain of salt as in this setup this will likely be all snow especially for RDU. But this is very storng signal that the ECMWF ENS members are supporting a major winter storm next week.

 

The mean put around 2 inches of snow here in KCAE.  We sure aren't going to be cold enough for 2 inches of snow; so I would definitely say they count any frozen precipitation at a 10:1 ratio.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

As Greg Fishel just said: "5 days ago models were saying we were getting absolutely dumped on this weekend yet that storm is nowhere to be found. Im not gonna worry about this next storm that 5 days out".

 

Pretty much sums it up for me as well. Maybe Sunday we will know more but as of right now all the QPF predictions as well temps are just that-models. Dont trust a single one of em.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

As Greg Fishel just said: "5 days ago models were saying we were getting absolutely dumped on this weekend yet that storm is nowhere to be found. Im not gonna worry about this next storm that 5 days out".

 

Pretty much sums it up for me as well. Maybe Sunday we will know more but as of right now all the QPF predictions as well temps are just that-models. Dont trust a single one of em.

 

Big fly in the ointment with that thinking is the EPS wasn't on board with nearly all it's members for NC for the non-event.  The last time the EPS did this, was the Jan. snow most of us saw.  In fact, for KCAE this non-event was shown on the EPS aside from one or two members.  This mid-week event already has over 20 members or so here (some heavy), and almost every member for CLT for example.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

As Greg Fishel just said: "5 days ago models were saying we were getting absolutely dumped on this weekend yet that storm is nowhere to be found. Im not gonna worry about this next storm that 5 days out".

 

Pretty much sums it up for me as well. Maybe Sunday we will know more but as of right now all the QPF predictions as well temps are just that-models. Dont trust a single one of em.

 

There’s much more model agreement for this storm.  The Euro,CMC,UKMO, GFS, along with all the ensemble means show a winter storm with a good CAD signature right now. 

 

The same could not be said for the last non-event.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

As Greg Fishel just said: "5 days ago models were saying we were getting absolutely dumped on this weekend yet that storm is nowhere to be found. Im not gonna worry about this next storm that 5 days out".

Pretty much sums it up for me as well. Maybe Sunday we will know more but as of right now all the QPF predictions as well temps are just that-models. Dont trust a single one of em.

Big fly in the ointment with that thinking is the EPS wasn't on board with nearly all it's members for NC for the non-event. The last time the EPS did this, was the Jan. snow most of us saw. In fact, for KCAE this non-event was shown on the EPS aside from one or two members. This mid-week event already has over 20 members or so here (some heavy), and almost every member for CLT for example.

I was going to say this is a different deal. The models have all been very consistent with some sort of winter storm here. There might be questions as to how much and if it will be mainly snow or ice, but there is no doubt they are all showing something and not backing down. But I would not expect Fishel to say anything different. He is always very conservative and waits until about 48 hours to mention the possibility.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

As Greg Fishel just said...

 

I fixed your quote for you:

 

"Five days ago, there were computer model forecasts that were DUMPING on the east coast this weekend... and suddenly that storm is gone! Just like that! So, (Debra Morgan interrupting: "too soon to tell?") yea, same thing could happen to this one."

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The track will be the most important thing over the next few days. There is no doubt that the models and the ensembles appear to be onto something; however, I am still not sure what exactly will happen. I believe there will be swings in the models over the next few days as they begin to handle the system better.

We have to remember the storm is not even on the coast yet, so it will take time for it to be sampled correctly. With the fast flow, the storm must try to wrap itself up and move up the east coast with the trough going negative to help develop a big storm. These are details that will need to be monitored moving forward.

Here is a graphic I posted on my website. Right now, it looks very good, I am not sure though how long it will remain. The models have been very inconsistent this winter, but it is nice to at least have the EURO and GFS showing at least similar ideas. I have more details broke down on my website: http://wxjordan.com/weather/discussions/300-watching-a-midweek-storm-that-could-bring-wintry-mess-to-southeast

Slide4.GIF

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12z GFS CIP's analogs have several good hits…(See Brick, I can be positive, but I agree with Fishel, look for the magic show to commence slowly but steadily, "the great winter storm disappearing act"

 

Analogs..

 

http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=EC&model=GFS212&fhr=F120&flg=

 

Hits….

 

http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.19880108.gif

 

http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20030116/

 

http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20030123/

 

http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.19960107.gif

 

http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.20030227.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18z DGEX looks like a heck of a ZR storm for CLT. 

OH NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO! I SINCERELY hope the overall temperatures can work out to where we do NOT have to experience ZR AT ALL!! I lived through 2002 and 2005 and that is all I will ever need. This is VERY serious if the trend is ZR. Hoping the upper/mid level temps work out colder and we have no waa. Hope everyone is doing well! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I was looking at meteostar for Atlanta, marietta, and Gainesville and didn't see much verbatim.

 

 Marietta,

 With the heaviest qpf well south of N GA on the 18Z GFS, the amounts in the ATL-AHN corridor are much lighter than the prior run. I'm guessing as of now that's a hiccup as trends usually go north rather than south, if anywhere. Regardless, this is the first GFS run for which ATL-AHN gets down to 32 verbatim for the coldest with the precip., which looks to me like mainly ZR but also with some IP. Even way down to SAV and CHS, where the rain is quite plentiful, it gets all of the way down to 35 with precip. That's not something seen very often. Thls all tells me that there's plenty of cold air for this system or series of systems with which to work. Meanwhile, much of NC still gets hit hard. We're now at 12 of the last 13 GFS runs and 5 Euro runs in a row with sig. wintry precip. in sig. parts of the SE within 2/11-13! It can't get much more impressive than that! Also, unlike many of the first runs, the focus of the wintry precip. verbatim is no longer just on NC.

I think that the threat of sig. wintry precip. for ATL-AHN continues to slowly grow.

 

Edit: I recommend that the thread title be changed to Feb. 11-13 sleet, snow, ZR threats or something similar. As of now, 1/11 is being ignored by the title and there may be two events.

 

 Edit #2: Maybe I'm forgetting, but I honestly don't recall this persistent of a threat of a major ZR at ATL-AHN since 2005, when there were two actual sig. ZR's (big on in Jan. and lesser one in Dec.). I also think sig. IP is very much on the table.

 

Edit #3: The precip. potential is quite high as a result of the VERY moist Pacific flow into the SF area this weekend and from there into the SE. SF is set to get their heaviest precip. event since 12/2012 (3-4")! So, this is way wetter than your average system regarding potential at least.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...