Central PA and The Fringes - February 2014 Part II

[Hoar_Frost]

Yea, but precip. has really cut back on most models and it looks like 10 to 1 if we're lucky. But hey, its def gonna snow, so I'll enjoy every flake!

Most models?

[pawatch]

heavy_wx : Nice write up!!

Gave us a more detailed look at how the models preformed.

 

[djr5001]

I would have never guessed 10:1

The lowest ratio snow likely fell before my 7am measurement and ratios likely slowly improved throughout the remainder of the storm as PWAT levels fell... the last inch was more of the dry and fluffy kind than the cement

 

I took a core sample with my gauge and melted it down... had compacted to about 5.5" since my 5.9" measurement... melted down to .76" so compacted 5.5" snow pack has a 7 to 1 snow to liquid ratio which makes sense to me but would mean .09" of liquid was what I had as rain before changeover last night

 

27 degrees here and everything that was wet is now frozen... trees still leaning with occasional cracking of limbs

[paxpatriot]

Someone on Mid-Atlantic said the 18Z GFS bufkit data for HGR shows 7" of snow, followed by 1" of freezing rain. Not buying it obviously, just thinking about the bedlam that would cause, lol.

[NortheastPAWx]

CTP

 

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 500MB HEIGHT FALLS
WILL EJECT ENEWD FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE NORTHEAST TUE NGT-
WED. STG 850-700MB THETAE ADVECTION AND IMPRESSIVE MSTR TRANSPORT
IS EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF A DEVELOPING PRIMARY SFC LOW PRES OVR
THE TN VLY...ALONG NOSE OF BROAD 50+KT LLVL JET FOCUSING ALONG THE
APPLCHNS INTO CENTRAL PA. THE INTENSE LOW-MID LVL THETAE ADV
COMBINED ABOVE NORMAL PWAT SURGE AND FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION UPPER JET DYNAMICS WILL RESULT IN ENHANCED UVM AND SUPPORT
AN AXIS OF MOD-HVY QPF ACRS THE CWA. AS THE PRIMARY SFC LOW TRACKS
TWD SW PA...SECONDARY LOW FORMATION IS EXPECTED ON WED NEAR THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA AS THE MAIN ENERGY TRANSFERS TO THE COAST.

THE WARM ADV COMPONENT OF THE 850-700MB THETAE ADV WILL RESULT IN
A SWATH OF PCPN OVERRUNNING A STUBBORN COLD SECTOR OVER CNTRL PA.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A BAND OF MULTIPLE PTYPES/WINTRY MIX..PARTICULARLY
ACRS THE SRN 1/3 OF PA WHERE FROZEN PTYPES SHOULD TRANSITION TO
RAIN/FREEZING RAIN. A BLEND OF THE LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS
CONTINUES TO TREND COLDER WHICH HAS SUPPRESSED THE MIXED PCPN ZONE
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH TOWARD THE PA TURNPIKE AND MD BORDER. MODEL
AND ENSEMBLE LLVL THERMAL PROFILES FAVOR MAINLY SNOW ACRS THE NRN
1/2 TO 1/3 OF THE CWA. WITH THE MILLER-B TRANSITION OCCURRING TO
THE SOUTH OF THE AREA...EXPECT THE LLVL COLD AIR WEDGE TO REMAIN
QUITE STUBBORN OVR THE ERN SLOPES OF THE ALLEGHENIES DUE TO NELY
LVLL AGEO WINDS. THE MODELS ARE USUALLY TOO OPTIMISTIC IN WARMING
SFC TEMPS ABV FZG IN THIS TYPE OF SFC PRESSURE/COLD AIR DAMMING
PATTERN.

HIGHEST PROBS/FCST HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMS...BASED LARGELY ON A BLEND
OF THE PREVIOUS FCST AND LATEST WWD AND SREF/GEFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
ARE CURRENTLY ACRS THE N-CENTRAL ZONES BUT WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND
ON THE PLACEMENT OF QPF AXIS...WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE SHIFTED A BIT
TO THE S WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. THE GREATEST RISK FOR
SIGNIFICANT FZRA WILL BE OVER THE LAURELS AND S-CENTRAL MTNS WITH
UP TO 0.50 INCH OF ICE PSBL. EXPANDED THE WINTER STORM WATCH TO
COVER THE ENTIRE CWA. IT LOOKS LIKE A VERY MESSY PERIOD FROM TUE
NGT THRU WED AFTN WITH SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO TRAVEL EXPECTED
ESPECIALLY DURING THE WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING MID-
WEEK STORM...AND SHOULD A BREAK IN THE ACTIVE EARLY FEB PATTERN
FOR THURS/FRI. THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE TRENDING
TOWARD A CONSENSUS FOR THE NEXT WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE AREA
FOR SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED WITH THE WEEKEND SYSTEM IN
DUE TO BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AND SPREAD THAT WILL NEED TO BE RESOLVED AT SHORTER
RANGES. THE 12Z CONSENSUS MODEL DATA INDICATES THE HIGHEST POPS ON
DAY 7/SUN.

[MAG5035]

Highlighted some parts for ya, haha. 

 

CTP

 

 

 

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 500MB HEIGHT FALLS
WILL EJECT ENEWD FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE NORTHEAST TUE NGT-
WED. STG 850-700MB THETAE ADVECTION AND IMPRESSIVE MSTR TRANSPORT
IS EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF A DEVELOPING PRIMARY SFC LOW PRES OVR
THE TN VLY...ALONG NOSE OF BROAD 50+KT LLVL JET FOCUSING ALONG THE
APPLCHNS INTO CENTRAL PA. THE INTENSE LOW-MID LVL THETAE ADV
COMBINED ABOVE NORMAL PWAT SURGE AND FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION UPPER JET DYNAMICS WILL RESULT IN ENHANCED UVM AND SUPPORT
AN AXIS OF MOD-HVY QPF ACRS THE CWA. AS THE PRIMARY SFC LOW TRACKS
TWD SW PA...SECONDARY LOW FORMATION IS EXPECTED ON WED NEAR THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA AS THE MAIN ENERGY TRANSFERS TO THE COAST.

THE WARM ADV COMPONENT OF THE 850-700MB THETAE ADV WILL RESULT IN
A SWATH OF PCPN OVERRUNNING A STUBBORN COLD SECTOR OVER CNTRL PA.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A BAND OF MULTIPLE PTYPES/WINTRY MIX..PARTICULARLY
ACRS THE SRN 1/3 OF PA WHERE FROZEN PTYPES SHOULD TRANSITION TO
RAIN/FREEZING RAIN. A BLEND OF THE LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS
CONTINUES TO TREND COLDER WHICH HAS SUPPRESSED THE MIXED PCPN ZONE
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH TOWARD THE PA TURNPIKE AND MD BORDER. MODEL
AND ENSEMBLE LLVL THERMAL PROFILES FAVOR MAINLY SNOW ACRS THE NRN
1/2 TO 1/3 OF THE CWA. WITH THE MILLER-B TRANSITION OCCURRING TO
THE SOUTH OF THE AREA...EXPECT THE LLVL COLD AIR WEDGE TO REMAIN
QUITE STUBBORN OVR THE ERN SLOPES OF THE ALLEGHENIES DUE TO NELY
LVLL AGEO WINDS. THE MODELS ARE USUALLY TOO OPTIMISTIC IN WARMING
SFC TEMPS ABV FZG IN THIS TYPE OF SFC PRESSURE/COLD AIR DAMMING
PATTERN.

HIGHEST PROBS/FCST HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMS...BASED LARGELY ON A BLEND
OF THE PREVIOUS FCST AND LATEST WWD AND SREF/GEFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
ARE CURRENTLY ACRS THE N-CENTRAL ZONES BUT WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND
ON THE PLACEMENT OF QPF AXIS...WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE SHIFTED A BIT
TO THE S WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. THE GREATEST RISK FOR
SIGNIFICANT FZRA WILL BE OVER THE LAURELS AND S-CENTRAL MTNS WITH
UP TO 0.50 INCH OF ICE PSBL. EXPANDED THE WINTER STORM WATCH TO
COVER THE ENTIRE CWA. IT LOOKS LIKE A VERY MESSY PERIOD FROM TUE
NGT THRU WED AFTN WITH SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO TRAVEL EXPECTED
ESPECIALLY DURING THE WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING MID-
WEEK STORM...AND SHOULD A BREAK IN THE ACTIVE EARLY FEB PATTERN
FOR THURS/FRI. THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE TRENDING
TOWARD A CONSENSUS FOR THE NEXT WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE AREA
FOR SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED WITH THE WEEKEND SYSTEM IN
DUE TO BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AND SPREAD THAT WILL NEED TO BE RESOLVED AT SHORTER
RANGES. THE 12Z CONSENSUS MODEL DATA INDICATES THE HIGHEST POPS ON
DAY 7/SUN.

 

 

[NortheastPAWx]

RGEM http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_02_2014/post-747-0-40737600-1391475392.gif

Really wish these maps had county overlays...

[sauss06]

Anyone see EPA weather's map? Has Harrisburg 6-10 for Wednesday.

[Wmsptwx]

RGEM comes in solid again.

[dcfox1]

I have been on this board for a while but still don't know what the difference between a red tagger and a yellow tagger met means.?

[Wmsptwx]

Red Tag= Meteorologist

Yellow/orange= prof. forecaster I think.

[wxmeddler]

I have been on this board for a while but still don't know what the difference between a red tagger and a yellow tagger met means.?

 

Meteorologist (red) tag:

A BS, MS, or PhD degree in meteorology or atmospheric science

Pro Forecaster (orange) tag:

Does not fit above criteria, but is employed as a weather forecaster at a reputable company or government agency.

 

[Fozz]

Just got back to MU from the tropics (i.e. Maryland) where we didn't get much, and while I was bummed to miss it, I've gotta say, it was probably my best drive north since my mini snow chase to York on 10/29/2011. So much beautiful scenery.

[canderson]

Anyone see EPA weather's map? Has Harrisburg 6-10 for Wednesday.

If they have that, our facebook friends must have us at 24-32".

[CarlislePaWx]

RGEM http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_02_2014/post-747-0-40737600-1391475392.gif

Really wish these maps had county overlays...

 

I think you are looking between 15mm and 20mm of liquid eqv which equals around 0.6" to 0.8"...so 6" to 8" of snow.

[Eskimo Joe]

I have been on this board for a while but still don't know what the difference between a red tagger and a yellow tagger met means.?

Red Tags are individuals with at least a Bachelor of Science in Meteorology.  They are true meteorologists.  Yellow Tags, such as myself, are considered paid forecasters with no formal degree in Meteorology.

[dcfox1]

Ok thanks guys

[psuhoffman]

Sref trended south again. Perhaps we can get more sleet/snow and less ice into some places.

[NortheastPAWx]

Sref is still juicy with a large 1.00 area in the mean.

[anotherman]

Any way to get rid of the 5 post limit?  Very annoying.

[psuhoffman]

Sref is still juicy with a large 1.00 area in the mean.

yea It trended a bit colder but not really dryer.

[Fozz]

Any way to get rid of the 5 post limit?  Very annoying.

 

try being a better poster and post useful things.... all I can say.

[Atomixwx]

If they have that, our facebook friends must have us at 24-32'.

 

FIFY

[Atomixwx]

try being a better poster and post useful things.... all I can say.

 

Don't new accounts have to go through a probationary period?

[anotherman]

try being a better poster and post useful things.... all I can say.

Ha ha ha, ok.

[Wmsptwx]

SREFs still mega juiced hope NAM follows!

[Atomixwx]

Anybody follow "East Coast Weather" on fb? They just posted the following...

 

 

WINTER STORM ANALYSIS/MAP FOR TUE NIGHT INTO WED:
Hopefully most of you had a chance to clear off todays back breaking snow from your walks and driveways. Less than 28 hours later we will be underway with our next storm. As we did before, we are going with a zone map once again because it is not going to be a cut and dry storm with just snow. That's too easy right. So refer to the map and find your town and read on:

Precip will move in from southwest to northeast. Temps in the mid to upper 20s at the start. Precip will end Wednesday from southwest to northeast late afternoon and early evening.

Zone A: Snow arrives midnight to 3am. All snow here and heavy. Ends late Wed Afternoon. Accumulations: 10"+

Zone B: Snow arrives between 10 and 2am west to east. Snow heavy at times possibly mixing with sleet and maybe end as freezing rain Wed. Accumulations: 7 - 10"

Zone C: Snow arrives between 9 and 12pm west to east. Snow will change to sleet early Wed Morning and then Freezing rain before ending in northern sections. Sleet will change to freezing rain and then rain before ending (southern sections). Snow Accumulations: 4 - 8" (highest amount northern sections) Ice Accumulation: 0.25" - 0.50" (combined freezing rain and sleet)

Zone D: Snow arrives between 7pm and 10pm west to east. Snow changes to sleet and freezing rain by early morning hours Wed and then to rain by mid morning. Freezing rain will continue longer in Maryland north of Baltimore where severe icing is possible. Snow accumulations: 2 - 4" Ice and sleet accumulations 0.25 to 0.50".

Zone E: Snow will arrive late tomorrow night 7 - 10pm from west to east. Goes over quickly to rain after some sleet and freezing rain. Heavy rain for the remainder of the storm. C - 1"

Confusing?? I am. Might be from all the shoveling and no food.

<Ken>

[I-83 BLIZZARD]

LWX EXPANDS SOUTH

 

Winter Storm Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC841 PM EST MON FEB 3 2014MDZ007-009>011-VAZ027-029>031-040-042-501-040945-/O.EXA.KLWX.WS.A.0003.140205T0000Z-140205T1800Z/HARFORD-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-SHENANDOAH-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-RAPPAHANNOCK-LOUDOUN-NORTHERN FAUQUIER-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA...BALTIMORE...FRONT ROYAL...WASHINGTON...LEESBURG...WARRENTON841 PM EST MON FEB 3 2014...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGHWEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HASISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAYEVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN* ACCUMULATIONS...A COATING TO ONE INCH OF SLEET ACCUMULATION.  POTENTIAL FOR A QUARTER INCH OR MORE OF ICE ACCUMULATION FROM  FREEZING RAIN.* TIMING...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL BEGIN TUESDAY EVENING.  PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL FREEZING RAIN LATE TUESDAY  NIGHT AND IT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.  PRECIPITATION WILL END WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.* TEMPERATURES...UPPER 20S TUESDAY EVENING RISING INTO THE LOWER  AND MIDDLE 30S LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.  TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.* WINDS...NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH.* IMPACTS...UNTREATED ROADS AND SIDEWALKS WILL BECOME SLIPPERY  FROM ICE. TRAVEL MAY BE DANGEROUS DURING THIS TIME.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANTICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THELATEST FORECASTS.

[Jmister]

21z SREFs 12 hour snowfall probability (7pm Tues - 7am Wed):

 

[Mallow]

00z NAM is a touch colder and a bit wetter.

 

EDIT: Not really colder actually, overall. But not warmer either.