Cashtown_Coop Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 top of south mountain down to 21.8 i'm 23.4 / 20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 FYI, this is an excellent tool used in forecasting ice storm impacts. It is known as the Sperry-Piltz Index. http://www.spia-index.com/SPIAIndexDescription.png EDIT: Link to the index graphic... http://www.spia-index.com/neIce.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Have a feeling we see very little snow out of this here in lsv and go sleet to freezing rain. Temp steady at 26. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 IAD & PIT soundings are useful for all of central PA. IAD helps Adams, York, Lancaster, Lebanon counties. The 00z KPIT sounding is definitely colder in the 700mb-850mb layer than the NAM forecast. Even the wet-bulb temperature is lower than forecast. The GFS wet-bulb in that layer is also too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Have a feeling we see very little snow out of this here in lsv and go sleet to freezing rain. Temp steady at 26. I am thinking about 10/15 minutes of snow then right to sleet. But I have not seen the soundings so only guessing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 IAD & PIT soundings are useful for all of central PA. IAD helps Adams, York, Lancaster, Lebanon counties. Science FTW: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 The 00z KPIT sounding is definitely colder in the 700mb-850mb layer than the NAM forecast. Even the wet-bulb temperature is lower than forecast. The GFS wet-bulb in that layer is also too warm. Only seen the IAD sounding. Not the KPIT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 This will come in handy. http://outages.firstenergycorp.com/pa.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Only seen the IAD sounding. Not the KPIT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Science FTW: Nice! That site is a great tool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Update for the guys. Heavy freezing rain near 30 in SW KY earlier... .50" reported with widespread power outages. So the heavy freezing rain and warm temps thing is thrown out the door. lol. Here is Paducah, KY where .50" has been reported. http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KPAH.html they also reported less than .10" an hour for all but 1 hour so far... that is how you get the good ice with low rates like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Don't forget your mPING app folks, it helps us and DOT to know what's going on. EDIT: JT with the smack down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 Getting bad to our west. Up to .75" ZR already and power outages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Science FTW: To be fair, KIAD isn't THAT far east of the ~850mb trajectory, and it's definitely the closest to "upstream" for SE PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 they also reported less than .10" an hour for all but 1 hour so far... that is how you get the good ice with low rates like that Getting bad to our west. Up to .75" ZR already and power outages. No digging these reports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 HRRR is now all freezing rain for southern tier except 1-2 hrs of sleet. .75-1" qpf and temps in the mid 20's till they rise to 31 but not till the storm is ending. Might be a rough ride tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mupawxnut Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 HRRR is now all freezing rain for southern tier except 1-2 hrs of sleet. .75-1" qpf and temps in the mid 20's till they rise to 31 but not till the storm is ending. Might be a rough ride tonight. So do you see 100% of Lancaster County losing power? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 So do you see 100% of Lancaster County losing power? Lol, what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 HRRR is now all freezing rain for southern tier except 1-2 hrs of sleet. .75-1" qpf and temps in the mid 20's till they rise to 31 but not till the storm is ending. Might be a rough ride tonight. Ugh, bad run for UNV. Area of much lighter snows and an early changeover it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 How much for Lancaster? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 So do you see 100% of Lancaster County losing power? How would he or anyone for that matter be able to tell that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 EPAWA still calling 3-6 inches of snow for my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mupawxnut Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Lol, what?Seriously. Mid Atlantic Weather, Storms, and Anomalies first raised this possibility a couple days ago wh he said he would not be surprised if there wasn't a "single tree left standing or person with power." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Nice! That site is a great tool.Woah, that's awesome. What a great tool. I'm going to look that up for my weather bookmarks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 NAM is bad, bad, bad for my area. So much ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Seriously. Mid Atlantic Weather, Storms, and Anomalies first raised this possibility a couple days ago wh he said he would not be surprised if there wasn't a "single tree left standing or person with power." That's a bit sensationalist. It will be ugly tomorrow morning, with power outages in areas. But a total Lancaster County (or anywhere for that matter) tree-collapser - this storm is not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonfish490 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I am no where near as knowledgeable as many of the other guys on this forum, but I believe rainfall rates may be too high for the ice to really accumulate dangerously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 This run of the HRRR gives NYC more snow than UNV. If that happens, I quit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mupawxnut Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 That's a bit sensationalist. It will be ugly tomorrow morning, with power outages in areas. But a total Lancaster County (or anywhere for that matter) tree-collapser - this storm is not.It doesn't help that a certain poster on this forum (from Franklin County) is reading the QPF output verbatim as the total ice accretion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Seriously. Mid Atlantic Weather, Storms, and Anomalies first raised this possibility a couple days ago wh he said he would not be surprised if there wasn't a "single tree left standing or person with power." This is going to make the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima look like a firecracker. Trees will be forced into the earth. Houses vaporized. Nuclear winter will look like late spring compared to this. Say your goodbyes while you can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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