Central PA and The Fringes - February 2014

[Big Jims Videos]

The only thing the 422-322 corridor has been good for

This year is ice. Still interested to see more

On the midweek system. Agree, MDT should likely get some advisory snows Monday, jackpot likely Lancaster county ephrata to Lancaster to gap roughly?

[Yorkpa25]

I see 6 inches easily here in York, as long as the north trend comes to a stop. Another 50 miles of trending nothing more would be wonderful. Cool being in the sweet spot with the storms this year.

[EasternUSWX]

Go read the OT thread...not just snow maps.

They tell the weenies what they want to hear so they keep getting posted.

 

Only looks like they talk about snowfall maps to me. Maybe wind chill, but the maps are pretty good I think. I love the 2M temp ones cause I can always see in close. 

[I-83 BLIZZARD]

I think here in SE York County in elevation we will get plastered based on guidance today.  I am cheering for Baltimore to get plastered because if they are more wet work won't cancel, which would be a nightmare to attempt to drive in this mess. 

[Wmsptwx]

GFS kinda looks the same

[JamieOber]

The biggest gfs run of the year coming. Until 18z.

[EasternUSWX]

RGEM/GGEM been pretty rock solid this winter and been consistent with this Monday event. Going to ride that model. 

[I-83 BLIZZARD]

GFS kinda looks the same

Bit of a north trend with precip.  Very wet and tasty (pasty) looking

[I-83 BLIZZARD]

RGEM/GGEM been pretty rock solid this winter and been consistent with this Monday event. Going to ride that model. 

seems like a solid 6-10 inch plaster bomb down our way.

[Wmsptwx]

GFS same as 06z.

[sauss06]

And to think i wrote off monday

[Wmsptwx]

Tues Wed is looking worse and worse. Looks like we are caught below freezing until precip. moves out.

[Jmister]

Just a devastating ice event for Central PA on the 12z GFS. The period from 1am to 7am Wed morning has over 1" of precip for a large area with temps only approaching freezing by daybreak. 

 

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Imageanis.php

 

Of course if temps are 31-32 that would mean much of the heavy rain runs off instead of freezes...

[NortheastPAWx]

Just a devastating ice event for Central PA on the 12z GFS. The period from 1am to 7am Wed morning has over 1" of precip for a large area with temps only approaching freezing by daybreak. 

 

Screen Shot 2014-02-01 at 11.19.22 AM.png

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Imageanis.php

 

Of course if temps are 31-32 that would mean much of the heavy rain runs off instead of freezes...

And that will depend where temps wind up when the ZR starts...

[NortheastPAWx]

Oh yeah, another thing that is annoying me about the 2/3 storm...it's sucking discussion away from the 2/4-5, which could have a more severe impact...

[Yorkpa25]

2/3 is the first storm, it should be getting the attention. Sorry it's not as good for your backyard.

[Mallow]

I'm still not sold on big ice, at least up this way. I think the GFS is still getting rid of the cold at 850mb too fast. I like the 00z Euro solution better, which holds onto the cold longer and has not much precip left after 850s finally pop above 0°C.

 

And I still am not convinced Monday isn't coming further north.

 

So I have no problem discussing both storms.

[NortheastPAWx]

I'm still not sold on big ice, at least up this way. I think the GFS is still getting rid of the cold at 850mb too fast. I like the 00z Euro solution better, which holds onto the cold longer and has not much precip left after 850s finally pop above 0°C.

 

And I still am not convinced Monday isn't coming further north.

 

So I have no problem discussing both storms.

GGEM I believe also favors an ECM-style solution for 2/4-5, quicker transfer.

[Yorkpa25]

seems like a solid 6-10 inch plaster bomb down our way.

I was thinking 6 was a definite possibility but after seeing the 12Z runs minus the Euro I now think 3-6 is a better call. 6-10 might be a bit premature, we would need another small jog north. Definitely don't want it to come more then 50 miles North. These storms tend to happen further north then originally modeled to begin with. Hope is there for another LSV special.

[EasternUSWX]

First call.

 

[Jmister]

I'm still not sold on big ice, at least up this way. I think the GFS is still getting rid of the cold at 850mb too fast. I like the 00z Euro solution better, which holds onto the cold longer and has not much precip left after 850s finally pop above 0°C.

 

And I still am not convinced Monday isn't coming further north.

 

So I have no problem discussing both storms.

 

That leads me to think that the third possibility is also entirely possible...lots o sleet.

 

We really need to see what is going on above 850mb to get the whole picture. 

 

Looking at the TwisterData Skew-Ts, the gridpoint to the SW of State College (around Huntington) is borderline snow/sleet at 90 hr, while the point nearest to Lock Haven is squarely snow. By 96, both locations are way above freezing at 700-900mb but near freezing at the surface.

 

Precip type will be a close call for many areas and it may not be settled until the event is underway.

[EasternUSWX]

Not sure why the GFS is so warm, but CMC is even colder this run.

 

[NortheastPAWx]

Well, we shall see what the ECM says in about an hour. Hope someone can post details.

[JamieOber]

Good first map, Eastern. Looks reasonable.

[EasternUSWX]

CMC never goes above freezing and is a lot of sleet and ice this run, except State College north where more snow is modeled. 

[Caveman]

Wxbell should focus more on making their maps more realistic. They're plain awful. But they tell some what they want to hear.

With all due respect, I believe the WxBell maps are done quite well! One has to understand that their maps are simply an algorithm based on whatever the final output request might be. In terms of the snow maps, I believe this is done by accumulating EVERY flake of snow and most are quite aware this is not the case in the real world. One of their snowfall maps actually includes surface melting along with the accumulation (I believe the 12Km NAM). But for all of the critical remarks concerning the WxBell maps, personally I feel they are drawn very well and are one of the best available today. I also really utilize the College of DuPage, too.

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/

[NortheastPAWx]

CMC never goes above freezing and is a lot of sleet and ice this run, except State College north where more snow is modeled. 

Yeah, UNV might be a good 80+% snow verbatim...

[Yorkpa25]

Anybody think the snow will hold off until after 7am Monday morning. What time would it start roughly?

[EasternUSWX]

Yeah, UNV might be a good 80+% snow verbatim...

 

The differences between the GFS and GGEM are stunning. GFS has me mostly above 32. GGEM has 32 below Baltimore for basically all of the storm. 

[NortheastPAWx]

12z GFS for UNV:

 

140205/0300Z  87  11010KT  18.0F  SNOW   13:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.028   13:1|  0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03  100|  0|  0140205/0600Z  90  10011KT  16.8F  SNOW    7:1| 2.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.375    7:1|  2.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.40  100|  0|  0140205/0900Z  93  09010KT  16.8F  SNOW   10:1| 8.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.853    9:1| 11.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.26  100|  0|  0140205/1200Z  96  13007KT  25.6F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.51|| 0.489    9:1| 11.3|| 0.00|| 0.51|| 1.74    0|  0|100----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---140205/1500Z  99  19005KT  26.9F  SNPL    7:1| 0.2|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 0.025    9:1| 11.5|| 0.03|| 0.51|| 1.77   36| 64|  0140205/1800Z 102  26011KT  35.1F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009    9:1| 11.5|| 0.03|| 0.51|| 1.78   56|  0| 44