Wmsptwx Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Dang a 7 minute ride from 4 to 6 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I thought you want the low south of you, otherwise the door is open to warm air to flood in. It's not a hard and fast rule, merely a quick method for helping determine precip type. There have been many instances of where the center of the 850 mb low is below freezing, such as in the image Mallow posted above. It is always better to look at a forecast sounding when available. The 00z GFS does show a layer from about 850 to 800 mb where the temperature is around 1C at hr 60. It still looks like at least 50% of the precip falls as snow for UNV, before this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Great post heavywx. UNV is looking at 2 to 4 of snow then sleet on Wed as of now. Probably same for IPT and Clearfield or close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Great post heavywx. UNV is looking at 2 to 4 of snow then sleet on Wed as of now. Probably same for IPT and Clearfield or close. He's not saying 2-4, he's saying at least 50% is snow. Which would be more than 2-4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Just going to put this out there. Radar looks effin good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Depends I would say 4 to 5 inches if we take .9 to 1 inch as a reasonable total qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 first of hopefully many mesoscale discussions this week is up... http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2014/md0058.html CTP seems to be waiting on GEFS to decide on expanding warnings northward or not in their latest discussion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 https://mobile.twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/430194831625682944/photo/1/large?screen_name=BigJoeBastardi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Just going to put this out there. Radar looks effin good. this is pretty to look at too... http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_US/recentir.html http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_US/recentwv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Here we go! SUMMARY...LARGE SHIELD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD FROMKY/NRN TN NORTHEAST INTO WV...WRN MD...AND SWRN PA...WITH SOMEINCREASE IN PRECIPITATION RATES POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. SNOW WILL BETHE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE ACROSS THE NRN PART OF THE MCD AREA WITHRATES OF 1-2 IN/HR BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY AFTER 06Z. A NARROWZONE OF HEAVY ICING WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM NRN TN INTO SRN KY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 It's 50 in Harrisburg? Can that be right, seems out of place. 37.7 here and drizzle currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 It's 50 in Harrisburg? Can that be right, seems out of place. 37.7 here and drizzle currently.Not even close to 50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 It's 50 in Harrisburg? Can that be right, seems out of place. 37.7 here and drizzle currently. something is wrong with the capital city sensor and is overlaying on MDT on several sites... all surrounding sites are 40 and below right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 GFS near blizzard for weekend. Man keep it coming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I was going to say, seemed crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 He's not saying 2-4, he's saying at least 50% is snow. Which would be more than 2-4. Yeah, looks like the GFS has about 0.5-0.6" of precip in the previous 12 hours at 09z Wednesday (hr 57). That would likely be all snow based on the 850-750 mb temperatures below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Let the north trend begin. lol. I can't believe we may have 3 threats in a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Yeah, looks like the GFS has about 0.5-0.6" of precip in the previous 12 hours at 09z Wednesday (hr 57). That would likely be all snow based on the 850-750 mb temperatures below freezing. So then it comes down to a matter of ratios... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 OT but you guys missed probably one of the craziest things to ever happen at Americanwx for the last 10 min in the Mid Atlantic subforum. Attacked by a few with tons of porn pictures and stuff. All taken care of and IP bans given out. Never a dull moment. Back to the storm, looking good for Northern MD and southern Pa. I see a mesoscale discussion was posted. Can't wait to see one for tomorrow. Radar down south looks awesome and the 700 moisture transport is feeding the beast up into Mid Atlantic. Someone will get hammered tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Very light snow on 81 from Pittston to hometown as we head south back to Hershey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 So then it comes down to a matter of ratios... that post made me think of the line in this... I know I should be in bed but im curious to see what GEFS has and CTP's response... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 OT but you guys missed probably one of the craziest things to ever happen at Americanwx for the last 10 min in the Mid Atlantic subforum. Attacked by a few with tons of porn pictures and stuff. All taken care of and IP bans given out. Never a dull moment. Back to the storm, looking good for Northern MD and southern Pa. I see a mesoscale discussion was posted. Can't wait to see one for tomorrow. Radar down south looks awesome and the 700 moisture transport is feeding the beast up into Mid Atlantic. Someone will get hammered tomorrow Oh damn....sorry I missed that, lol As for ice threat WED srefs keep going up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 This thing is so juiced up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Very light snow on 81 from Pittston to hometown as we head south back to Hershey. i thought it was snowing, this will be a fun week. I am stuck at home and there are three stormsstorms to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonfish490 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Have to get up for work at 6 but I'm too excited. Have a drizzle here currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 For the weekend storm, give it a N trend and we're in business! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 GEFS doesnt look to be much different from op GFS... have to imagine warnings and advisories expand north soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 37 here in midtown hbg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 GEFS doesnt look to be much different from op GFS... have to imagine warnings and advisories expand north soonGefs slightly north of op actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Light snow now increasing mile marker 112. (Friend is driving btw:) ) Plain rain at the Loves near Lebanon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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