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Central PA and The Fringes - February 2014


PennMan

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If I'm seeing things right, the 12z NAM is a bit north and quite moist...

btw, just to try to be objective and give hope, the 0z euro ensembles were a little more bullish in our area then the op run.  OP run would imply 2-4" across our country north to south, ensembles more like 3-6.  The SREF did tick north just a bit, although most of that was with the main band, the northern fringe is still dangerously close to our area.  The NAM of course came way north, and now the RGEM held at 12z with a very north solution...DC area is probably not happy with it right now, even starts southern PA as rain tonight. 

 

In the longer term, I have NEVER seen the euro ensembles more bullish on our area  for a 10 day period.  The ensemble mean snowfall for MUIR AAF in Indiantown (closest site I can use) is 18".  Not a single run is below 10" for the 10 day period.  If we don't cash in on this we are really in a snow hole. 

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I'm getting concerned for a catastrophic xt event Wed clustered in the valey around MDT. Monday loos like our "usual for the Samson" 2-4" event.

12z GFS pushes just over .5" QPF into Harrisburg Monday now... with both GFS and NAM slowly coming to the other models 4-6" could very well be likely

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GFS shows Wed. storm going south  much colder. Almost hoping trend stops before we lose precip.

GFS has IPT at about 1.1" QPF frozen at least at 850 and surface for Wednesday... I wouldnt worry about losing precip right now that system will not go far enough south for you to not see precip

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5 - 9 inches of wet snow likely Monday....mostly falling between 4am - 4pm. The Wednesday storm looks more wet than white.

 

I love listening to Eric's forecasts. I have the privelage to sit in on his morning/afternoon discussions at Millersville at least twice a week. He knows his stuff. I agree with his forecast of 5-9". I;m going 4-8" up here myself

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Lol...Mallow it will not snow up this far. You guys have a shot at good snow, and I think it's an all or nothing kind of deal. If you get in the snow you will do well, and a few miles north nothing.

 

The gradient will be tight, but I don't think it'll be down to a few miles. I'm thinking it ramps from nothing to 3 inches over about 20 miles or so, and have a feeling I'll be right in that gradient.

 

I agree that it's looking unlikely for you, but either way it's going to be sad to be missing out on all the snow they'll be getting to the south. Still, Wednesday will likely make up for it up here. :P

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Last nights Euro had PIT with 0.34" as snow and 0.32" as a mix with temps staying below freezing through the event. The quicker transfer does take a bit of precip away from western PA. I expect that pretty much all of the western PA and central PA gang will see a minimum of a few inches of front end snow with whoever ending up as all snow TBD. The trends have been good though with the low tracking/transferring underneath PA so Pittsburgh itself will likely be finding itself alot closer to that all snow line than what it had been looking like. 

Thanks Mag. Lower qpf amounts are a tradeoff we are more than happy to take here. The higher qpf totals were 80% plain rain so  ~.65 of some sort of frozen beats 1.25 of rain any day.

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Why do these cut offs have to be so dang sharp!! I'd love to just have something to cover the ground tomorrow.

because it is a wave riding along a decaying frontal boundary... you need us to the south to see snowfall tomorrow to help keep you nearly all snow Wednesday by locking in cold further south

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Is it just me, or is the precip shield pretty significantly further north than the 12z NAM had it forecast right now in OK/AR/MO?

rad4.gif

2014020216_metars_lit.gif

Let's hope not, already north enough. The north trend hopefully has come to an end.
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I should clarify--when I say "pretty significantly", I mean something like 10-20 miles, which is significant for us up here on the fringes. SC and SE PA probably wouldn't see any major changes.

The precip shield looks a little further north, but I was stating the actual track can stay where it is. But for you guys I hope the northern cutoff is not to sharp.

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