NortheastPAWx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I can't say I'm thrilled with the developments on the Wednesday storm. While we're trending toward an all-snow event, precip amounts are fading fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Not bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 09z SREFs bring the 1" line up just south of the M-D Line (near Westminster), while the 03z run had the 1" mean down through D.C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I wonder how much are the models going to change after Mondays system goes thru? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Not that I put any stock in the DGEX but I do find it interesting that the evolution of next weekends storm closely matches the 06Z GFS. Shows a primary into the Ohio valley with a secondary forming on the NC coast. It does close the 500's though and bring a bowling ball through where as the GFS keeps it open. As usual though it is probably way over done with QPF with wide spread 1.5" with a 2+ inch strip bordering the MD/PA line. If it wasn't for the somewhat questionable 1000-500 mb heights for the southern sections of PA this would imply a huge snowstorm for the whole of PA with both the surface and 850's cooperating. Of course it is the DGEX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I can't say I'm thrilled with the developments on the Wednesday storm. While we're trending toward an all-snow event, precip amounts are fading fast. This is why I need to remember to look at the models first, then look here. This is not "precip amounts fading fast". Breath, man. Breeeaaaattttthhhh. WED 06Z 05-FEB -5.3 -3.2 1020 96 99 0.34 558 543 WED 12Z 05-FEB -4.6 -0.1 1011 98 97 0.68 553 544 WED 18Z 05-FEB -2.8 -6.1 1011 91 85 0.08 543 534 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I'm definitely more concerned now for Wednesday's event than I was previously. I think once you get into some higher elevations out west and north (of Harrisburg), you're looking at less ZR and more IP/SN...it's the valleys along the Susquehanna, that are at risk for significant icing should this trend continue... I completely agree. I mentioned Wed very briefly for the LSV and that spot will be very tricky. I think ZR is a distinct possibility especially with a fresh snow about to fall for tomorrow. The drilling wedge of cold air might get enhanced by a few degrees due to a refrigerator type effect. Hopefully it's enough for IP instead of full on ZR, but we shall see. Still have to see what Monday does because that looks like a good 4-8" of snow itself for southern tier counties Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 .7-.8" for southern tier. .9" on MD line. UNV about .2-.3" Zach, if you get a chance, would you mind including kpit in your future analysis of the Euro ouput? Condsidering we are heading into an active period (Monday, Wednesday and next weekend) and trends are favoring more frozen for us now I'm sure all of us SWPA lurkers in the C-PA thread would appreciate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 12z NAM is definitely more amped with tomorrow's event. Geez. Temps are virtually the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 How is it possible that I just have a winter weather advisory? I'm about 10 miles from the M/D line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Omg that fookin cutoff!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 If I'm seeing things right, the 12z NAM is a bit north and quite moist... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonfish490 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 My question is why doesn't CTP have watched up for the southern counties? I've been pretty pleased with their forecasts so far this winter, but this one has me perplexed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
happy pappy Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 My question is why doesn't CTP have watched up for the southern counties? I've been pretty pleased with their forecasts so far this winter, but this one has me perplexed.they always seem to play catch up compared to the surrounding NWS offices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 My question is why doesn't CTP have watched up for the southern counties? I've been pretty pleased with their forecasts so far this winter, but this one has me perplexed. They always do this and seemingly ignore our local climo. I think they will just upgrade to a Warning. No way around it. They will wait for the GFS I'm sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 This is why I need to remember to look at the models first, then look here. This is not "precip amounts fading fast". Breath, man. Breeeaaaattttthhhh. WED 06Z 05-FEB -5.3 -3.2 1020 96 99 0.34 558 543 WED 12Z 05-FEB -4.6 -0.1 1011 98 97 0.68 553 544 WED 18Z 05-FEB -2.8 -6.1 1011 91 85 0.08 543 534 I think it's more of precip amounts becoming more realistic than fading in any way. While this system is going to be moisture laden the GFS especially has seemed a tad excessive to me with it's QPF. The 6z GFS has over 1.25" of QPF along the southern tier with 0.75-1" everywhere else while the 0z Euro is more of a general .75 to 1" for everyone. This quicker transfer and farther southeast track that has been progged has def reduced amounts some in NW PA, but central PA will be fine. Not worried about the QPF part of the equation. I like the general .75"-1.00" the Euro has given the more progressive trends of this storm. I mean the 6z GFS straight up tracked the low underneath PA. It's going to be interesting to see how much of our area can manage all or mostly snow from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Zach, if you get a chance, would you mind including kpit in your future analysis of the Euro ouput? Condsidering we are heading into an active period (Monday, Wednesday and next weekend) and trends are favoring more frozen for us now I'm sure all of us SWPA lurkers in the C-PA thread would appreciate it. Last nights Euro had PIT with 0.34" as snow and 0.32" as a mix with temps staying below freezing through the event. The quicker transfer does take a bit of precip away from western PA. I expect that pretty much all of the western PA and central PA gang will see a minimum of a few inches of front end snow with whoever ending up as all snow TBD. The trends have been good though with the low tracking/transferring underneath PA so Pittsburgh itself will likely be finding itself alot closer to that all snow line than what it had been looking like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 They always do this and seemingly ignore our local climo. I think they will just upgrade to a Warning. No way around it. They will wait for the GFS I'm sure. Which is silly, they GFS has been the driest of them all. If they were smart, they'd wait until the euro to see if it continues the wetter trend before issuing warnings. But I agree, counties along the boarder should be under a warning for this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Which is silly, they GFS has been the driest of them all. If they were smart, they'd wait until the euro to see if it continues the wetter trend before issuing warnings. But I agree, counties along the boarder should be under a warning for thisSoutheastern counties are often forgotten by CTP in these type of events. True central PA is not in our climo so it is to be expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Last nights Euro had PIT with 0.34" as snow and 0.32" as a mix with temps staying below freezing through the event. The quicker transfer does take a bit of precip away from western PA. I expect that pretty much all of the western PA and central PA gang will see a minimum of a few inches of front end snow with whoever ending up as all snow TBD. The trends have been good though with the low tracking/transferring underneath PA so Pittsburgh itself will likely be finding itself alot closer to that all snow line than what it had been looking like. How would all this equate for the eastern counties (Schuylkill)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 If I'm seeing things right, the 12z NAM is a bit north and quite moist... It's quite a bit north, wow. Has .27 up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 My question is why doesn't CTP have watched up for the southern counties? I've been pretty pleased with their forecasts so far this winter, but this one has me perplexed. 09 SREFs are starting to have a pretty nice clustering around the mean for places like AOO, MDT, LNS, and THV. AOO has a mean of a tad over 4", MDT over 5", LNS almost 6" and THV over 7". With the operational NAM finally looking about on par with the Euro/Canadian guidance I think their advisory placement is good but I would say watches (or warnings at this point in the game) could be warranted for at least Franklin, Adams, York, and Lancaster. Also, not sure if they only consulted the NAM this morning or what with regards to the Wednesday storm but they're talking flooding threats in the south in their AFD this morning and "periods of rain or freezing rain" in their grids all the way up to State College. Should mention that those periods of rain or freezing rain coincide with a low of 27. I hate point and clicks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 From CTP's discussion: SO RIGHT NOW WE ARE LEANING TOWARD A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL INTHE 3-6 INCH RANGE. IF THE CHANGE TO SNOW CAN OCCUR EARLIER THANANTICIPATED...SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD BE SEEN. My guess is they are making changes now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 From CTP's discussion: My guess is they are making changes now. Sounds like it. I have a friend leaving from Northwest Virginia heading to North Jersey Monday morning what is the timing on this event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Up to 1.18 QPF is a solid foot at 10:1. Knock it back and still an easy double digit total if this verifies. 8-10inches for the rt 30 corridor, with loli of 12 somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 If I'm seeing things right, the 12z NAM is a bit north and quite moist... You are seeing it correct, and implies we might get into the 3-6" zone, but don't get sucked in until the full suite of 12z guidance confirms. The NAM sometimes does really screwy stuff, and we have seen this game before. If the rest of the guidance shifts dramatically north then we might be in the game. Even then I might expect to get fringed and then be pleasantly surprised if we do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 and 12z GFS is north of 0z with precip for 12z tomorrow... going to be a nightmare morning commute Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I agree psu. It seems like there is always a run or two that does this, and then the end result is pretty much what had been advertised prior to the "weenie run" in the first place. I shall, like you, take the wait and see approach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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