EasternUSWX Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Anyone seen the ukmet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Anyone seen the ukmet? I have. But, precip maps not out yet. Low placement similar to RGEM though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 This is just funny. Link is broken Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Link is broken I keep forgetting lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I always first -Euro's art 1 right? I don't think I can make it that late ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I always first -Euro's art 1 right? I don't think I can make it that late ... Monday system should be out on it by about 1250-1am ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Monday system should be out on it by about 1250-1am ya.I'll wait fir the morning to see the aftermath ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Anyone seen the ukmet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Euro is a massive slam for MD line. .5" on one frame. Good up to UNV as well. A little tighter gradient but heavier moved NW a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 .7-.8" for southern tier. .9" on MD line. UNV about .2-.3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 .7-.8" for southern tier. .9" on MD line. UNV about .2-.3" With any hope, we can make up the difference on Wednesday. Still, can't get too upset with a 1-3" event to get it started, after a miss seemed likely... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Wed storm 850 up to UNV, surface down to DC. .5"+ qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Ya I don't agree at all. Newest nam on GGEM/euro train now. ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 3 PM ESTMONDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A WINTERWEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 3 PMEST MONDAY.* LOCATIONS...SOUTH-CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA* HAZARD TYPES...RAIN-SNOW MIX CHANGING TO ALL SNOW.* ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW.* TIMING...OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.* IMPACTS...POOR TRAVEL CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE MORNINGCOMMUTE.* WINDS...NORTH AROUND 5 MPH.* TEMPERATURES...AROUND 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 CTP going with 2-4". Philly has 4-8" and LWX has this for Hagerstown. 4-9" chance of rain before 1am, then rain and snow likely between 1am and 4am, then snow after 4am. Low around 31. North wind 7 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Snow, mainly before 1pm. High near 32. North wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Good match... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 06z GFS is also north of 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 GFS for wed is colder again and the low transfer is along the MD line. Mostly frozen for all of pa. Starting to get real interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Hello all. Living in Hanover Pa it is nice to see a forum that deals with the no mans land that south central PA seems to be on these boards. Been following this board through its many transitions since the 96 blizzard and basically gave up posting last year due to the immature/nasty nature of some on the Mid Atlantic Forum to those on the MD/PA border. So this is a welcome relief to find considering, at the least, the next week or 2 shows a lot of promise with a very active pattern. As far as this storm coming up tonight and tomorrow it is very encouraging to see the the Euro spitting out some fairly hefty numbers for precip more so then seeing the 06Z NAM ramp up, which will probably be showing purples by the 12 or 18Z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Hello all. Living in Hanover Pa it is nice to see a forum that deals with the no mans land that south central PA seems to be on these boards. Been following this board through its many transitions since the 96 blizzard and basically gave up posting last year due to the immature/nasty nature of some on the Mid Atlantic Forum to those on the MD/PA border. So this is a welcome relief to find considering, at the least, the next week or 2 shows a lot of promise with a very active pattern. As far as this storm coming up tonight and tomorrow it is very encouraging to see the the Euro spitting out some fairly hefty numbers for precip more so then seeing the 06Z NAM ramp up, which will probably be showing purples by the 12 or 18Z runs. Welcome back. Got to love those purples. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I'm definitely more concerned now for Wednesday's event than I was previously. I think once you get into some higher elevations out west and north (of Harrisburg), you're looking at less ZR and more IP/SN...it's the valleys along the Susquehanna, that are at risk for significant icing should this trend continue... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Welcome back. Got to love those purples. Thanks. Still follow the Mid Atlantic Forum to get some insight from some of the very knowledgeable mets that visit which is nice. I will be a for a moment and say that from my 45 years of experience living in the MD/PA area I have had a gut feeling for the last 2-3 weeks (Even when the models had gone to crap) that this February as well as March have the potential to be very memorable for those N and W of the 95 corridor (Think even the 95 corridor will potentially cash in on occasion as well). I like the fact that the SS is ramping up and we have had cold on our side of the globe to work with virtually most of the winter. Considering that most of the winter has featured a trough in the Eastern US is a plus as well. Seen hints of a -Nao on the models lately and would not be surprised that we actually see one in a week or 2 that has some staying power and is not just transitional (Think that will be dependent on how the Strato warming plays out on whether we get that blocking or not). Would be nice to have the -Nao versus depending on the position of the PV for any blocking. All in all I am looking forward to following the next 6+ weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Wed event trending south... Uhoh. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 North of hburg it's a good idea to focus on Wed as the northern cutoff on the Monday event will continue to sharpen as it gets closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 The 00z Euro has a potent 200 kt jet streak at 250 mb over southern Quebec for 05z Wednesday. This feature actually strengthens considerably from Tuesday into Wednesday as it moves poleward. The fact that the jet strengthens and has a magnitude 2-3 standard deviations above normal means that there will be an intense ageostropic circulation in the entrance region, with the lifting branch over parts of PA. There should be some intense snowfall rates for areas of PA that stay cold enough. The 06z GFS is still a bit farther north with some mixing with sleet suggested for UNV on the BUFKIT sounding. One thing to watch out for, especially for Central PA is the possibility of a local min in the frontogenesis fields at 850 and 700 mb as the low begins to redevelop offshore. There may be some enhanced banding potential in the comma head of the secondary low, however the models at this time are suggesting that this feature will be more into the southern tier of NY. In any case, the overall setup is pretty interesting for many in central PA. We'll have to see how the models converge towards the final track but it looks as if several inches is probable for these areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 North of hburg it's a good idea to focus on Wed as the northern cutoff on the Monday event will continue to sharpen as it gets closer. I'm not sure UNV and places north were really ever favored in this setup for more than an inch at most. It actually has pretty good upper-level support though with the right entrance region of a 160 kt jet streak in Southern PA and MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Wow looks interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonfish490 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Looking more interesting for a freezing rain event here for Wednesday. Hoping for all snow or plain rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcfox1 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Looking more interesting for a freezing rain event here for Wednesday. Hoping for all snow or plain rain. Amen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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