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Monday Mauler or Monday Bawler? part II


DDweatherman

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Gfs is not right. It did this last storm. Brought in most of the precip earlier than all other models. It as 1-6am as the heavier QPF

 

yes...It was bad on 1/21...you're still in a good spot...the gradient is going to be such that it is almost a see what happens situation...it was a different scenario but remember October 2011?...all the models were too cold,..esp the NAM..and they got the gradient wrong....I dont think anyone can say with confidence who will get 2" and who will get 6"

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I've already been doing that :(

 

Anyway...now it's our turn.......hey northern people, don't worry...you'll be fine.  It's just the GFS.

 

Fortunately for them there's not much time left but this thing has been drifting a bit all along which was one of my early worries.. we hit ground zero (with bad temps) too soon. But.. wouldn't be surprising to see S/C PA jackpot v n md/PA border if this type of solution is right.

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So will everyone who has thrown in the towel then say tomorrow that they never did?

I am too far south for snow. Period.

 

I will get all rain and I will learn to love it. I can't wait to watch the rain accumulate in the usual low places on my back lawn. Tomorrow I will take regular measurements of the rainfall accumulations. I'll try not to slant the ruler too much. I realize that I am being a bit of a debbie downer, but MBY has a substantial warm layer AGL AND a warm nose to deal with. I love snow but that spells R-A-I-N.

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ha...sounding looks better than the model output by quite a bit

Wait and see. Anyone who flips to snow near the cities between 6am and 9am will stay that way until rates back off. Nowcasting gets easy from then on. Before that is just waiting. If you don't flip by 9am or 10 latest it is what it is. Not sure what else can be gleaned from models at this point

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