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Monday Mauler or Monday Bawler? part II


DDweatherman

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at 48 hrs we're rain as the 850  temp is above freezing as is the surface.  By 54 hours we're 1C but the surface still is above freezing and the 850 temp still is above freezing at my house.  I don't like the odds for you and me.  Heck, I bet at 18Z DCA is still 34 or so despite the raw model output.

 

yes..i wonder what precip type for DC is at say 49-50 hours..Hard to beleve it is driving rain at that point..51 hours on GFS is snow and 48 on the NAM is snow...for DCA...maybe not your house.....

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I do think after reading people's interpretation of the euro that I'm living in an alternate world.  They see hope and i see well not quite dispair but don't like what I see for mby.

I'm definitely not too psyched IMBY.  I agree with you.. fall line area west/north might get a decent wet paste job.  Here... I dunno. It's gonna take some luck to get more than some slushy mess after rain and then hoping for a plastering during the day.

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Yeah. I'm not sure things will be resolved until the snow actually starts falling. You guys have danced this dance before and gotten burned more often than not. 

 

 

If it's heavy sure we can accumulate in that. How confident are we that it'll be ripping though? Given the bumps up in qpf I guess we can count on this a bit more than the temps at the moment. 

 

 

I refuse to let myself get emotionally invested in this one. There is so much potential here but so many conflicting pieces. We've been on the good side of things so far this winter so hey maybe we catch a break again. 

 

 

0.65" in 6 hours is ripping

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I'm definitely not too psyched IMBY.  I agree with you.. fall line area west/north might get a decent wet paste job.  Here... I dunno. It's gonna take some luck to get more than some slushy mess after rain and then hoping for a plastering during the day.

I do say in the quote that things won't be resolved until with see the white of the flakes and the temperatures while it is falling. 

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I do say in the quote that things won't be resolved until with see the white of the flakes and the temperatures while it is falling. 

I think we're in a better spot in some ways than we were just given we're close to the max zone in the cold sector but there is a lot to be resolved. Even in a best case it might be drippy globby snow falling in wet clumps out of the trees etc here. But I guess that's DC for ya.

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My usual optimism is tempered but you're right, the models haven't written us DC folk off yet. We're straddling the line but incremental trends keep DC in the game and look good for areas NW. This is fun.

If the raw temps were colder I'd be a little more enthused. They are too cold almost all the time and if that's the case here... well, congrats whoever lives on a hill north and west.

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I think we're in a better spot in some ways than we were just given we're close to the max zone in the cold sector but there is a lot to be resolved. Even in a best case it might be drippy globby snow falling in wet clumps out of the trees etc here. But I guess that's DC for ya.

 

DC does globby very well

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Can't yet decide if I'm in a good spot for this, last March when everyone downtown was crying Cenreville managed to squeeze a couple of inches.. I'm going to pretend I live at Dulles and hope that the 32 line sets up over DCA + count on some intense rates

I think you are in an ok spot same with me...for us it will be making sure 850s make it here...our surface will be better than DCA I think...I have been snow plenty of times when DCA was rain or mix...you too I bet

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That should be an impressive period. Maybe enough for another snow day  :santa:

 

This is about as close as it gets, at least since I moved here a few months ago. Great rates can overcome it, but I prefer to overestimate the power of the DC torch than underestimate it. 

 

if we shift north in the modeling it will make the heartbreak easier

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that warm nose around 800mb was on last night's Euro and I'm sure, with the thicknesses shown on the maps, is there again so looking at 850s and surface are not the complete story

on the good news side, it looks like the Euro didn't get warmer from last night's run so maybe the bleeding has stopped and we can get our luck to reverse back to cooler

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