Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    15,514
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Raifu
    Newest Member
    Raifu
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
POWERSTROKE

February Banter

Recommended Posts

The NAM gives me almost an inch of ice :lol:

That means you are going to get an inch of rain. The NAM was giving me 2 inches of ice almost a day before the event. Lol!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This was my forecast on Wednesday night. So far, we've had zero precipitation. Not complaining, since I hate cold rain and have been able to get some outside work done, but still...

 

Thursday Night A slight chance of rain after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 34. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Friday A chance of rain after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 47. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Friday Night A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 36. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Saturday Rain likely. Cloudy, with a high near 49. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Saturday Night Rain likely. Cloudy, with a low around 40. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Sunday Rain likely. Cloudy, with a high near 52. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Sunday Night A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 32. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

 

*Disclaimer - not the poster Cold Rain*

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

That means you are going to get an inch of rain. The NAM was giving me 2 inches of ice almost a day before the event. Lol!

Just looked at the Meteogram Generator and it starts as plain rain and ends with .20 in sleet, so it appears to be too warm at the moment  ;) 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

That means you are going to get an inch of rain. The NAM was giving me 2 inches of ice almost a day before the event. Lol!

 

Dude.  Look at a map.  You were the only one here who thought you were going to get an ice storm. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Dude. Look at a map. You were the only one here who thought you were going to get an ice storm.

Well I was going by what the models were showing. Yall are doing the same thing. So confident a snow and ice storm will happen Wednesday. Hell Brick is going to the store and getting prepared today.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well I was going by what the models were showing. Yall are doing the same thing. So confident a snow and ice storm will happen Wednesday. Hell Brick is going to the store and getting prepared today.

 

Wednesday?  Come on man I know you look at the models and Monday Night into Tuesday maybe even earlier is the time frame.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well I was going by what the models were showing. Yall are doing the same thing. So confident a snow and ice storm will happen Wednesday. Hell Brick is going to the store and getting prepared today.

Yes, and snow is not an uncommon thing here. Unlike Waycross...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Perhaps it would behoove everyone if after the major runs, a post could be added giving a quick note of what the run meant for general areas: ATL, CAE, RAH, KHRJ (now that's a real MBY!) etc. It would certainly cut down on both angst and the need for MBY concerns...especially as we get closer to what looks like a major storm mode situation.

 

Thanks!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well I was going by what the models were showing. Yall are doing the same thing. So confident a snow and ice storm will happen Wednesday. Hell Brick is going to the store and getting prepared today.

 You do realize that the verification scores get higher the closer you get to an event. At the time the models were showing a hit for you, it was too far out to be taken seriously. Now you can start to get a feel for what will actually happen. If the GFS gets onboard today, it will be lights out. The only thing left to resolve will be the thermal structure. As for the Brick comment..... folks should begin to prepare for this. It's never too early. Most folks have today and tomorrow off. What better time to get ready for a possible storm.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Wednesday? Come on man I know you look at the models and Monday Night into Tuesday maybe even earlier is the time frame.

I meant to say by Wednesday. Somewhere around that time frame. TWC says Wednesday.

WidreMann says Tuesday into Wednesday.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You do realize that the verification scores get higher the closer you get to an event. At the time the models were showing a hit for you, it was too far out to be taken seriously. Now you can start to get a feel for what will actually happen. If the GFS gets onboard today, it will be lights out. The only thing left to resolve will be the thermal structure. As for the Brick comment..... folks should begin to prepare for this. It's never too early. Most folks have today and tomorrow off. What better time to get ready for a possible storm.

The NAM, Euro HRRR, RAP, and others were showing a hit the day before and the Euro, RUC, RAP, and HRRR had a second round of precipitation that was supposed to be snow but ended up all rain with some sleet. Someone is always going to get screwed I'm events like these though. We had a winter storm warning extended 3 times because the models kept showing hits.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You're going by TWC? They're more concerned with their next storm chasers show and what idiotic name they'll give this storm!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You're going by TWC? They're more concerned with their next storm chasers show and what idiotic name they'll give this storm!

They are naming it Pax!! This thing is going to Pax a punch on CAD areas or wherever!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

They are naming it Pax!! This thing is going to Pax a punch on CAD areas or wherever!

That's ironic. In latin, pax means peace. Last thing i want to get hit by is winter storm "peace"

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yes, and snow is not an uncommon thing here. Unlike Waycross...

Yeah. Really is a terrible comparison, but look what happened in FL Panhandle. If they get a hurricane this year, they will have seen every weather there is.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

That's ironic. In latin, pax means peace. Last thing i want to get hit by is winter storm "peace"

It's going to create peace in the SE forum after the 3 year snow drought. Haha.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's going to create peace in the SE forum after the 3 year snow drought. Haha.

Seriously. I'm always up for more snow but if this thing panned out I'd be content with this winter. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

That's ironic. In latin, pax means peace. Last thing i want to get hit by is winter storm "peace"

 

They named it Pax because they're all still a bit in shock over the backlash from the "nobody was paying enough attention to anything" storm two weeks ago.

 

I ventured over to see what one of the locals, Kurt Mellish, was saying about this.  He's appended every forecast entry for Monday and Tuesday with "I first mentioned this on Friday morning" (paraphrased).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

They named it Pax because they're all still a bit in shock over the backlash from the "nobody was paying enough attention to anything" storm two weeks ago.

 

I ventured over to see what one of the locals, Kurt Mellish, was saying about this.  He's appended every forecast entry for Monday and Tuesday with "I first mentioned this on Friday morning" (paraphrased).

"I saw a model run a week before the event showing a storm, and i said there was a tiny chance. Now look at us! Man, I nailed this!" 

I actually have to admit I'm guilty of this with some of my friends.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

"I saw a model run a week before the event showing a storm, and i said there was a tiny chance. Now look at us! Man, I nailed this!" 

I actually have to admit I'm guilty of this with some of my friends.

 

It's not just that, it's also being able to say - when the city shuts down because the forecast was unspecific and city/county leaders don't know what to do when there is frozen precip falling - that you "mentioned it days ahead of time, why weren't you people listening?  This is not my fault, it's yours!". ;)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×