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POWERSTROKE

February Banter

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It would be freezing rain after 850's go positive, crippling ice storm, per Euro.

The only way an 850 layer would provide freezing rain is if all the other layers below it are above freezing. I have never seen a 1c 850 layer cause freezing rain. Ever.

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If...IF the Euro has the right idea, I don't know how upstate SC avoids a nasty ice to snow scenario. QPF would not be a concern. I don't want an ice storm. At all. Nothing anyone says will change that. I do not consider an ice storm in any way shape or form "fun" winter weather. 

 

It is dangerous, and without power, it becomes an out right pain in the ass with 3 kids and no heat.

 

I cannot relate to people who love it. I cannot understand people who would hope to experience it. They must have much less to worry about than I do. Or generators.

 

Simply put, an ice storm is an incredibly interesting weather phenomenon.  As such, they are intriguing.  They are also downright beautiful.  Liking ice storms does not also imply that you enjoy being without power or wish evil upon others.  It's the same with hurricanes.  One can appreciate the event for the sheer magnitude and awesome display of weather power without being guilty of wishing doom and destruction upon others.

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:flood:  :loon:  :snorkle:

 

 

SUNK.....

 

It certainly hasn't "sunk". In my opinion, It's more intimidating for the CAD areas now than it was.

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Simply put, an ice storm is an incredibly interesting weather phenomenon.  As such, they are intriguing.  They are also downright beautiful.  Liking ice storms does not also imply that you enjoy being without power or wish evil upon others.  It's the same with hurricanes.  One can appreciate the event for the sheer magnitude and awesome display of weather power without being guilty of wishing doom and destruction upon others.

 

I heard Charlie Brown's teacher as I read this. And I'm not sorry.

 

***EDIT***

 

And the doom and destruction always happens to some. There is always a cost for such events.

 

***EDIT EDIT***

 

Just to be clear, I never said I blamed or held ill will toward anyone who wants to see it happen. I said that I cannot relate to them.  I've been through 2 separate ice events - one where we had no power or ability to work for a week, and another that shut us down for 2 weeks. I've seen enough.

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If you look at those two panels, the 850 temp is only .7 and 1. It's really hard to get freezing rain with 850's that cold unless for some reason temps are warmer below that layer which is pretty doubtful. That's why my assumption is sleet or snow. Probably 50/50 mix until the next hour stamp where the 850 temp goes to 2.2 which would probably signal the beginning of the ZR.

 

just an fyi, You guys are debating tenths of a degree 5 days out :lol::P

 

I agree with you though..the euro would most certainly not just be mostly freezing rain in charlotte. I'm betting a look at the soundings would show quite a bit of snow and sleet before waa takes over. If a person was smart, they would listen to you. Your experience with these setups is as good as anyone.

I really try not to be critical of FFC unless really warranted but it does get really old when you see good, long range discussions from surrounding offices and we get:

 

 

 

 

Wow! Thanks, Baker. Since that was your one product to update today (since short-term and aviation was done by someone else) I'd like to personally thank you for sharing your thoughts with us! (sarcasm off).

 

Man..he really busted his ass on that one didn't he. They are better, sometimes a lot better, than they used to be. But they still take the lazy route at times. As well as just being wrong...like the previous discussion saying that last night's euro was showing rain instead of the huge hit that it really was showing.

Not for no reason was that old thread about splitting up FFC resurrected last week. :x

I've been saying they should for years. I think it's insane that there are like a dozen nws offices in places like florida, 3 in alabama, 3 in tn, 3 in south carolina, 3 in nc, etc and the list goes on and on while ffc covers 80% of the state . Check out the map below..I mean do the keys really need a nws of their own? They are so damn tiny you can't even click on their damn page and hit land! And unless there is a hurricane, their main forecasting challenges are showers over the ocean,  is partly cloudy vs mostly cloudy or highs in the upper 60s vs low 70s.

 

And Is florida so damn complicated that melbourne is incapable of covering the west coast too? And why in the hell is there a nws in newport in eastern nc? What makes that area so special they get one instead of just being covered by wilmington, rdu, and wakefield?  I don't know who or how these decisions are made but it's clear it's completely lopsided.

 

Fact is There is not a single cwa east of the ms river that extends as far south to north as ffc. BHM was broken up because it was too big and I don't understand why ffc can't be when it's even more complicated much of the time because there are higher mountains in north ga. Which makes the size of their cwa even more silly considering they have such huge differences across their cwa thanks to elevation.

 

Of course there are bigger, a lot bigger, cwa's out west but for much of the year there is nothing happening out there and the population is much less. However, I think they are probably too big too. It just seems stupid for some states/areas to have a nws around what seems like every few miles while others have to cover huge areas.

 

cwa.png

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just an fyi, You guys are debating tenths of a degree 5 days out :lol::P

 

Do I start the thread where everyone guesses their 850 temps on Tuesday? :bag:

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The only way an 850 layer would provide freezing rain is if all the other layers below it are above freezing. I have never seen a 1c 850 layer cause freezing rain. Ever.

You can think what you want but if I were you I would read your local NOAA weather discussion...

Edit: and I mean this a nice way, this could be a crazy bad ice storm for you guys.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=GSP&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

REMAINS A CONCERN WEDNESDAY AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. USING

THE ECMWF AS THE PREDOMINATE SOLUTION...PTYPE NOMOGRAM YIELDS MORE

OF A WINTRY MIX WITH FREEZING RAIN BEING THE MAIN CONCERN.

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I heard Charlie Brown's teacher as I read this. And I'm not sorry.

 

***EDIT***

 

And the doom and destruction always happens to some. There is always a cost for such events.

 

***EDIT EDIT***

 

Just to be clear, I never said I blamed or held ill will toward anyone who wants to see it happen. I said that I cannot relate to them.  I've been through 2 separate ice events - one where we had no power or ability to work for a week, and another that shut us down for 2 weeks. I've seen enough.

 

Understood.  I've been through my fair share too growing up in Lenoir (slightly NW of Hickory), and yet I'm still quite in awe of them and love the sight of the trees bent over to the ground in frozen splendor.  There were several storms during the 80s where my family lost power for a week+.  I kind of saw it as an adventure.  It's annoying to be without power for a while, but it forces you to adapt.  Huddling around the fire in the living room as a family together and camping out there for a few days brings back fond memories.  I kind of wonder what it would be like to do that today with my own kids.  My basement is possible to heat through the use of a natural gas stove we have, and we have a natural gas range/oven in the kitchen, so I'm not too worried if we would lose power for a while.  Again, it would be inconvenient, but an interesting challenge.  Plus, being as I work in education, I'd get a week off!  :)   The pay's not the greatest, but the benefits are tough to beat!

 

Oh, and maybe I sounded like Charlie Brown's teacher because I happen to share her profession... :D

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Man..he really busted his ass on that one didn't he. They are better, sometimes a lot better, than they used to be. But they still take the lazy route at times. As well as just being wrong...like the previous discussion saying that last night's euro was showing rain instead of the huge hit that it really was showing.

I've been saying they should for years. I think it's insane that there are like a dozen nws offices in places like florida, 3 in alabama, 3 in tn, 3 in south carolina, 3 in nc, etc and the list goes on and on while ffc covers 80% of the state . Check out the map below..I mean do the keys really need a nws of their own? They are so damn tiny you can't even click on their damn page and hit land! And unless there is a hurricane, their main forecasting challenges are showers over the ocean,  is partly cloudy vs mostly cloudy or highs in the upper 60s vs low 70s.

 

And Is florida so damn complicated that melbourne is incapable of covering the west coast too? And why in the hell is there a nws in newport in eastern nc? What makes that area so special they get one instead of just being covered by wilmington, rdu, and wakefield?  I don't know who or how these decisions are made but it's clear it's completely lopsided.

 

Fact is There is not a single cwa east of the ms river that extends as far south to north as ffc. BHM was broken up because it was too big and I don't understand why ffc can't be when it's even more complicated much of the time because there are higher mountains in north ga. Which makes the size of their cwa even more silly considering they have such huge differences across their cwa thanks to elevation.

 

Of course there are bigger, a lot bigger, cwa's out west but for much of the year there is nothing happening out there and the population is much less. However, I think they are probably too big too. It just seems stupid for some states/areas to have a nws around what seems like every few miles while others have to cover huge areas.

 

 

 

Yeah.  I guess what I don't like about the FCC coverage area is this - and it may be true in other extremely large (in square miles) coverage areas as well.  There are some pretty big north to south weather differences, but very often the forecast discussions very nearly ignore the mountains or include such awesomely specific phrases as "more/less/higher/lower in North Georgia and/or NGa Mountains" (no **** Sherlock, couldn't be troubled to do math? :rolleyes: ) and even to some degree ignore the mountain foothills areas north of the metro.  And it's not just the NWS that does this- media mets do too (though I'm convinced more than half of them just regurgitate NWS or info they got elsewhere).

 

I'm just a little surprised that they aren't putting more effort into the forecasts, since the spotlight is on 'em.

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Congrats Portland Oregon. For a place that averages less snow than Atlanta, they did really good.

 

Portland averages more snow than Atlanta.  The city's web site states 4.5" is their average.

 

I think Portland can go years without snowfall, but they get their share of big events to make up for it.

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Portland averages more snow than Atlanta. The city's web site states 4.5" is their average.

I think Portland can go years without snowfall, but they get their share of big events to make up for it.

No it doesn't. TWC showed Portland and the average snowfall and said the snow average is less than Atlanta.

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Interesting update from Robert on his FB page, and on his website he has some interesting thoughts on the Euro and it's past performance the past couple of years.

 

 

I lean toward the European being more stout with the wave at 96 hours in the Southwest, or west Texas. But I'm not sure it's right in holding the damming high inland so long

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Understood.  I've been through my fair share too growing up in Lenoir (slightly NW of Hickory), and yet I'm still quite in awe of them and love the sight of the trees bent over to the ground in frozen splendor.  There were several storms during the 80s where my family lost power for a week+.  I kind of saw it as an adventure.  It's annoying to be without power for a while, but it forces you to adapt.  Huddling around the fire in the living room as a family together and camping out there for a few days brings back fond memories.  I kind of wonder what it would be like to do that today with my own kids.  My basement is possible to heat through the use of a natural gas stove we have, and we have a natural gas range/oven in the kitchen, so I'm not too worried if we would lose power for a while.  Again, it would be inconvenient, but an interesting challenge.  Plus, being as I work in education, I'd get a week off!  :)   The pay's not the greatest, but the benefits are tough to beat!

 

Oh, and maybe I sounded like Charlie Brown's teacher because I happen to share her profession... :D

 

That would be fun. If we had a fireplace. We aren't on a gas line either.

 

There's really no good way to deal with it here. But, like I said, if you enjoy it that's your thing. However I'm rooting like hell for cold rain in lieu of ice.

 

Snow on the other hand...

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No it doesn't. TWC showed Portland and the average snowfall and said the snow average is less than Atlanta.

 

Well, everything I've ever seen indicates Portland averages a lot more snowfall than Atlanta.  Maybe Atlanta's median snowfall is higher.

 

http://ggweather.com/ccd/snowfall.htm

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Portland,_Oregon#Climate

 

I believe Portland was one of those cities that averaged a lot more snow than it does currently a century ago.

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Well, everything I've ever seen indicates Portland averages a lot more snowfall than Atlanta.  Maybe Atlanta's median snowfall is higher.

 

http://ggweather.com/ccd/snowfall.htm

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Portland,_Oregon#Climate

 

I believe Portland was one of those cities that averaged a lot more snow than it does currently a century ago.

Portland, OR

 

November normal snowfall:    .2 inches

December:                            1.3 inches

January:                                  .5 inches

February:                               2.1 inches

March:                                     .2 inches

________________________________

Normal Annual Snowfall:  4.3 inches.

It should be noted that snowfall in Portland is highly inconsistent.  Many years may see only a trace of snow, while others have huge snowstorms.  The photo above was taken in Clark County back in  December of 2008.  Snowfall that month broke records with 19 inches falling and a snow depth on Christmas Day of 10 inches! 

http://www.kgw.com/community/blogs/weather/Portland-Monthly-Normal-Snowfall-183820651.html

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Well, everything I've ever seen indicates Portland averages a lot more snowfall than Atlanta. Maybe Atlanta's median snowfall is higher.

http://ggweather.com/ccd/snowfall.htm

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Portland,_Oregon#Climate

I believe Portland was one of those cities that averaged a lot more snow than it does currently a century ago.

I guess they do. Still very impressive for Oregon and areas at the beach there.

Also you get extreme years of snowfall in Portland such as 2008-09 winter that skew the average.

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Portland, OR

 

November normal snowfall:    .2 inches

December:                            1.3 inches

January:                                  .5 inches

February:                               2.1 inches

March:                                     .2 inches

________________________________

Normal Annual Snowfall:  4.3 inches.

It should be noted that snowfall in Portland is highly inconsistent.  Many years may see only a trace of snow, while others have huge snowstorms.  The photo above was taken in Clark County back in  December of 2008.  Snowfall that month broke records with 19 inches falling and a snow depth on Christmas Day of 10 inches! 

http://www.kgw.com/community/blogs/weather/Portland-Monthly-Normal-Snowfall-183820651.html

 

Ah, thank you.

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There's really no good way to deal with it here. But, like I said, if you enjoy it that's your thing. However I'm rooting like hell for cold rain in lieu of ice.

..

Haha no you aren't. You know you want that ice. :)

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RDU may get 4" of snow but when the system ends as all rain what snow fell will be gone just as fast. Not going to be much of an event unless one just likes to watch it fall because it wont be sticking around.

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RDU may get 4" of snow but when the system ends as all rain what snow fell will be gone just as fast. Not going to be much of an event unless one just likes to watch it fall because it wont be sticking around.

I'm cool with that.  The 1.5" I rcvd w/ the last storm melted in a day in my yard anyway. I face SSE, and my snow melts wicked fast no matter what.

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RDU may get 4" of snow but when the system ends as all rain what snow fell will be gone just as fast. Not going to be much of an event unless one just likes to watch it fall because it wont be sticking around.

Unless there is ice on top of the snow. Rain is not going to wash away ice. By the time rain starts the damage might already be done.

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Meh. I've seen the gfs lose storms so many times, only to bring them back that it's almost a guarantee it does this at some point. I mean didn't we just do this not that long ago? The storm that brought atlanta to a stand still, the gfs had it, then lost it completely, and then slowly brought it back. At one point it had virtually zero precip even down along the gulf coast, south ga, etc. Hell even the canadian virtually lost it completely with any precip never making it north of extreme south georgia a few days before the system hit for several runs.

The fact is extremely rare for a storm to show up in the long range and the models keep it on every run for 5 days...and especially so at this range. Despite this, I'm not saying it's wrong though. I'm just stating the reality of what these models often do.

Look at how much the gfs has waffled in the last 48 hours and compare it to the euro..which really hasn't changed a hell of a lot in terms of the general idea of cad, quite a bit of precip, etc. Gfs on the other hand has gone through every possible solution in terms of sensible weather. Rain, snow, ice, to nothing at all. Gfs really should stop being run 4 times a day.

Go with the one most consistent, whether it be consistently good or bad. Until the Euro starts to consistently show less of a storm then there is more reason to be positive than negative.

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Tonight's 00z runs will be the most important model runs of our lives.  Until 12z tomorrow.

 

LOL, I am just hoping for some precip to get us a couple of inches of snow in the 84-108 hour timeframe.  That looks to be our best bet for snow, so far, unless the main energy comes out 12 hours quicker, which I guess it could.

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Yeah but rain combined with 48 degrees on Thursday and 53 on Friday sure will.

 

 

Unless there is ice on top of the snow. Rain is not going to wash away ice. By the time rain starts the damage might already be done.

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