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POWERSTROKE

February Banter

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It's mostly my fault. Sorry man. I'll take a break for the rest of the day and maybe come back strong tomorrow.... unless the 18z GFS hooks us up. :)

It's bo- time! Get you a couple of them heart shaped boberry biscuits, a gravy biscuit , and a large seasoned fry! See you back for 18z. :)

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They're talking about the winter storm on the radio now.....kiss of death. 

I've said that to myself too when i hear or see that on tv/radio.

 

It reminds me too of being scared to tell people  of a possible storm out of fear of jinxing it.

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There is just no way it's all freezing rain in Charlotte. There's going to be a significant period of sleet and or snow or both.

Per Euro, the 850's are only below 0 for the first 0.1" of precip, after that 850's are above 0 and the surface is below freezing.

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What am I missing on GSO? As far as I can see it would be mostly snow and then ZR.

Nope, 0.6" of precip falls in a 6 hour period when 850's transition from negative to positive, so guessing you get half of that as snow, so 0.3" of snow and test frzn per Euro.

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The energy in here is terrible today. I dont even know how to explain it. 

People have some funny ideas about run to run changes for a storm so far out. If it's not perfect on each run it clearly means it's going to be rain or partly sunny. :rolleyes:

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It seems there are some things being said that are really contradicting what even some mets said about the last run of the Euro.

What you cut and pasted above from what Allan said earlier is the same thing I am saying, didn't know your reading comprehension needed some work. You even bolded the parts.

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Strongly agree! It's no better coming on here and saying - all rain for NC, or of that nature when models clearly don't show that . Than coming in here posting DGEX maps as the truth!

Haha yea it's an interesting contrast, I suppose it's easier to let it fly though. People have a much better time forgiving someone who down played an event and ended up being wrong rather than the opposite. 

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Sign me up, gentlemen.  I'm on board too.  I think I'm sitting in a really nice spot this go round, not as nice as Frosty, but good nonetheless.  Here's to ending the effects of the Foothills snow shadow with a nice Miller A track!  I think this storm has potential blockbuster written all over it.

 

 

CR, since when have you begun to drink the same Kool-aid that packbacker was drinking recently?  You are beginning to sound like you are at the uttermost point of despair.  I don't recognize this side of your Internet personality, man.

 

 

Oh, and I have to side with Brick on this one against all you guys bombarding him with why this storm will suck.  I think there's a lot to be excited about this storm.  A good number of you guys are just trying soooo hard to find something bad to say about this storm.  To me, you're almost wish-casting in the opposite way from what it normally means.  You're so hell-bent on continuing to live in the "snow-life sucks" attitude that you're almost hoping you get left at the altar of a big storm again, just so you can complain about it some more.  There's a decent threat on the table, and you don't even want it.  That's beyond being level-headed and non-emotional about a storm.

I have come to realize that wanting a winter storm doesn't get you one. I am just stating facts, not opinions, I had several positive comments about this storm in the storm thread, I get no credit for those? Only reason I appear negative is that RDU hasn't had a winter storm over 2" since 2010, so what's there to be positive about? If I lived in CAE, ATL or PGV I would be more uplifting on potential events. I said this many times, NC has a chance day 4/5, after that the western part of the state is favored.

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I have come to realize that wanting a winter storm doesn't get you one. I am just stating facts, not opinions, I had several positive comments about this storm in the storm thread, I get no credit for those? Only reason I appear negative is that RDU hasn't had a winter storm over 2" since 2010, so what's there to be positive about? If I lived in CAE, ATL or PGV I would be more uplifting on potential events. I said this many times, NC has a chance day 4/5, after that the western part of the state is favored.

:lol:  Now that's funny  :lol:   

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When I see people saying "s/w" in the discussion threads, that DOES mean "shortwave", right? Which maps are shortwaves better seen on? 850, 700, 500?

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Everyone back away from the 18z GFS... now walk away, slowly

LOL, I know it squashed the southern energy but the HP seemed to hold a little longer and you didn't have that gigantic low over MN, it was much weaker. Plus it had the day 4/5 snow potential.

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When I see people saying "s/w" in the discussion threads, that DOES mean "shortwave", right? Which maps are shortwaves better seen on? 850, 700, 500?

500

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LOL, I know it squashed the southern energy but the HP seemed to hold a little longer and you didn't have that gigantic low over MN, it was much weaker. Plus it had the day 4/5 snow potential.

 

Agreed. Not a thread killer. Just another idea.

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I really try not to be critical of FFC unless really warranted but it does get really old when you see good, long range discussions from surrounding offices and we get:

 

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AS IT LOOKS TO BE
LARGELY ON TRACK. SOME INDICATION FOR LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL IN
PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA MONDAY NIGHT BUT WILL MONITOR FOR
CONSISTENCY TO INCLUDE IN FUTURE UPDATES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

BAKER

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 350 AM EST FRI FEB 7 2014/

 

Wow! Thanks, Baker. Since that was your one product to update today (since short-term and aviation was done by someone else) I'd like to personally thank you for sharing your thoughts with us! (sarcasm off).

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Per Euro, the 850's are only below 0 for the first 0.1" of precip, after that 850's are above 0 and the surface is below freezing.

If you look at those two panels, the 850 temp is only .7 and 1. It's really hard to get freezing rain with 850's that cold unless for some reason temps are warmer below that layer which is pretty doubtful. That's why my assumption is sleet or snow. Probably 50/50 mix until the next hour stamp where the 850 temp goes to 2.2 which would probably signal the beginning of the ZR.

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If you look at those two panels, the 850 temp is only .7 and 1. It's really hard to get freezing rain with 850's that cold unless for some reason temps are warmer below that layer which is pretty doubtful. That's why my assumption is sleet or snow. Probably 50/50 mix until the next hour stamp where the 850 temp goes to 2.2 which would probably signal the beginning of the ZR.

It would be freezing rain after 850's go positive, crippling ice storm, per Euro.

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The optimistic side of me thinks this is just the normal model biases at play leading into a big storm, and a trend to the euro will eventually happen. But realistically I know this is a delicate setup, any minor change in timing could lead to something even bigger or nothing at all. Interesting few days ahead.

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The optimistic side of me thinks this is just the normal model biases at play leading into a big storm, and a trend to the euro will eventually happen. But realistically I know this is a delicate setup, any minor change in timing could lead to something even bigger or nothing at all. Interesting few days ahead.

We'll see. Have heard this many times.

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I really try not to be critical of FFC unless really warranted but it does get really old when you see good, long range discussions from surrounding offices and we get:

 

 

 

 

Wow! Thanks, Baker. Since that was your one product to update today (since short-term and aviation was done by someone else) I'd like to personally thank you for sharing your thoughts with us! (sarcasm off).

 

Not for no reason was that old thread about splitting up FFC resurrected last week. :x

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 I'm curious what others think. About when was the last time there was this high of a modeled threat of a major ZR and/or IP for the main CAD region?

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Everyone back away from the 18z GFS... now walk away, slowly

Meh. I've seen the gfs lose storms so many times, only to bring them back that it's almost a guarantee it does this at some point. I mean didn't we just do this not that long ago? The storm that brought atlanta to a stand still, the gfs had it, then lost it completely, and then slowly brought  it back. At one point it had virtually zero precip even down along the gulf coast, south ga, etc. Hell even the canadian virtually lost it completely with any precip never making it north of extreme south georgia a few days before the system hit for several runs.

 

The fact is extremely rare for a storm to show up in the long range and the models keep it on every run for 5 days...and especially so at this range. Despite this, I'm not saying it's wrong though. I'm just stating the reality of what these models often do.

 

Guess we're all jumping on the Euro ship... until it sinks, hopefully the water tight doors hold.

Look at how much the gfs has waffled in the last 48 hours and compare it to the euro..which really hasn't changed a hell of a lot in terms of the general idea of cad, quite a bit of precip, etc. Gfs on the other hand has gone through every possible solution in terms of sensible weather. Rain, snow, ice, to nothing at all. Gfs really should stop being run 4 times a day.

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The GFS defies the laws of nature sometimes... but it's sorta like that cabin repress valve in Apollo 13, gets our hearts going every time!

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If...IF the Euro has the right idea, I don't know how upstate SC avoids a nasty ice to snow scenario. QPF would not be a concern. I don't want an ice storm. At all. Nothing anyone says will change that. I do not consider an ice storm in any way shape or form "fun" winter weather. 

 

It is dangerous, and without power, it becomes an out right pain in the ass with 3 kids and no heat.

 

I cannot relate to people who love it. I cannot understand people who would hope to experience it. They must have much less to worry about than I do. Or generators.

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