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POWERSTROKE

February Banter

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That's a good point about the NAM. I generally forget about it because the NAM and myself are estranged after years of abuse. I will intentionally skip the NAM and just wait for the RAP most of the time. Maybe I hope the NAM sees me having a blast with the RAP and goes home quietly wishing it hadn't screwed up our relationship while it eats a quart of Cherry Garcia.

 

On the topic of Lord ECMFW-mort, well...

 

I would love for the Euro to be right in these snow solutions. I really would. I have a folder housing crazy snow solution maps from the Euro dating back to January 2011 - like a serial stalker. Most - like 8 out of 10 (generally speaking) - were either wrong, really wrong or "meh". Part of me thinks it earned the "king" title because it nailed a storm at Christmas back in 2010. Which happened in a split flow if I'm not mistaken.

 

My whole point was that it's super easy to say that the Euro is king, and all hail the euro - and likewise for the GFS apologists. But no one can ever give me a list of actual cases or examples apart from the "Sandy" score or the "Polar Vortex" win. Not enough to pledge allegiance to it anyway. They'll throw up a verification score card, as if this were a round of golf. What they don't show is specific instances, or apples to apples (GFS runs four times a day which is ridiculous in itself).

To me they are just tools without one having more "say" than the other. They all have shown a "win" at some point for systems, even the DGEX  :wub:  :lol:  I like looking at the shorter term models to see how the medium range would line up, while also keeping an eye on the long range patterns. It has always worked well for me in trying to figure out the different possibilities  ;) 

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Well, the Euro thread stretches but holds. We live for another 12 hours!

 

I really don't know how long it's going to hold for our area.  I believe the further west the better on this storm.  At first I was watching the lakes low and now I've noticed the PV dropping south and east ever since y'all posted what HM put in the MA thread.

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You're a living dissertation for a Doctorate in Psychology. Today you're farting rainbows, tomorrow you'll be ready to slash your wrists.

 

Nope, doesn't matter to me. I'd love to get a winter storm, but life goes on either way. And right now, based on consistency, things still look good for a winter storm here next week.

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To me they are just tools without one having more "say" than the other. They all have shown a "win" at some point for systems, even the DGEX   :wub:   :lol:  I like looking at the shorter term models to see how the medium range would line up, while also keeping an eye on the long range patterns. It has always worked well for me in trying to figure out the different possibilities   ;)

 

Just don't let me see you hanging out with NAM. She is a backstabbing witch who would love to see me miserable. :)

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is the 850 line south of the charlotte metro or are we betting on the CAD being strong enough to keep temps aloft at or below freezing?  This seems to always be the biggest concern with CLT and winter weather

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I really don't know how long it's going to hold for our area.  I believe the further west the better on this storm.  At first I was watching the lakes low and now I've noticed the PV dropping south and east ever since y'all posted what HM put in the MA thread.

The models could be rushing that PV, and hopefully the SS is quicker with the energy. We need both to go our way.

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:lol:  She plays with my emotions too     :(   

 

 

don' t they all :P

 

Yes - all of them.

 

You know buckeye has been responsible for a few dudes spending several days in sweat pants, wondering what the hell just happened. :whistle:

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don' t they all :P

I know right!? 

 

Yes - all of them.

 

You know buckeye has been responsible for a few dudes spending several days in sweat pants, wondering what the hell just happened. :whistle:

I'm not saying  :P 

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For everyone west of 85 in NC I'm confident. That's at least 5 runs in a row of the euro showing a biggie

 

I'm with you, I'm about to go all in.

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Nope, doesn't matter to me. I'd love to get a winter storm, but life goes on either way. And right now, based on consistency, things still look good for a winter storm here next week.

Ok, that does it. What does your doc have you on?

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I really don't know how long it's going to hold for our area.  I believe the further west the better on this storm.  At first I was watching the lakes low and now I've noticed the PV dropping south and east ever since y'all posted what HM put in the MA thread.

 

Final call looking good. ;):D

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We had a meeting at work to discuss Inclement Weather policy and how we had the option to use pto or take leave without pay for days when we had a delayed opening (I work in a doctors office). We had this meeting because policy used to REQUIRE us to use pto; leave without pay was never an option/never allowed. I spoke up and asked what our options were if we were to close for the entire day due to inclement weather. Everyone laughed at me like I was crazy and said that they had NEVER NOT opened and never would not open. I said "There's a first time for everything". Gosh, how I would love for this to be that time.

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We had a meeting at work to discuss Inclement Weather policy and how we had the option to use pto or take leave without pay for days when we had a delayed opening (I work in a doctors office). We had this meeting because policy used to REQUIRE us to use pto; leave without pay was never an option/never allowed. I spoke up and asked what our options were if we were to close for the entire day due to inclement weather. Everyone laughed at me like I was crazy and said that they had NEVER NOT opened and never would not open. I said "There's a first time for everything". Gosh, how I would love for this to be that time.

I work for a school system here in Atlanta. I'm a 12 month employee and when we had to take off (schools were closed) I had to take two sick days to cover my time. So why when they call schools, should I be punished by having to take my own time (vacation/sick/personal) to cover the time off???

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Almost with ya both, As I sit 40 Mins N of I85 in NC...

Almost with ya..

For everyone west of 85 in NC I'm confident. That's at least 5 runs in a row of the euro showing a biggie

 

 

I'm with you, I'm about to go all in.

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I work for a school system here in Atlanta. I'm a 12 month employee and when we had to take off (schools were closed) I had to take two sick days to cover my time. So why when they call schools, should I be punished by having to take my own time (vacation/sick/personal) to cover the time off???

 

THAT was our exact argument which finally led to policy being changed. Everyone was running out of pto because we had some delayed openings and early closings. It took months before they decided to change the policy once we all started having a fit over it, but it happened. The policy used to state that absolutely NOBODY could take leave without pay for any reason at all. If you didn't have pto, then you had an unexcused absence. You are only allowed 2 of those before you get terminated.

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Come Sunday night I may have to go hunt down a good sled if this thing is still on the table.... snow to sleet to freezing rain will make for some epic sledding conditions around here.The snow triangle of death has to break down eventually!!!!

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It's funny that we have mets on the storm thread saying the Euro still shows a big snow/ice storm for most of NC, and others saying the Euro looked like nothing for NC outside the mountains and foothills.

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It's funny that we have mets on the storm thread saying the Euro still shows a big snow/ice storm for most of NC, and others saying the Euro looked like nothing for NC outside the mountains and foothills.

whats your analysis?

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whats your analysis?

 

I'm going to give my answer (not that it matters). I think it will start off as rain, turn to something frozen that night (snow, sleet, freezing rain...I don't know) creating a mess for morning travel, and then turn back over to rain...washing it all away before we even get chance to play in it.

 

But what do I know.

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Based on the consistency of the models that have been described, it still looks right now there is more evidence than not for a good winter storm.

 I used to kind of think you were picked on a little.  Now I fully understand that it is completely warranted.  I mean good gawd

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Here is are a couple of good things to count on for this storm, given the H5 setup and what's happening during the storm:

1) Count on surface temps being a couple degrees warmer for more of the event than you think.

2) Count on a warm layer in there somewhere that will give less snow than you think.

3) Count on 850s to warm just a little bit more than you think.

4) Count on a little less precipitation than you think.

If you do that, you will probably end up with a MUCH closer picture of what will really end up happening than by just looking at the direct model output.

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 I used to kind of think you were picked on a little.  Now I fully understand that it completely warranted.  I mean good gawd

 

Yes, because it is so serious to be here and to be an expert at reading the models to have an interest in the weather, winter storms, tornadoes, hurricanes, etc.

 

I am just discussing things generally and doing it in the right thread.

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